最近和朋友们闲聊，发现大家普遍焦虑的还是房子的事儿。手里握着一百万，到底该不该咬牙买房，这问题让人左右为难。而那些已经买了房的人，又开始 担心未来的贬值风险，可谓是寝食难安。 巧的是，我之前专门研究过DeepSeek对2030年房地产市场的预测报告，结果却出乎很多人的意料，甚至有些颠覆认知。与其纠结于整体市场的涨跌，不如 把目光聚焦到关键点上。DeepSeek的预测表明，2030年一百万房产的价值，将主要取决于两个核心要素：你所购买的城市，以及房产自身的核心配套是否 足够完善。 其次，政策导向非常明确。未来将实行高端有市场、中端有支持、低端有保障的双轨制。保障性住房的供应，将会分流一部分购房需求，从而进一步削弱三 四线城市商品房的需求。 最后，大家的购房观念也在发生转变。现在的人们更加注重居住的舒适度和资源的便利性。那些配套设施落后、无人问津的房子，自然会被市场所淘汰。 先来说说第一种情况。如果你选择的是北京、上海、广州、深圳，或者成都、重庆这些核心城市，那么DeepSeek预测这类房产大概率能够保值，甚至可能 出现小幅的增值。当然，也别指望还能像过去那样动辄翻倍。按照目前的趋势估算，现在价值一百万的房子，到 ...

We recently published 9 Stocks Jim Cramer Talked About.  Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) is one of the stocks on Jim Cramer talked about. Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) is another major American homebuilder. The shares are down by 15% year-to-date and down by 10.6% since mid-December. On December 16th, Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) reported its earnings for the fiscal year 2025 and the fourth quarter. Its $9.4 billion in revenue beat estimates of $9 billion, while $1.93 in EPS missed $2.21 in estimates. Foll ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year Treasury yield is decreasing, which is expected to influence mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's rate cut [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a potential reduction in borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - The relationship between the Treasury yield and mortgage rates suggests that lower yields may lead to more favorable mortgage conditions [1]

Group 1: Price Trends in Consumer Goods - The cost of daily necessities such as rice, toiletries, cooking oil, and paper products has increased significantly, with supermarket visits now costing between 300 to 500 yuan compared to just over 200 yuan previously [1] - The price of lunch boxes has risen from 15-16 yuan to 20-25 yuan, indicating a general increase in living costs for consumers [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New housing prices have started to decline, with developers offering discounts of 15-20% to boost sales before year-end, following a disappointing sales season [5] - The increase in second-hand housing listings has led to greater negotiation power for buyers, with potential price reductions of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan [5] Group 3: Automotive Market - The automotive market is experiencing a "price drop wave," with domestic and foreign brands reducing prices, particularly electric vehicles seeing reductions of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and luxury imports by 80,000 to 100,000 yuan [7] - The decline in prices is attributed to year-end sales strategies, rapid technological advancements, and increased competition between fuel and electric vehicles [7] Group 4: Small Appliances - Small appliances such as rice cookers, vacuum cleaners, and juicers are undergoing clearance sales with average price reductions of 15-20% [10] - The clearance promotions are driven by the need for manufacturers to clear inventory and the fast-paced product updates in the small appliance sector [10] Group 5: Pork Prices - Pork prices have decreased significantly from over 30 yuan per jin to 17-18 yuan per jin, representing a drop of over 40% [13] - Factors contributing to the decline include oversupply due to increased pig farming investments, changing consumer preferences towards other meats, and sensitivity to income fluctuations among consumers [13]

Core Insights - The company reported higher revenue in the fourth quarter, indicating a positive performance in that period [1] - However, the company provided a cautious outlook for house deliveries in the new fiscal year due to soft industry demand [1] Company Performance - The company experienced an increase in revenue during the fourth quarter, suggesting strong sales or effective cost management [1] - Despite the revenue growth, the company is wary about future house deliveries, reflecting concerns about market conditions [1] Industry Outlook - The overall demand in the housing industry remains soft, which could impact future performance and delivery schedules for the company [1]

SYDNEY, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Australian home prices jumped in November but gains in Sydney and Melbourne slowed, as expectations there would be no interest ​rate cuts anytime soon undermined sentiment in those already expensive markets, property consultant Cotality said ‌on Monday. Home prices nationwide increased 1% in November from October to a median value of A$888,941 ($581,990), ‌slightly slower than the 1.1% gain the previous month, according to figures from Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Prices have ri ...

