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固定收益部市场日报-20251110
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-10 08:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asia IG space was unchanged to 2bps tighter overall this morning, led by MEITUAs and CCAMCLs [4] - China's exports contraction in Oct underscores rising growth pressure in 4Q, and the country is on track for price reflation [4] - Macau gaming bonds are considered lower - beta and good carry plays, with MPEL and STCITY being top picks [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, new CCAMCL 28 and CCAMCL Float 30 tightened 6bps from RO at T + 80 and SOFR + 100 respectively. Sellers were seen on existing CCAMCL 27 - 28s. The secondary China IG space was 1 - 4bps wider [2] - The MEITUA curve widened by 2 - 4bps. NSINTW 41 was 4bps wider, and the rest of TW lifers traded 1 - 2bps wider. NWDEVLs were 0.7pt lower to 1pt higher [2] - EHICAR 26 - 27 were 0.3pt higher. EHICAR is preparing to refinance EHICAR 26 - 27 through onshore loans and a new offshore bond issuance [2] - In Macau gaming, MGMCHI 26 - 31s/SANLTD 27 - 31s/STCITY 28 - 29s/ WYNMAC 27 - 34s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher, while MPEL 27 - 32s were 0.3pt lower to 0.1pt higher [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 edged 0.5 - 0.7pt higher, and GRNLGR 29 lost 2.2pts [2] - In Korea space, HYNMTRs/KORELEs traded two ways but closed largely unchanged. Japan IG space was unchanged to 3bps wider with selling flows on NTT/KUB [2] - Japanese and Yankee AT1s insurance hybrids were stable. The SEA IG space was unchanged to a touch wider. Small buying was seen on OCBCSP 35s from PBs. MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher [2] - VLLPM 27 - 29s were 0.8pt lower to 0.2pt higher [2] - There were thin two - way interests in LGFVs. RMs continued to seek CNH onshore AAA - guaranteed issues, while lower - yielding CNH names remained heavy. Higher - yielding LGFVs remained sporadic. CDECST 6 1/2 11/18/27 gained 0.9pt [3] Desk Analyst Comments - NWDEVL launched holistic exchange offers for all of its 5 perps and 6 USD bonds with a total outstanding amount of cUSD6.8bn to exchange into a new perp with an initial coupon rate of 9% and a bond due 2031 with a coupon rate of 7%. The maximum new perp and bond to be issued will be USD1.9bn [8] - The exchange considerations include 2 cash pts for perp holders but no upfront cash for bondholders. Exchanging perps is NWD's priority, and if the exchange offers succeed, it will help NWD reduce net debts and net coupon payments by 7 - 7.5% and c1% respectively on a pro - forma basis [8] - MPEL and STCITY had solid 3Q25 results, and their active liability management supports their credit profiles. MPEL and STCITY are top picks in the Macau gaming sector, and WYNMAC 27 and 29 are yield pick - up plays [10] - In 3Q25, MPEL reported an 11.4% yoy increase in operating revenue to USD1.3bn and adj. EBITDA up 16.3% to USD352mn. However, its GGR market share declined [13] - COD Macau delivered strong adj. EBITDA in 3Q25, up 27.1% yoy to USD207mn. Hotel occupancy improved, and RevPAR increased [14] - Studio City's adj. EBITDA up 12.8% yoy to USD105mn in 3Q25, supported by higher mass table hold and strong slot performance. Non - gaming revenue was solid [15] - MPEL closed some satellite casinos and Mocha clubs in Sep'25, and more closures are expected. Resource reallocation is expected to have an immaterial impact on operating performance [16] - Near - term revenue growth catalysts for MPEL include newly opened facilities and ongoing conversions. As of Sep'25, MPEL held USD1.5bn cash and USD2.6bn undrawn facilities [17][18] - Total debts of MPEL stood at USD7.5bn as of Sep'25. Studio City repaid a bond in 3Q25, and MPEL redeemed bonds in Sep'25, reducing near - term refinancing risk [19] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (+0.13%), Dow (+0.16%) and Nasdaq (-0.21%) were mixed. 2/5 year UST yield was lower, and 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.55%/3.67%/4.11%/4.70% [7] China Economy - China's exports slumped to negative in Oct, with notable drops to developed countries and moderation to emerging markets. Trade surplus dropped 5.9% to US$90.1bn, indicating 4Q25 GDP faces downward pressure [21][22] - Imports moderated in Oct, dragged by intermediate products. The narrowing trade surplus and weaker durable goods consumption weighed on growth [24][25] - China is expected to face growth headwinds in 4Q, and policymakers may introduce more moderate easing measures. Export growth is expected to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, and import growth may slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. USD/RMB rates may