Core Thesis - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is facing skepticism regarding its rare-earth ambitions, particularly in scandium oxide, which is projected to generate over US$500 million in EBITDA by 2028, despite the current coal business providing steady cash flow [2][4] Financial Projections - The company's model anticipates scandium oxide sales at US$3,750/kg with annual production of 179 tons, leading to projected revenues of US$611 million, which are deemed unrealistic given the global market conditions [3] - Current market prices for scandium are around US$600–700/kg, with total annual production under 40 tons, suggesting that Ramaco's revenue projections are significantly inflated [3] Operational Status - The rare-earth project is still in the pilot stage, lacking current output or revenue diversification beyond coal, and there are no binding customer contracts or significant government funding to support the ambitious projections [2][3] - The full-scale facility for the mine is years away, and any deviations in price or yield could drastically reduce projected returns [4] Valuation Insights - Ramaco's coal operations generated Q3 2025 revenue of US$121 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$8.4 million, with a standalone coal valuation estimated at US$12–15 per share, plus an additional US$8–10 for the rare-earth venture [4] - The fair value of the stock is suggested to be between US$20–25 per share, contrasting with current market prices that may overstate speculative upside [4] Market Performance - The stock price of Ramaco Resources has appreciated approximately 4% since previous bullish coverage, indicating some realization of the growth trajectory and rare-earth optionality, but valuation risks remain due to unrealistic assumptions about scandium [5]

Group 1 - The aspiring miner has announced a deal with the government [1] - The company plans to develop a terminal for mineral storage [1] - The terminal will be available for use by other miners as well [1]

Core Insights - The White Mesa Mill in Utah is characterized by a significant presence of monazite ore, indicating a strong focus on rare earth elements and their extraction processes [1] Industry Overview - The mill's operations suggest a growing ambition within the rare earth elements sector, which is critical for various high-tech applications and green technologies [1] Company Activities - The storage of massive sacks of monazite ore at the mill highlights the scale of operations and the strategic importance of this resource in the current market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Fuels' stock is experiencing a significant increase due to developments in its rare-earth operations rather than its uranium business [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of 12:04 p.m. ET, shares of Energy Fuels are up 8.3%, having previously climbed as much as 11.6% [2]. Group 2: Rare-Earth Production - Energy Fuels has achieved the production of its first kilogram of dysprosium oxide at its White Mesa Mill in Utah, claiming to be the first U.S. company to produce high-purity dysprosium oxide and disclose production volumes and purities [4]. - The company is also exploring the production of terbium oxide and plans to develop these elements at a commercial scale, with production expected to start as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026 [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The domestic production of rare-earth elements is a priority for the U.S. government, highlighted by a public-private partnership between the Department of Defense and MP Materials [6]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The successful production of rare-earth elements strengthens the bullish case for Energy Fuels, although the company remains unprofitable and the development of the rare-earth elements separation facility involves significant capital expenditure [7].