DraftKings (DKNG) 2025 Conference September 04, 2025 12:10 PM ET Company ParticipantsJason Robins - Co-Founder, CEO & ChairmanConference Call ParticipantsShaun Kelley - Senior Research Analyst & MD - Gaming, Lodging & Leisure EquitiesShaun KelleyEveryone. Time to keep going, and this is obviously now our kinda lunch keynote, you know, time. So we have a little bit a little bit more time for lengthy conversations. My pleasure to welcome Jason Robbins, cofounder and chief executive officer of DraftKings. Than ...

Industry Overview - The college football season has started, and the NFL's regular season is set to begin next week, presenting a significant opportunity for sportsbooks to attract new customers and increase betting volumes [1] - Americans are projected to wager a record $30 billion during this NFL season, marking an 8.5% increase compared to the previous year, according to the American Gaming Association [1] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the sports betting industry include Flutter-owned FanDuel and DraftKings, which are experiencing heightened competition from BetMGM and Caesars [2] - New entrants are emerging in the market, such as online broker Robinhood, which has partnered with Kalshi to provide football prediction markets [2] Threats to the Industry - The primary challenge for these companies comes from offshore, unlicensed sportsbooks like Bovada, MyBookie, and BetOnline, which pose a significant threat to the regulated market [2]

Core Insights - The online sports betting market in the U.S. is facing increased competition from new entrants like Kalshi and Robinhood, which could impact the market share of established players like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment [2][4][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - DraftKings and Flutter's FanDuel have historically held a near duopoly in the online sports betting market [2] - Kalshi is set to expand its offerings for the 2025 NFL season to include over/under and spread betting, as well as player bets, which could disrupt the current market [2][3] - Robinhood is also entering the prediction market space, adding competition for the upcoming football season [4] Group 2: Impact of Player Props - Player props are becoming increasingly significant in NFL betting, potentially overshadowing traditional betting methods like point spreads [5][6] - The introduction of player prop betting by Kalshi could lead to substantial losses for DraftKings and FanDuel, as these bets are among the most popular [7] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC, allowing it to operate in states without legalized online sports betting, which could broaden its market reach [8][9] - Kalshi has reported over $2 billion in sports-related contracts traded in 2025, indicating strong consumer interest [9] Group 4: Stock Performance - DraftKings stock closed at $45.02, down 1.49%, but is up over 21% year-to-date in 2025 [10] - Flutter stock closed at $290.76, down 1.10%, with a year-to-date increase of over 12% [11]

Core Viewpoint - DraftKings' second-quarter earnings report showed strong financial performance, but a slight miss on earnings per share led to a negative market reaction, despite the company's long-term growth potential being robust [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - DraftKings reported record revenue of $1.51 billion for the second quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $301 million and net income of $158 million, translating to $0.38 per share, compared to $1.1 billion in revenue and $0.22 per share a year ago [3][6]. - The company maintained its full-year sales and EBITDA forecasts, indicating continued healthy growth [4]. Growth Potential - The company achieved a top-line growth of 37%, consistent with its historical performance and expected to continue [10]. - Profit margins on sports book revenue are widening, indicating increased efficiency as the company scales [12][14]. - The online sports betting market is still underdeveloped, with only half of the U.S. population having legal access to DraftKings' services, suggesting significant room for growth [17][20]. Balance Sheet Strength - DraftKings has a healthy balance sheet with nearly $1.3 billion in cash and manageable long-term liabilities, indicating no immediate financial risks [15][16]. Analyst Sentiment - The majority of analysts rate DraftKings stock as a strong buy, with a consensus target price of $55.08, representing a potential upside of over 27% from current levels [21][22]. Market Context - The online sports betting market is projected to grow from $35 billion last year to $58 billion by 2033, with DraftKings well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth [20].

