Zillow Group (NasdaqGS:Z) FY Conference February 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsJeremy Hofmann - CFOConference Call ParticipantsNikhil Devnani - Senior Analyst of US Emerging InternetNikhil Devnani.....Bernstein's TMT Conference.Jeremy HofmannThanks for having me.Nikhil DevnaniAbsolutely.Jeremy HofmannYeah.Nikhil DevnaniI'm sure many of you in the room already know Zillow. It is one of the leading online portals to search, discover, and now increasingly transact when you're in the home buying proc ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue of $736 million in Q4, representing a 20% quarter-over-quarter decline, which was better than the anticipated 35% decline [29] - GAAP gross profit was $57 million in Q4, compared to $66 million in Q3, with a GAAP gross margin of 7.7%, up 50 basis points sequentially [30] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $43 million, compared to $33 million in Q3, exceeding the favorable end of the guidance range [31] - The net loss for Q4 was $1.1 billion, including a $933 million non-cash loss from convertible note refinancing [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased home acquisitions by 46% quarter-over-quarter, purchasing 1,706 homes in Q4 [29][33] - The October 2025 acquisition contract cohort achieved over 50% sold through or in resale contract, marking a 2x improvement in resale velocity compared to October 2024 [28] - The percentage of homes on the market for over 120 days decreased from 51% at the end of Q3 to 33% at the end of Q4, reflecting operational improvements [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expanded its geographic coverage significantly, making its product available to nearly every homeowner in the lower 48 states [20] - The operational changes under Opendoor 2.0 have resulted in a more tailored approach to pricing and selection, improving the overall market strategy [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve adjusted net income profitability by the end of 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis, focusing on improving unit economics and transaction velocity [2][39] - The strategy includes a shift from primarily building channels to transacting directly with buyers and sellers, reducing capital risk [3] - The company is investing in product development, particularly in AI and mortgage products, to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [47][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory, stating that the operational changes are yielding positive results and that they are on track to meet their goals [41] - The CEO emphasized that the company is not relying on favorable macro conditions but is actively improving its operations to achieve profitability [41] - Management acknowledged the importance of building trust with customers to become the default option for home selling [59] Other Important Information - The company has made significant advancements in AI integration, improving underwriting processes and operational efficiency [50][51] - The leadership team has undergone substantial changes, with new executives in key positions, enhancing the company's capabilities [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Where is Opendoor at currently compared to expectations and profitability? - Management stated they are on track and performing well against their four-step plan, with improvements in contribution margins since September [41] Question: What are the primary macro or pricing drivers preventing a faster ramp in acquisition contract volumes? - Management indicated that they are focused on product investment rather than immediate growth, which may affect acquisition volumes in the short term [44][46] Question: How should investors assess progress given the stock's decline? - Management advised that investors should focus on the underlying business improvements rather than the stock price, emphasizing the importance of building a product that people want [62][64] Question: If home prices drop another 5%-10% nationally, what happens to margins and inventory risk? - Management highlighted that Opendoor 2.0 is designed to move homes quickly rather than hold them, utilizing a broader toolkit for pricing and selection to mitigate risks [66]

Core Viewpoint - Zillow's stock is currently trading at depressed levels, with mixed signals regarding its future performance and valuation Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Zillow reported revenue of approximately $654 million, slightly exceeding Wall Street expectations, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 39 cents missed consensus by one cent [2] - Management has guided first-quarter revenue to a range of $700 million to $710 million, surpassing estimates of around $690 million, indicating ongoing top-line growth despite investor concerns about margins and profitability [2] Valuation Concerns - Legal costs and the emergence of new competitors are currently weighing on Zillow's stock valuation, creating near-term uncertainty [3] - There is potential for Zillow to benefit from normalized legal spending and a recovery in the housing market in the long term [3] Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 16.12, indicating that the stock is in oversold territory, which may suggest a potential reversal if buying interest increases [4] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below its signal line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment surrounding the stock [4] - The combination of an oversold RSI and bearish MACD indicates mixed momentum, suggesting that traders should remain cautious [4] Stock Performance - As of the latest publication, Zillow's shares were down 0.32% at $43.56, with a week-to-date decline of approximately 19.6% [5] - The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $43.22, with key resistance identified at $45.00 and key support at $43.00 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces challenges due to elevated legal costs and competitive pressures, leading to a cautious outlook despite potential upside from a housing market recovery [1][2][8] Margin Outlook And Earnings Power - Excluding legal expenses, the company could show significant improvement in incremental margins, with estimates of around 50% incremental margins in 2025 [2][3] - Including legal costs, incremental margins are expected to remain in the 30%-40% range for the third consecutive year [3] - By 2027, as legal costs decline, adjusted EBITDA margins could normalize to approximately 60%, reflecting a return to stronger profitability [4] Revenue Growth And Housing Market Catalyst - Revenue growth is projected to slow from 16% in 2026 to 11% in 2027, but stronger performance could enhance adjusted EBITDA due to fixed-cost leverage [5] - A recovery in the housing market is seen as a significant revenue catalyst, although it is expected