Core Insights - A significant demographic shift in the U.S. housing market is anticipated by 2032, where deaths will exceed births, impacting housing demand and preferences [1][2]. Group 1: Demographic Trends - By 2032, the U.S. will experience more deaths than births, marking a long-term trend that has been developing over the past four decades [2][3]. - This demographic change is expected to lead to lower homebuyer demand due to fewer children and declining family formation [3][7]. Group 2: Housing Demand and Preferences - The shift in demographics will likely result in increased demand for smaller homes, such as ranch-style and starter homes, while larger "McMansion" neighborhoods may struggle [3][6]. - An increase in inventory is projected as more deaths occur and Baby Boomers age out, with estimates suggesting 9 million homes could be listed by 2035 [7]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The anticipated demographic changes may lead to disinflationary or deflationary pressures on home prices over the long term [2]. - The trend of multigenerational living has surged, as families combine households to manage economic pressures, which may further influence housing dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The era of blindly buying properties for profit has ended, with significant changes in the real estate market due to intensified regulatory policies and a shift in investment strategies [1][6]. Summary by Categories Market Trends - Over the past two decades, property prices in China have surged fivefold on average, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing increases of ten to twenty times [1]. - In 2022, there were over 420 regulatory measures implemented nationwide, averaging nearly two policies per day, leading to a sluggish market and slight price declines in some cities [1]. Investment Opportunities - Future property investment should focus on selecting the right cities rather than following past trends of blind investment [3]. - Three categories of cities are identified as having potential for appreciation: 1. **Regional Center Cities**: Cities near major metropolitan areas, such as Dongguan and Huizhou near Shenzhen, which can attract population and economic transfers, boosting housing demand [5]. 2. **Key Node Cities within Urban Clusters**: Cities that are part of urban clusters, like those in the Pearl River Delta, benefiting from improved transportation links and economic growth driven by core cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [5]. 3. **True Central Cities**: Major economic hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, along with other notable cities like Wuhan and Chengdu, which possess strong economic foundations and growth potential [6]. Conclusion - The previous strategy of investing in third- and fourth-tier cities may yield limited returns due to rising holding costs and stagnant price growth, making it essential to carefully select cities from the identified categories for future investment opportunities [6].

Core Insights - The median age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high of 40 years in 2025, significantly increasing from the late 20s in the 1980s, indicating a shift in homeownership trends [2][5] - The rising age of first-time homeownership reflects the growing challenges in achieving the "American dream," despite a generally prosperous economy [3] Economic Implications - Homeownership has transitioned from a standard milestone to an almost unaffordable luxury, particularly exacerbated by the pandemic [4] - Monthly mortgage payments have surged to a median of $3,106, nearly double the $1,597 payment recorded in January 2020, driven by soaring home prices and mortgage rates between 6% and 7% [4] Financial Barriers - First-time buyers face multiple financial obstacles, including high rent and student loan payments, which hinder their ability to save for down payments [5] - The proportion of first-time homebuyers has dropped to 21% of home sales, a record low, compared to around 40% before the 2008 housing crash [5]

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton experienced a decline in fourth-quarter profit due to ongoing affordability concerns affecting home buyers [1] Company Summary - D.R. Horton recorded a lower profit in the fourth quarter, indicating challenges in the housing market [1] - The decrease in profit is attributed to persistent affordability issues that are deterring potential home buyers [1] Industry Summary - The housing market is facing significant affordability challenges, which are impacting buyer sentiment and overall sales [1] - Ongoing concerns about home affordability may lead to a slowdown in housing demand, affecting companies like D.R. Horton [1]