Key Takeaways Q4 oil slumped on oversupply, while gas surged on LNG demand and winter boost.Q4 earnings for the Energy sector are seen up 14% YoY despite flat revenues and pricing strain.PBA, CTRA and LNG show weak ESP signals, limiting clear beat visibility.We are entering the thick of the fourth quarter earnings season for the Oil/Energy sector, with some of the S&P 500 companies expected to come up with results tomorrow. Energy investors are bracing for a mixed but potentially rewarding stretch. Oil pric ...

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 earnings season for Oil/Energy companies is underway, with many companies exceeding expectations despite falling oil prices [1][2] - Improved natural gas prices have helped offset some weaknesses in crude oil, leading to a more resilient sector performance than anticipated [2][8] Revenue & Earnings Analysis - Year-over-year comparison shows a decline in average monthly WTI crude prices from $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel in Q3 2024 to $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel in Q3 2025, indicating a weaker oil price environment [4] - In contrast, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices increased from $2.07, $1.99, and $2.28 in Q3 2024 to $3.20, $2.91, and $2.97 in Q3 2025, reflecting positive signals for natural gas [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience a 4.9% decline in earnings compared to Q3 2024, while revenues are expected to increase by 1% [6] Company Performance Highlights - Approximately 37.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, showing a 49.6% year-over-year earnings increase with a 5% rise in revenues [7] - Nearly 78% of companies have exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a broadly strong earnings season [8] Stock Recommendations - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6, with a historical earnings surprise of 7.1% on average [12] - Delek US Holdings (DK) has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +98.57%, set to release results on Nov. 7, with an average earnings surprise of 16.1% [13] - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +29.48%, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7, but has a historical average earnings surprise of -104.8% [14][15] - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with earnings release on Nov. 6, and an average earnings surprise of 23.8% [16]