to occur gradually rather than sharply [5] Private Listing Networks And Competitive Risks - Management believes private listing networks account for less than 1% of total listings and currently do not materially impact the business [6] - Despite the immaterial immediate revenue impact, structural uncertainties may affect the stock's valuation multiple [6] Quarterly Results And Guidance Shortfall - The fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was 2% below estimates due to weaker margins, and first-quarter guidance was 5% below projections primarily due to higher costs [7] - Full-year 2026 estimates were only reduced by 1%, indicating improved expectations for the second half of 2026 [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The company is experiencing improving operating leverage and potential housing recovery as upside drivers, but legal costs and competitive dynamics warrant a cautious approach [8] - At the time of publication, Zillow shares were down 18.11% at $44.80, marking a new 52-week low [8]

Core Insights - Zillow Group reported strong Q4 2025 results with total revenue increasing by 18% year over year, contributing to a full-year revenue growth of 16% [8][20] - The company achieved full-year profitability with a GAAP net income of $23 million and expanded EBITDA margins by nearly 200 basis points [9][20] - Strategic initiatives include expanding the enhanced market strategy, integrating AI into their ecosystem, and rolling out Zillow Pro to support agents [10][19] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached $654 million, up 18% year over year, with EBITDA of $149 million and a margin of 23%, which is 260 basis points higher than the previous year [20] - For sale revenue grew 11% year over year in Q4 to $475 million, with residential revenue up 8% and mortgages revenue increasing by 39% [20] - Rentals revenue grew 45% year over year in Q4, driven by a 63% increase in multifamily revenue, reaching $168 million [20] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its market strategy, which includes integrating technology to improve the real estate transaction process for consumers and professionals [19][20] - Zillow Home Loans has seen double-digit adoption rates, contributing to strong growth in purchase originations [19][20] - The rollout of Zillow Pro is expected to help agents manage their clients more effectively and improve lead conversion [19][30] Market Position and Growth - Zillow's rental segment showed significant growth, with a 45% increase in Q4 revenue, and the company estimates its share of rental listings increased to 63% [11][20] - The company is optimistic about its long-term strategy, aiming for mid-teens revenue growth in 2026 and continued EBITDA margin expansion [13][20] - Zillow's unique position in the market is supported by a trusted brand and a large, engaged consumer audience, with 80% of traffic coming directly to the platform [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $654 million, near the top end of the outlook range [24] - Full-year 2025 total revenue grew by 16%, consistent with the mid-teens growth outlook [30] - EBITDA for Q4 was $149 million, with a margin of 23%, up 260 basis points year-over-year [24] - Full-year 2025 EBITDA grew by 25% year-over-year, with a net income margin expansion of 990 basis points [30][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Sale revenue grew by 11% year-over-year in Q4 to $475 million, with residential revenue up 8% and mortgages revenue up 39% [25][27] - Rentals revenue in Q4 was $168 million, accelerating to 45% year-over-year growth, driven by a 63% increase in multifamily revenue [28][29] - For Sale revenue for the full year reached $1.9 billion, up 9% from 2024, while Rentals revenue totaled $630 million, up 39% from 2024 [10][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Zillow's share of rental listings increased to 63% in 2025, up from 54% in 2024 [21] - Average monthly unique visitors for Zillow Rentals reached 31 million in Q4 [20] - The housing market grew by 3% in 2025, while Zillow's revenue outperformed the market by 1,300 basis points [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating and digitizing the real estate transaction process to improve consumer experiences and professional productivity [6][11] - Zillow Pro, a new offering, aims to help agents manage their entire business and improve lead conversion [71] - The strategy emphasizes building a comprehensive marketplace for rentals and modernizing the rental transaction process [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and does not expect legal challenges to materially impact financial performance [22][66] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, with mid-teens revenue growth expected and a focus on enhancing the rental business [36][38] - Management highlighted improvements in affordability in the housing market, which could drive broader recovery over time [39] Other Important Information - The company reported $23 million of GAAP net income for the full year, achieving full-year profitability [10] - Share-based compensation expense decreased by 13% year-over-year, contributing to net income growth [32][42] - The company repurchased $670 million of shares throughout 2025, returning $1.1 billion to shareholders [34][35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on rental trends and opportunities? - Management indicated that the growth in rentals is due to a unique strategy focused on organizing various types of supply, including long-tail listings, which drives audience engagement and revenue growth [46][47] Question: How do you view the impact of recent industry consolidation? - Management does not expect any risk or impact from industry consolidation, as the majority of sellers and agents prefer broad exposure for their listings [55][56] Question: Is there any change in approach due to legal challenges? - Management confirmed that there are no expected changes to the business strategy due to ongoing legal challenges, maintaining confidence in their long-term approach [66][67] Question: What is the status of Zillow Pro and its impact on lead conversion? - Zillow Pro is currently in beta testing, with plans for nationwide expansion in the second half of the year, aimed at improving agent efficiency and conversion rates [71][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $654 million, near the top end of the outlook range [25] - Full-year 2025 total revenue grew by 16%, consistent with the mid-teens growth outlook [31] - EBITDA for Q4 was $149 million, with a margin of 23%, up 260 basis points year-over-year [25] - Full-year 2025 EBITDA grew by 25% year-over-year, with net income margin expanding by 990 basis points [31][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Sale revenue grew by 11% year-over-year in Q4 to $475 million, with residential revenue