Vi e w p o i n t | 27 Nov 2025 22:58:53 ET │ 48 pages China Consumer Sector Top Buys with Five Investment Themes CITI'S TAKE After hosting 44 China consumer companies during Citi's 2025 China Conference in Nov, we have identified 5 themes of investing in China consumer sector (detailed below). Our updated sector Top Buys -- In Consumer-Discretionary space: Anta (2020.HK), Pop Mart (9992.HK), Atour (ATAT.O), Haier (6690.HK) & Midea (300.HK); In Consumer-Staple space: CR Beer (291.HK), Eastroc (605499.SS) & G ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall strength, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.15% at 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.02% to 12907.83 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% to 3044.69 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7973 trillion yuan [1] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, led by retail stocks, saw significant late-session gains. Notable stocks such as Hai Xin Food and Kai Chun Co. reached their daily limit up. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for a noticeable optimization of the supply structure by 2027 and a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [2] AI Industry - CPO concept stocks and AI-related stocks remained active, with several companies like Chang Guang Hua Xin and Sai Wei Electronics hitting their daily limit up. Alibaba's CEO indicated a sustained demand for AI resources, predicting a supply-demand imbalance for the next three years. Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue increasing for nine consecutive quarters [4][5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector experienced strong gains, particularly in innovative drugs and vaccine concepts. Companies like Yue Wannianqing and Huaren Health reached their daily limit up. The small nucleic acid drug field is gaining attention due to recent global advancements, with expectations for significant growth driven by technological breakthroughs and commercialization [7]

Core Insights - Sonder (SOND) shares experienced a significant increase, more than doubling on November 20, driven by speculative momentum and retail enthusiasm rather than fundamental improvements [1][5][6] - The stock is currently trading below $1, categorizing it as a penny stock, which is known for high volatility and limited institutional support [5][6] - The company has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and has ceased operations, indicating severe financial distress [3][4] Company Financial Status - Sonder has liabilities that far exceed its assets, with no clear path to recovery, making it unlikely for equity holders to see any residual value [3][4] - The company is involved in a legal battle with Marriott International, which adds to its financial challenges [4] Market Behavior - The recent surge in SOND shares resembles a meme stock rally characterized by massive trading volume, lack of news, and social media hype [5][6] - Such rallies are typically short-lived and can lead to sharp reversals, posing risks for latecomers [6] Analyst Coverage - Wall Street analysts have ceased coverage of Sonder shares, resulting in no updated earnings estimates or price targets, leaving retail investors without guidance [7][8]

Group 1: Sanmina (SANM) - Sanmina is a global provider of electronics contract manufacturing services [1] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 38.9% over the last 60 days [1] - Sanmina has a PEG ratio of 0.66 compared to the industry average of 1.82 [1] - The company possesses a Growth Score of A [1] Group 2: H World Group Limited Sponsored ADR (HTHT) - H World Group is involved in the hotel industry [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 3.1% over the last 60 days [2] - H World Group has a PEG ratio of 1.26 compared to the industry average of 1.97 [2] - The company possesses a Growth Score of B [2] Group 3: Allstate (ALL) - Allstate is the third-largest property-casualty insurer and the largest publicly-held personal lines carrier in the U.S. [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 26.9% over the last 60 days [3] - Allstate has a PEG ratio of 0.58 compared to the industry average of 1.75 [3] - The company possesses a Growth Score of B [3]

Core Insights - Three stocks are highlighted with strong growth characteristics and buy ranks for investors to consider on November 17th: Micron Technology, Alarm.com, and H World Group Limited [1][2][3] Company Summaries - **Micron Technology (MU)**: - Recognized as a leading provider of semiconductor memory solutions - Holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 23.5% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio stands at 0.53, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.50 - Growth Score is A [1][2] - **Alarm.com (ALRM)**: - Provides interactive security solutions for home and business owners - Also carries a Zacks Rank 1 - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 3.4% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio is 1.61, compared to the industry average of 3.09 - Growth Score is B [2] - **H World Group Limited Sponsored ADR (HTHT)**: - Engaged in the hotel industry - Maintains a Zacks Rank 1 - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 3.1% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio is 1.23, lower than the industry average of 1.99 - Growth Score is B [3]

