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中国:10 月工业利润与营收双降;11 月 PMI 前瞻-China_ Both industrial profits and revenue fell in October; November PMI preview
2025-12-01 00:49
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese industrial sector**, highlighting significant declines in both industrial profits and revenue for October 2023 compared to previous months [1][2][6]. Core Findings 1. **Industrial Profits Decline**: - Year-over-year, China's industrial profits fell by **8.9%** in October, a stark contrast to a **23.0%** increase in September. Sequentially, profits decreased by **8.3%** non-annualized after seasonal adjustment, following a **9.7%** decline in September [1][2][6]. 2. **Downstream vs. Upstream Performance**: - Downstream industries experienced a profit decline of **5.6%** year-over-year in October, compared to a **20.5%** increase in September. Upstream industries saw a more significant drop of **14.9%** year-over-year, down from a **35.8%** increase in September. The equipment manufacturing sector contributed positively, adding **2.8 percentage points** to the **1.9%** year-over-year growth of industrial profits in the first ten months of the year [6]. 3. **Industrial Revenue Decline**: - Industrial revenue also fell by **4.0%** year-over-year in October, compared to a **3.3%** increase in September. Sequentially, revenue decreased by **4.8%** non-annualized in October, contrasting with a **0.8%** increase in September. Overall profit margins declined on a 12-month average basis, with both upstream and downstream profit margins deteriorating [1][2][6]. 4. **PMI Forecasts for November**: - The NBS manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly to **49.3** in November from **49.0** in October. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI is forecasted to remain flat at **50.6**. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI is anticipated to decrease to **50.0** from **50.1** in October, reflecting subdued construction activity due to slower fiscal spending [6][7]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a **weakening in port activity** in coastal regions compared to the previous month, although there is a noted positive seasonal bias in the RatingDog manufacturing PMI for November. The services PMI is expected to remain largely unchanged, impacted by ongoing challenges in the property sector [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting both the challenges and the anticipated trends moving forward.