up 8% and mortgages revenue up 39% [26][10] - Rentals revenue in Q4 was $168 million, growing 45% year-over-year, driven by a 63% increase in multifamily revenue [27][10] - For Sale revenue for the full year reached $1.9 billion, up 9% from 2024, while Rentals revenue for the full year was $630 million, up 39% [10][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Zillow's share of rental listings increased to 63% in 2025, up from 54% in 2024 [18] - Zillow Rentals attracted 31 million average monthly unique visitors in Q4, indicating strong audience engagement [19] - The housing market grew by 3% in 2025, with Zillow outperforming the market by 1,300 basis points [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating and digitizing the real estate transaction process, enhancing customer experiences and improving productivity for real estate professionals [7][9] - Zillow Pro, a new offering, aims to help agents manage their entire business and improve lead conversion [72] - The strategy emphasizes building a comprehensive marketplace for rentals and modernizing the rental transaction process [18][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and does not expect legal challenges to materially impact financial performance [22][66] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in 2026, with mid-teens growth expected across the business [38] - Management noted improvements in housing affordability, which could lead to a broader market recovery over time [39] Other Important Information - The company reported $23 million of GAAP net income for the full year, achieving full-year profitability [10] - Share-based compensation expense decreased by 13% year-over-year, contributing to net income growth [33] - The company ended 2025 with $1.3 billion in cash and investments, and secured a $500 million revolving credit facility [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on rental trends and opportunities in multifamily? - Management indicated that the growth in rentals is due to their unique strategy of organizing various types of supply, which drives audience engagement and revenue growth [45][46] Question: How do you view the impact of recent industry consolidation on your business? - Management does not expect any risk or impact from industry consolidation, as the majority of sellers and agents prefer broad exposure [55][56] Question: Is there any change in approach to Zillow's business strategy due to legal challenges? - Management confirmed that there are no expected changes to the business strategy and remains confident in their positions [66] Question: What is the status of Zillow Pro and its impact on lead conversion? - Zillow Pro is currently in beta testing, with plans for nationwide expansion in the second half of the year, aimed at improving agent efficiency and conversion [71][72]

Core Insights - Zillow has launched a new tool called CreditClimb that allows renters to build credit through their rent payments, which can be reported to major credit bureaus for an annual fee of $20 [2][3] - The initiative aims to help renters improve their credit scores, with evidence suggesting that those using similar programs have seen significant increases in their scores [3] Company Developments - CreditClimb enables renters to report on-time payments to Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, and also allows them to add up to two years of previous rent payments to their credit report [2] - Zillow's senior vice president, Michael Sherman, emphasized that this tool can help renters qualify for better financing options and move towards homeownership [3] Industry Trends - According to TransUnion, the percentage of consumers whose rent payments are reported has increased from 11% in 2024 to 13% in 2025, indicating a growing trend in rent payment reporting [4] - However, the number of property managers participating in rent payment reporting has decreased from 48% to 44%, suggesting a potential shift towards self-reporting by consumers [5] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates that consumers are seeking ways to improve their credit scores without necessarily acquiring new credit cards, with many expressing a desire for higher credit limits to enhance financial flexibility [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Zillow and Redfin are facing lawsuits from state and federal officials for allegedly engaging in anti-competitive practices in the online rental advertising market, which could lead to higher costs for consumers and fewer rental options [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Allegations - Attorneys general from five states, along with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), have filed lawsuits claiming that Zillow and Redfin violated federal antitrust laws, specifically the Sherman Antitrust Act and the Clayton Act [3]. - The lawsuits allege that Zillow paid Redfin $100 million to shut down its online rental advertising business and transfer its clients to Zillow, which included the firing and rehiring of hundreds of employees [4][5]. Group 2: Market Implications - If the allegations are proven true, the collaboration between Zillow and Redfin could lead to increased advertising costs for rental properties, which may be passed on to consumers [6]. - The potential rise in advertising costs could limit options for consumers, particularly affecting smaller landlords who may struggle to afford advertising on major platforms like Zillow [6].

Core Insights - Zillow Group reported revenue of $676 million for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 16.4% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $668.99 million by 1.05% [1] - The company's EPS was $0.44, an increase from $0.35 in the same quarter last year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.45 by 2.22% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average Monthly Unique Users for Zillow's mobile applications and websites reached 250 million, exceeding the analyst estimate of 245.96 million [4] - Total visits to mobile applications and websites were 2.55 billion, surpassing the average estimate of 2.48 billion [4] - Residential revenue was reported at $435 million, above the analyst estimate of $429.27 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [4] - Revenue from other segments was $14 million, slightly below the estimated $14.71 million, with no year-over-year change [4] - Mortgage revenue was $53 million, exceeding the average estimate of $50.02 million, representing a significant year-over-year increase of 35.9% [4] - Rental revenue reached $174 million, in line with the average estimate of $174.66 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 41.5% [4] Stock Performance - Zillow's shares have returned -3.3% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 3.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]