Core Insights - HG Vora Capital Management has completely exited its position in MGM Resorts International, liquidating 1.5 million shares valued at approximately $51.6 million during the third quarter [2][6][7] - MGM's stock price as of the latest market close was $32.47, reflecting a 13% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's nearly 15% return in the same timeframe [3][4] Company Overview - MGM Resorts International operates a diversified portfolio of casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts, primarily in the U.S. and Macau, focusing on integrated resort experiences [5] - The company reported a market capitalization of $8.9 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $17.3 billion and a net income of $69.7 million [4] Financial Performance - MGM's consolidated net revenue increased by only 2% year-over-year to $4.3 billion, with adjusted EBITDA declining from $574 million to $506 million [7] - The company experienced a net loss of $285 million, largely due to a $256 million goodwill impairment related to its Empire City decision [7] - Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR fell by 18%, and adjusted EPS decreased from $0.54 to $0.24 [9] Market Position and Strategy - MGM's strategy emphasizes capturing both traditional and digital gaming demand through its scale, brand recognition, and presence in key gaming markets [5] - Despite the challenges, MGM China reported a 17% revenue growth, and BetMGM raised its full-year guidance, indicating some positive momentum [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's core FFO was negative $10.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to negative $11.5 million in the prior year, indicating a slight improvement [17] - Overall net operating income (NOI) was $7 million, down from $9.8 million in the previous quarter [6][7] - The company reported a negative FFO of $11.1 million, or negative $14.75 per diluted share, compared to negative $28.4 million in the prior year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Office segment NOI decreased to $5 million in Q3 2025 from $5.4 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to lower rental revenues and occupancy declines [14][15] - Hotel NOI was $850,000 in Q3 2025, down from $1 million in the prior year, impacted by renovation disruptions [16] - Multifamily segment NOI increased to $792,000 in Q3 2025 from $508,000 in the prior year, driven by lower real estate taxes [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Multifamily occupancy at 701 South Hudson improved to approximately 81% from 68% at the end of the second quarter [9] - San Francisco experienced a third-quarter rent growth of 5.2%, the strongest year-over-year growth rate since 2015 [11] - The office portfolio was 73.6% leased at the end of Q3 2025, with a notable increase to 86.6% when excluding one Oakland property [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening liquidity and balance sheet while growing its multifamily business [4] - A definitive agreement was made to sell the lending business for approximately $44 million, considered a non-core asset [5] - The company aims to benefit from a recovering commercial real estate market, supported by lower interest rates and increased office leasing activity [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about improving cash flow in 2026, driven by office leasing activity, hotel renovations, and multifamily performance [8] - The company believes headwinds from COVID are largely behind, with return-to-office trends creating positive momentum [12] - Management anticipates meaningful opportunities for multifamily NOI growth through rising rents and improved occupancy [11] Other Important Information - Barry Berlin, the CFO, will step down following the sale of the lending division, with Brandon Hill set to assume the role [8] - The company is nearing completion of an $11 million renovation at the Sheraton Grand Sacramento, funded through various sources [12] Q&A Session Summary - There were no questions during the Q&A session, leading to the conclusion of the conference [21]

Core Viewpoint - Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB) shows potential as a stock pick due to surpassing key technical resistance levels, indicating a bullish trend [1][2]. Technical Analysis - PEB has recently surpassed the 50-day moving average, a significant indicator of support and resistance, suggesting a short-term bullish trend [1][2]. - Over the past four weeks, PEB's stock price has increased by 10.8%, reflecting positive momentum [2]. Earnings Estimates - There have been five upward revisions in earnings estimates for PEB for the current fiscal year, with no downward revisions, indicating strong investor confidence [3]. - The consensus earnings estimate for PEB has also increased, further supporting the bullish outlook [3]. Investment Consideration - Given the positive technical indicators and favorable earnings estimate revisions, PEB is recommended for inclusion on investors' watchlists [3].

Group 1 - Jim Cramer highlighted Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR) as a well-run company in the travel sector, emphasizing its consistent performance despite skepticism from detractors [2][3] - Cramer noted that Marriott continues to deliver strong results, countering the narrative that the latest quarter would be the last good one for the company [2][3] - The market's reaction to travel and leisure stocks, including Marriott, has been volatile, with Cramer expressing confusion over Marriott's decline in stock price despite positive trends in other sectors, such as American Express reaching an all-time high [3] Group 2 - Cramer believes that the travel industry has been permanently altered by COVID-19, which has implications for companies like Marriott [3] - While acknowledging Marriott's potential as an investment, there is a suggestion that certain AI stocks may offer greater returns with less risk [3]

Core Insights - Norwegian Cruise Line's shares fell despite reporting record revenues for the third quarter, as the market was disappointed by lowered full-year net yield expectations and revenue misses [1] - The company is focusing on attracting premium families, which are expected to spend more on board, enhancing profitability [2] Financial Performance - Norwegian Cruise Line reported its best third quarter ever, with record revenues, but still saw a 14.5% drop in stock price [1] - The company experienced a margin expansion of 600 basis points since the end of 2023 and projects growth in the coming years [1] Market Dynamics - The cruise industry is witnessing strong demand, but high investor expectations are not being met, leading to stock declines across major cruise lines [1] - The focus on premium families is a strategic shift, as these families are willing to spend on additional excursions and experiences [2] Future Outlook - Norwegian plans to increase capacity by 7% by 2026 with new ships coming online [1] - Group business in Las Vegas is fully booked for 2026, indicating confidence in the upscale travel segment [5]