Core Insights - DraftKings Inc. has received a direct mobile sports betting license from the Missouri Gaming Commission, allowing the company to operate independently in Missouri without needing to affiliate with a land-based casino or professional sports team [1][2] - The online sportsbook is expected to launch on December 1, 2025, pending final regulatory approvals, making Missouri the 29th U.S. state where DraftKings offers regulated sports betting [2] Company Operations - DraftKings aims to enhance the sports experience for fans in Missouri, which has a strong presence of professional teams and passionate fanbases [2] - The company operates regulated sports betting in 28 states, Washington D.C., and Ontario, Canada, and has a proven track record in regulated markets [4][7] Responsible Gaming Initiatives - DraftKings is committed to providing a responsible gaming environment, offering tools such as My Stat Sheet and My Budget Builder to help customers monitor their gaming activity and set limits [3][7] - The company supports communities through its S.E.R.V.E.S. program, which includes charitable donations, such as a contribution to the St. Louis Tornado Response Fund [5] Company Background - DraftKings was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Boston, offering a range of products including daily fantasy sports, regulated gaming, and digital media [7] - The company is an official partner of major sports leagues, including the NFL, NHL, and NBA, and operates under its DraftKings brand as well as the Golden Nugget Online Gaming brand [7]

Core Insights - Flutter reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted earnings of $2.95 per share compared to an estimated $2.08, and revenue of $4.19 billion against a consensus of $4.13 billion [1] - The U.S. revenue for the quarter reached $1.79 billion, slightly above expectations, and adjusted EBITDA was nearly $100 million higher than analyst consensus [2] - Flutter raised its full-year guidance, attributing this to favorable U.S. sports results and tax changes [2] Performance Highlights - FanDuel, owned by Flutter, achieved a record gross revenue margin of 16.3% in June, benefiting from positive sports outcomes [2] - The company’s strong performance in the U.S. market is a key driver of its overall revenue growth [2] Regulatory Concerns - CEO Peter Jackson expressed concerns about state taxes potentially driving gamblers to offshore illegal sportsbooks, citing Illinois as a specific example where tax changes could negatively impact casual users [3]

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are currently expensive, but several smaller companies still present great value for new investors, particularly in the context of the S&P 500's strong performance driven by growth stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology specializes in chips for data centers, collaborating with major companies like Amazon and Microsoft [4][5]. - The company designs networking chips and custom AI accelerators, with significant growth potential in AI chip markets [6][7]. - Marvell is pursuing up to $75 billion in potential revenue from over 10 customers for its custom AI accelerators, with shares trading at a forward P/E of less than 27, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7]. Group 2: DraftKings - DraftKings is a leading online sportsbook in the U.S., leveraging its brand strength since the legalization of sports betting in 2018 [8][9]. - The company utilizes extensive customer data to enhance its betting systems and has made strategic acquisitions to improve its product offerings [10]. - Despite challenges from emerging prediction markets and new tax laws affecting bettors, DraftKings shares are considered attractive, trading at an enterprise value to forward EBITDA of around 27, with expected earnings growth from $181 million to $850 million [11][13]. Group 3: Pinterest - Pinterest operates as a discovery engine in social media, primarily attracting a female user base, which is valuable for advertisers [14]. - The platform has seen a 10% year-over-year increase in monthly active users and a 5% rise in average revenue per user, indicating strong growth [16]. - With a share price around $38 and a forward P/E of just 21, Pinterest is viewed as a great value for growth investors, benefiting from strong margin expansion and consistent revenue growth [18].

