Inna Kelly, a Morgan Stanley veteran advisor whose practice is based in San Francisco, has shepherded lots of early tech employees through their equity compensation journeys—and she is quite familiar with one of their biggest blind spots. Many of these clients "don't realize the significant work that needs to be done before their three- or four-year vesting period,†says Kelly, a Barron's Hall of Fame advisor whose five-person team manages $2 billion. "Even in private companies without liquidity options, the ...

Core Insights - The markets have weathered significant policy changes in 2025, and while there are catalysts to watch in 2026, the major policy decisions have largely been made [2][4] - Economic actors' responses to existing policies will be more influential than new policy choices in 2026, with AI capital expenditures expected to contribute 20-25% to growth [3][4] - The Supreme Court's decisions on tariffs and Fed independence could impact fixed income markets, but existing executive authority may maintain policy continuity regardless of midterm election outcomes [6][7][8] Policy and Economic Outlook - Tariffs are currently four to five times higher than previous levels, and tax incentives from recent legislation are expected to positively influence corporate earnings and equity markets [2][4] - The potential for a Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority may lead the White House to seek alternative measures, suggesting limited changes in policy impact [6] - The ongoing tension between federal and local regulations regarding AI development is a critical theme, with expectations of approximately $3 trillion in capital expenditures over the next few years, including $1.5 trillion in debt financing [10][11]

Core Insights - The credit markets are experiencing a significant uptick in activity, particularly in high yield and loan volumes, indicating a strong market sentiment [2][3] - M&A activity has increased by 8%, which is seen as a positive indicator for credit market volumes, as these transactions are often financed through credit [3][15] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut could lower the cost of capital, benefiting borrowers and overall market conditions [4][5] Credit Market Dynamics - Credit market volumes have risen notably since "liberation day," with tight spreads and active participation from borrowers and issuers [2] - There is a significant demand for financing in infrastructure and energy transition, with estimates of a $100 trillion capital requirement [7][11] - The private credit market is growing rapidly, with a current valuation of $1 trillion, while public markets are valued at approximately $2.6 trillion [10][11] M&A and Investment Trends - Large M&A transactions, particularly those over $10 billion, have seen a year-over-year increase of 100% to 130%, marking the best performance in five years [13][15] - The equity capital markets are also performing well, with September recording the best start since 2012, indicating strong investor confidence [15][16] - The convergence of public and private markets is being actively pursued, with new organizational structures being created to address client needs [10][11]