The author has an honours degree in economics and politics with a focus on economic development. With 36 years of experience in executive management he has extensive knowledge of insurance/reinsurance, Global and Asia Pacific markets, climate change and ESG. He invests in his personal capacity.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call op ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's extensive experience in executive management, particularly in the insurance and reinsurance sectors, as well as knowledge of global and Asia Pacific markets, climate change, and ESG [1]. Group 1 - The author holds an honours degree in economics and politics with a focus on economic development [1]. - With 36 years of experience, the author has developed extensive knowledge in various relevant fields [1]. Group 2 - The author is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice, sharing analysis solely for reader interest [3]. - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are made [4].

Focus of Article: The focus of PART 1 of this article is to analyze Rithm Capital Corp.’s (RITM) recent results and compare several of the company’s metrics to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers. This analysis will show past and current data with supporting documentation. Table 1a will compare RITM’s investment composition, recent leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and change in investment portfolio size to the 17 mREIT peers. Table 1b will compare RITM’s BV, economic return (loss), and p ...

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. is a publicly traded mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) known for its attractive long-term returns and high dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors [1][2] Dividend Policy - AGNC has a monthly dividend yield of 14.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.7%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [2] - The company has a record of consistent dividend payments, as U.S. law mandates REITs to distribute 90% of their annual taxable income as dividends [2] Share Repurchase Plan - In October 2024, AGNC's board terminated its existing stock repurchase plan and authorized a new plan to repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock through December 31, 2026 [4] - The buyback strategy aims to enhance shareholder value by repurchasing shares when the price is below the estimated tangible net book value per share [4] Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, AGNC's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $7.2 billion, an increase from $6.4 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a sustainable capital distribution plan [5] - The company benefits from relatively lower mortgage rates, which may ease operational and funding pressures, potentially widening net interest spreads and boosting profitability [6] Competitive Landscape - AGNC competes with peers like Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) in maintaining shareholder returns through dividends [7] - Annaly has a dividend yield of 13.4% and a strong liquidity position with $8.8 billion in total assets, while Arbor Realty has a lower yield of 12.6% and a weaker liquidity position [8][10] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, AGNC shares have increased by 21.9%, outperforming the industry average rise of 8.1% [11] - AGNC trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.2X, above the industry average of 1X, indicating a premium valuation [15]

Group 1 - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) was previously rated as a sell due to high yield concerns, and the stock has since declined [1] - The analysis emphasizes caution when investing in high-yield stocks, suggesting a hands-off approach [1] Group 2 - Trapping Value is a team of analysts with over 40 years of combined experience focusing on options income and capital preservation [2] - The Conservative Income Portfolio, managed by Trapping Value in partnership with Preferred Stock Trader, includes two income-generating portfolios and a bond ladder [2] - The Covered Calls Portfolio aims for lower volatility income investing, while the fixed income portfolio targets high income potential securities that are undervalued [2]

Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive loss of $(0.77) per share [6] - The economic return on book value was (6.3)% [6] - Excluding litigation settlement expense, the economic return on book value was 7.6% [6] - A common stock dividend of $0.34 per share was declared [6, 13] Portfolio Composition - The investment portfolio totaled $13.5 billion [6] - The portfolio composition included Agency RMBS of $6.5 billion, MSR of $2.6 billion, and cash & cash equivalents of $0.8 billion [18] - The company's economic debt-to-equity ratio was 7.2x [6] MSR Portfolio - The fair value of the MSR portfolio was $2.627 billion [41] - The UPB (Unpaid Principal Balance) of the MSR portfolio was $177.216 billion [41] - The weighted average 3-month CPR (Conditional Prepayment Rate) for the MSR portfolio was 6.0% [41]

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1][2] - The analysis focuses on RITM's recent results, dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [3][4] Summary of RITM's Performance - RITM's book value as of June 30, 2025, is compared to its peers, aiding in understanding its financial standing [2] - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q2 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend yield of 8.92% [16][28] - The annual forward yield based on RITM's stock price as of June 20, 2025, is also 8.92%, while the yield based on its book value is 7.87% [16] Dividend Sustainability Analysis - RITM's dividend sustainability is assessed through its core earnings, with a current payout ratio of 46% for Q2 2025, indicating a strong ability to maintain dividends [23][24] - The article projects a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [30] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) for Q1 and Q2 2025 are reported at $275.3 million and $291.1 million, respectively, with earnings per share of $0.52 and $0.54 [23] Comparative Metrics - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield are noted to be below average compared to its peers, indicating potential for future adjustments [28] - The analysis includes a comparison of RITM's leverage ratio, which is lower than that of its peer PMT, suggesting a conservative approach to risk management [17] Future Outlook - The article anticipates a gradual increase in net interest spreads starting in late 2025, which could positively impact RITM's earnings and dividend sustainability [25] - RITM's stock price as of September 19, 2025, was $12.11, with projections indicating a price target of approximately $14.35 per share, suggesting potential for appreciation [34][37]