Core Insights - DraftKings Inc. is shifting from a high-growth model to a disciplined, cash-generating business, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for the company [1] - The company has reaffirmed its free cash flow target of $750 million, indicating improvements in core business fundamentals such as margin expansion and promotional efficiency [1][5] - Despite short-term volatility from sports outcomes, DraftKings is leveraging strong operational capabilities to pursue long-term cash generation [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, DraftKings reported $103 million in adjusted EBITDA, a significant increase from $22.4 million in the same period last year, despite a $170 million revenue hit from unfavorable sports outcomes [2] - Management anticipates a substantial increase in EBITDA for Q2, projecting it to exceed $200 million, driven by sportsbook handle [2] - The structural sportsbook hold is expected to rise from 10.4% in Q1, contributing to improved net revenue margins in the range of 7-7.5% [3] Margin and Revenue Expectations - DraftKings expects to generate an additional $50 million in revenues and $37 million in EBITDA in 2025 through optimized promotional spending and improved margins [3] - The company forecasts an adjusted gross margin of 46% in 2025, reflecting an increase of over 300 basis points year-over-year [3] Regulatory Environment - The operating environment remains challenging due to regulatory issues, including Maryland's tax hike on sports betting and Jackpocket's exit from digital lottery operations, which together are expected to impact revenues by $30 million and EBITDA by $26 million [4] Capital Discipline - DraftKings is maintaining strong capital discipline, with an expected $100 million gap between adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, supported by low capital expenditures and controlled working capital [5] - The company has $1.1 billion in cash on its balance sheet, positioning it well to meet its 2025 free cash flow target [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - DraftKings shares have increased by 24% over the past three months, compared to the industry's growth of 40.5% [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales multiple of 5.31X, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.66X [7] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DraftKings' 2025 earnings per share has been revised upward from $1.40 to $1.46, indicating strong analyst confidence in the stock's near-term prospects [8] - Projections suggest a 239.1% rise in earnings for DraftKings in 2025, while competitors like Accel Entertainment and Boyd Gaming are expected to see declines [10]

Group 1 - PENN Entertainment is known for its strategic move into the online sports betting industry through the purchase and subsequent sale of Barstool Sports, which significantly boosted its stock price to over $120 per share [1] - The company has a history of engaging in various investment activities, including trading public equities and analyzing different sectors such as healthcare startups and telehealth [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to PENN Entertainment or the online sports betting industry [2][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record quarterly revenue of €311 million, representing a 17% year-over-year increase [7][22] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% year-over-year to €59 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by 20 basis points to 19% [25][28] - Free cash flow generated during the quarter was €32 million, compared to breakeven cash flow in the same period last year, with a free cash flow conversion rate of 54% [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Technology and solutions revenue reached €250 million, growing 14% year-over-year, driven by a 13% increase in betting and gaming content [23] - Sports content, technology, and services revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to €61 million, led by a 36% growth in marketing and media services [24] - Managed betting services grew by 16% year-over-year, supported by increased turnover and higher trading margins [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue grew by 31% and now represents 28% of total company revenues, reflecting strong growth in the domestic market [9][24] - Revenue from the rest of the world grew by 12% year-over-year [24] - The global sports betting market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% through 2027, with established markets like Europe continuing to perform well [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth strategy is driven by four key pillars: global market expansion, increasing take rates, unlocking adjacent market opportunities, and driving innovation through technology and AI [7][16] - The company is focused on expanding its product offerings and enhancing client relationships, with only 40% of clients currently using four or more products, indicating significant growth potential [10][22] - The pending acquisition of IMG Arena's sports rights portfolio is expected to enhance growth strategy and strengthen premium content offerings [16][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather uncertainties and highlighted the resilience of the global online sports betting market [19][18] - The company anticipates continued strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with guidance for at least €1.273 billion in revenue and €281 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [31][32] - Management noted that the acquisition of IMG Arena is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted EBITDA and cash margins [17][30] Other Important Information - The company completed a secondary offering, purchasing $65 million worth of shares under its existing $200 million share repurchase program, bringing total repurchases to $86 million [17][29] - The company has approximately $2 billion in contractual revenue commitments locked in over the next two years, providing strong visibility for future growth [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the outperformance in U.S. growth? - Management attributed the 31% growth in the U.S. to executing their strategy effectively, leveraging their extensive portfolio in major sports leagues [36][37] Question: Is there any softness in the industry or player demographics? - Management indicated that the U.S. market is still adapting, and while some sportsbooks are quicker to adopt in-game betting, the overall trend is positive [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for the IMG acquisition? - Management confirmed that expectations for EBITDA accretion remain unchanged, with the deal expected to close by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4 [45][46] Question: What is the roadmap for computer vision data capture? - Management stated that they aim to cover about 90% of events with computer vision, which enhances product offerings and monetization opportunities [62][64] Question: What are the key variables that could push revenue growth above 15% CAGR? - Management highlighted market expansion, new product opportunities, and growth in adjacent markets as potential drivers for exceeding the 15% CAGR target [92][95]