Homeowners nationwide continue to feel the mortgage “lock-in effect,” with many choosing to stay put rather than trade low pandemic-era rates for today’s higher monthly payments. A Realtor.com report found that this lock-in effect is mainly felt in expensive coastal markets, leaving homeowners “frozen” in terms of mobility and inventory growth. According to the publication, the typical U.S. mortgage holder pays about $1,300 in principal and interest per month. But if they were to purchase a home today, t ...

Core Insights - The number of Americans with mortgage rates above 6% has surpassed those with rates below 3%, marking a significant shift in the housing market dynamics [2][9][10] - This change is crucial as the ultra-low rates during the pandemic have been a key issue in the housing market, leading to a phenomenon known as the "mortgage lock-in effect" where homeowners are reluctant to sell due to the high costs of new loans [10][11] Mortgage Lock-In Effect - The "mortgage lock-in effect" has resulted in reduced housing inventory and soaring prices, as homeowners with low-rate mortgages choose to stay put rather than incur higher costs [10][11] - Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure, suggests that as average mortgage rates continue to rise, the lock-in effect may weaken, potentially increasing market inventory [11] - Daryl Fairweather from Redfin believes that while the recent shift in mortgage rate demographics may not have an immediate impact, the lock-in effect will likely remain a significant factor in the housing market for the next four to five years [11][12] Housing Market Dynamics - Approximately 40% of homes do not have a mortgage, indicating that the low liquidity of housing supply and rising prices cannot be solely attributed to the lock-in effect [13] - The median home price in the U.S. has increased by about $100,000 since 2019, now exceeding $410,000, largely due to inflation and rising labor and construction costs [13] - The lock-in effect may create a generational gap, as younger individuals feel priced out of the market due to older homeowners holding onto their low-rate mortgages [13] Future Market Predictions - Predictions for the U.S. housing market in 2026 show divergence among analysts: - Reventure forecasts stable overall home prices with regional variations, while Realtor.com anticipates a slight increase in home sales and inventory driven by new construction [13][14] - Zillow expects home sales to rise by over 4% and prices to increase by 1.2%, while the National Association of Realtors predicts a 14% increase in home sales and a 4% rise in prices [14] - Even if the lock-in effect diminishes, potential buyers may not see lower prices due to ongoing inflationary pressures [14]

Core Insights - High home prices and elevated mortgage rates present challenges for first-time homebuyers in the US, but certain cities offer better opportunities for deals according to Realtor.com's ranking [1][2] Group 1: Analysis Methodology - Realtor.com analyzed over 10,000 Census-designated places in the largest 100 metro areas, focusing on cities with at least 500 active home listings in the past year [2] - The ranking considered factors such as housing availability, the presence of young homeowners, average commute times, and affordability, with affordability being a key factor [2] Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Affordability is a significant barrier for first-time homebuyers, with the 30-year mortgage rate around 6.15% as of the last week of 2025, which is high compared to the pandemic period when rates were below 3% [3] - The median sales price of a US home was approximately $410,800 in Q2 of the previous year, nearing record highs [4] Group 3: Recommended Cities for First-Time Buyers 1. **Rochester, NY** - Median listing price: $139,900 - Estimated share of young homeowners (ages 25 to 34): 21.3% - Average commute: 21 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 23 [5][7] 2. **Harrisburg, PA** - Median listing price: $151,999 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 19.9% - Average commute: 23 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 37.9 [8][10] 3. **Granite City, IL** - Median listing price: $119,000 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 13.0% - Average commute: 25 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 47.8 [10][11] 4. **Birmingham, AL** - Median listing price: $148,950 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 18.9% - Average commute: 24 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 43.5 [12][13] 5. **North Little Rock, AR** - Median listing price: $170,000 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 17.4% - Average commute: 23 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 39.2 [14][17] 6. **Syracuse, NY** - Median listing price: $169,900 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 20.4% - Average commute: 20 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 21.0 [18][20] 7. **Baltimore, MD** - Median listing price: $223,900 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 19.1% - Average commute: 31 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 52.6 [21][22] 8. **St. Louis Park, MN** - Median listing price: $375,000 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 25.2% - Average commute: 22 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 42.4 [23][25] 9. **Pittsburgh, PA** - Median listing price: $249,000 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 23.5% - Average commute: 25 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 33.7 [26][28] 10. **Garfield Heights, OH** - Median listing price: $140,000 - Estimated share of young homeowners: 12.4% - Average commute: 24 minutes - Available inventory per 1,000 households: 50.2 [30][31]

Existing-home sales in the US barely rose in November, as a recent moderation in price growth and mortgage rates motivated buyers at the margin https://t.co/Y6IW0v7FIJ ...

Home sales rose in November for the third straight month, with lower mortgage rates injecting some fresh momentum into the long sluggish housing market https://t.co/h64ob0gSBR ...

If you’ve felt sidelined by the real estate market in years past, it’s fair to wonder whether 2026 finally looks different or whether it’s just another version of the same frustrations. The short answer is that the market does look calmer heading into 2026, but not dramatically cheaper or easier. Expert housing market predictions for 2026 suggest a market where preparation, flexibility, and local conditions are more crucial than chasing the perfect moment to buy, sell, or relocate. Mortgage rates may ea ...

Core Insights - Foreclosure activity in the U.S. has increased by 21% in November 2025 compared to the same month last year, with one in every 3,992 housing units facing foreclosure filings [2][8] - The rise in foreclosures indicates growing financial stress among households, which could affect credit conditions, housing affordability, and overall economic resilience [3][4] - The impact of rising foreclosures on housing supply will vary by state due to differences in local laws and market conditions [5][10] Foreclosure Trends - November marked the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity, reflecting a trend of normalization in the housing market amid higher housing costs and economic pressures [4][8] - States with the highest foreclosure activity include Delaware, South Carolina, Nevada, New Jersey, and Florida, with cities like Philadelphia, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Orlando, and Tampa showing elevated levels [6][8] Market Dynamics - The potential increase in housing supply due to foreclosures is expected to be localized, particularly in markets experiencing rapid delinquency and foreclosure activity [6][10] - The timeline for properties to reach the market post-foreclosure varies significantly between judicial and non-judicial states, affecting when price impacts may be observed [9][10] Demographic Insights - Rising foreclosure rates among borrowers with government-backed FHA loans highlight a growing disparity between wealthier and lower-income homebuyers [10][11]

Housing Market Challenges - Housing supply is low [1] - Many people have very low mortgage rates from the pandemic period, making it expensive to move [1][2] - The country hasn't built enough housing for a long time, leading to a housing shortage [2] - A 25 basis point (0.25%) decline in the federal funds rate may not significantly impact the housing market [1] Structural Issues - The industry lacks the tools to address a secular or structural housing shortage beyond adjusting interest rates [2] - The industry needs more housing of different kinds [2]

I wanted to ask you about how the higher inome households are really [clears throat] driving spending right now. They're backed by home equity and stock market wealth, but lower-income consumers are really struggling with the accumulation of 5 years now of rising prices. It's price levels, not really the inflation rate holding some of these families back.How sustainable is this so-called K-shaped economy and and what are the Fed's thoughts on whether that's a risk going forward. So we do um through our vast ...

For years, Ohio’s largest city was just right. It grew steadily, but never explosively. City leaders point to today’s economic growth as a source of pride.But for the city’s housing market, it is starting to look like too much of a good thing. 🔗 https://t.co/CCA8v8RPzV https://t.co/SUqFYxvJLd ...