appreciate [21][26] - China's CPI YoY recovered to 0.2% in Oct from -0.3% in Sep, above market expectation. Core CPI continued to pick up, and food price increased. PPI marked the first positive MoM growth in a year and narrowed its YoY contraction [28][29] - Demand - driven reflation is likely to be more sustainable than supply - induced price increases. Policymakers may enhance fiscal support for households and the real estate sector in 4Q25. A 10bps LPR cut and 50bps RRR cut are expected by the central bank in Nov or Dec [32][33] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Jingfa Overseas Investment issued 82mn USD in 3 - year bonds with a 4.3% coupon and was priced at 4.3%, unrated [35] - Pipeline: The Government of HKSAR plans to issue 3 - year bonds, rated Aa3/AA +/AA - [36] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 59 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB51bn. Month - to - date, 447 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB512bn, a 42.3% yoy increase [37] - Danantara will invest IDR 20tn (cUSD1.2bn) to build chicken farms in Indonesia [37] - Dalian Wanda will open four Wanda Plazas in Dec'25 [37] - ReNew secured USD331mn in debt financing from the Asian Development Bank for a renewable project [37] - JSW Group plans to set up a battery cell manufacturing joint venture in India [37] - Nomura scraps the plan to reactivate the London proprietary trading desk [37] - Media reported NWD has no plans for another LME, and NWD/Chinachem's K11 Art Mall sale talks are on hold [37] - Power Finance 1HFY26 interest income rose 12.8% yoy to INR563.3bn (cUSD6.4bn) [37] - SJM's satellite casino Casino Legend Palace will stop operation on 12 Nov'25 at 11.59pm [37] - Nvidia asks TSMC to ramp up chip supplies [37] - Thai Oil 9M25 EBITDA fell 25.2% yoy to THB11.6bn (cUSD359mn) [37] - Vedanta Resources formed a new US - based unit to control mines in Zambia, and Adani Enterprises is the highest bidder to acquire Jaiprakash Associates [37]
对中国和印度的商场持乐观态度-_2025_ Positive on Malls in China and India
2025-09-08 06:23
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Gaming, Lodging, and Real Estate in Asia Pacific, specifically China and India malls [1][11][24] - **Market Sentiment**: Positive outlook on luxury malls in China due to rising inbound tourism and GST cuts benefiting Indian malls [1][11] Core Insights - **Chinese Luxury Malls**: Expected to benefit from an increase in inbound tourists, leading to improved retail sales [1][11][31] - **Indian Malls**: Anticipated benefits from GST rate rationalization, which is expected to enhance consumption [1][11][57] - **SJM Holdings**: Projected to continue losing market share, with high leverage and no expected dividends, making it less attractive [18][19][21] Financial Performance - **Wynn Macau**: Positive outlook with expected GGR growth of +15% YoY in 2H25, supported by a high dividend yield of 6% [13][17] - **HLP (Hang Lung Properties)**: Upgraded to "Overweight" with a compelling valuation of 0.3x P/B and a 6.5% yield, driven by improving luxury retail sales [11][24][30] - **SHKP (Sun Hung Kai Properties)**: Reported flat EPS/DPS for FY25, with a stable outlook and significant unbooked sales expected to recognize in FY26 [41][45] Market Dynamics - **RevPAR Trends**: 3Q25 RevPAR decline is leisure-driven, but caution is advised for 4Q25 as YoY weakness may widen again [1][48] - **GST Rate Changes in India**: Expected to lower construction costs and positively impact retail consumption, particularly in malls [57][58] Additional Insights - **Luxury Retail in China**: The luxury retail market is recovering, with Plaza 66 in Shanghai seeing an 80% YoY increase in tax-free shopping sales [31][32] - **Future Growth Drivers**: New projects like Westlake 66 in Hangzhou are expected to contribute to growth with minimal capex [32] - **Investor Queries**: Questions raised about the sustainability of growth in Macau and the performance of various developers in the context of market conditions [3][12][54] Performance Metrics - **Market Movements**: The Hang Seng Index and India's Sensex saw slight declines, while specific stocks like HLP and NWD showed significant movements [13][26] - **Stock Recommendations**: Positive recommendations for Wynn Macau, HLP, Link REIT, and Prestige, with varying degrees of expected growth and yield [13][24][54] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gaming, lodging, and real estate sectors in Asia Pacific is cautiously optimistic, with specific opportunities identified in luxury retail and the impact of regulatory changes in India. The performance of individual companies varies significantly, with some showing strong potential for growth while others face challenges.