Core Insights - Orchid Island Capital (ORC) and AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) are prominent players in the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) sector, both providing attractive long-term returns and substantial dividend yields. The analysis aims to determine which company presents a better investment opportunity at this time [1]. AGNC Investment Corp. - AGNC employs an active portfolio-management strategy, regularly adjusting its holdings and implementing hedges to adapt to market changes, which positions it defensively against volatility [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, AGNC has hedged 89% of its outstanding balance in Investment Securities Repo, TBA position, and other debt, which may enhance cash flow stability and support long-term growth [3]. - The company holds $73.3 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), benefiting from GSE guarantees, which makes these investments relatively safer despite market volatility [4]. - AGNC's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, stood at $6.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a modest increase in leverage to 7.6 times [5]. - The current dividend yield for AGNC is 14.4%, although it has not increased its dividend in the past five years [6]. Orchid Island Capital - ORC focuses exclusively on Agency residential MBS, which limits credit risks but increases sensitivity to interest rate changes and prepayments [7]. - The recent decline in mortgage rates is expected to improve ORC's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten, enhancing net interest spread and overall portfolio yield [8]. - ORC currently boasts a dividend yield of 20.6% and has increased its dividend three times in the past five years, supported by a strong liquidity position of $492.5 million [10]. - Earnings for ORC are projected to surge by 450% in 2025 and 40% in 2026, significantly outpacing AGNC's expected declines [9][24]. Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, AGNC shares rose by 8.1%, while ORC shares increased by 4.3%, compared to the industry's growth of 5.2% [11]. - ORC is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 0.88X, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 1.07X, while AGNC trades at a premium with a P/TB of 1.24X [13][16]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates AGNC's earnings will decline by 15.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, while ORC's earnings are expected to rise by 450% and 39.7% in the same years [19][20][21]. Conclusion - While AGNC remains a reliable mREIT with a disciplined strategy and steady dividends, ORC presents a more compelling opportunity for income-seeking investors due to its higher dividend yield, strong liquidity, and significant earnings growth potential [22][24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment analysis of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) and compares it with Rithm Capital, suggesting that investors interested in mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) should consider holding Rithm instead of NLY [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is analyzed in the context of its performance against Rithm Capital, indicating a preference for Rithm for mREIT investments [1]. - The analysis highlights the importance of dynamic asset allocation in generating high income and growth while managing isolated risks [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst, Sensor Unlimited, has a PhD in financial economics and has spent a decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry [2]. - The focus of the analyst's work includes asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, financial sectors, and housing markets [2].

Core Insights - The article focuses on analyzing Rithm Capital Corp.'s (RITM) recent performance compared to 17 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) peers, highlighting key metrics such as investment composition, leverage, hedging coverage ratio, and economic returns [1][2][3]. Investment Composition and Performance - As of June 30, 2025, RITM's investment portfolio consisted of 20% fixed-rate agency MBS, 0% variable-rate agency MBS, 36% mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and 44% non-agency MBS and other mortgage-related investments [17][19]. - RITM's total MSR sub-portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $865 billion, reflecting a significant increase from $648 billion a year prior, largely due to acquisitions [37][38]. Leverage and Hedging - RITM's on-balance sheet leverage ratio was 2.5x, with an at-risk leverage ratio of 0.9x as of June 30, 2025, indicating a slight decrease in leverage compared to the previous quarter [19][20]. - The hedging coverage ratio for RITM was 44% as of June 30, 2025, which is geared towards lower mortgage interest rates, allowing the company to maintain stability in its book value (BV) during fluctuating interest rate environments [46][53]. Economic Returns - RITM achieved a trailing 24-month economic return of 20.97%, outperforming all covered mREIT peers, with the average returns for various classifications being significantly lower [51]. - The company's BV increased by 2.58% from Q1 to Q2 2025, driven by a minor increase in mortgage interest rates and a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, resulting in an economic return of 4.60% for Q2 2025 [20][21]. Valuation and Market Position - As of September 5, 2025, RITM's stock price was $12.62, trading at a 2.55% discount to the estimated current BV of $12.95, suggesting a slightly undervalued position compared to peers [48][49]. - RITM's diversified investment strategy, including MSR and other mortgage-related assets, positions it favorably to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns across various interest rate scenarios [56].