Industry Overview - The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by high costs and declining traffic, but is experiencing sales growth due to menu price hikes and average check growth [1][3] - Industry participants are leveraging partnerships with delivery channels and digital platforms to enhance sales [1] Sales Performance - Restaurant sales showed strong momentum, with U.S. Census Bureau data indicating $98.7 billion in seasonally adjusted sales in June, a 0.6% increase from May's revised total of $98.2 billion [4] Digital Innovation - The focus on digital innovation and partnerships with delivery services like DoorDash and Grubhub is driving incremental sales for restaurant operators [5] Off-Premise Sales - The increase in off-premise sales, including delivery and takeout, is acting as a key catalyst for growth, with many operators testing ghost kitchens and connected curbside services [6] Industry Ranking - The Zacks Restaurant industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 188, placing it in the bottom 23% of over 244 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [7][8] Stock Performance - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 Composite, growing only 5.7% compared to the S&P 500's 20.3% and the sector's 25.7% [9] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 24.69X, higher than the S&P 500's 22.69X but below the sector's 25.05X [12] Company Highlights - **BJ's Restaurants**: Achieved 2.9% year-over-year comparable sales growth in Q2 2025, driven by a 3.3% increase in traffic, with anticipated sales and earnings growth of 3.2% and 38.8% respectively for 2025 [14][15] - **The Cheesecake Factory**: Benefiting from higher consumer demand and operational efficiency, with expected sales and earnings growth of 5.1% and 9.3% respectively for 2025 [18][19] - **Cracker Barrel**: Focused on menu innovation and digital initiatives, with anticipated sales growth of 0.1% but a decline in earnings of 9.1% for 2025 [22][23]

Core Insights - The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment but is experiencing sales growth due to menu price hikes and expansion efforts [1][3] - Key players like CAVA Group, Wingstop, and BJ's Restaurants are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [1] Industry Overview - The industry includes various types of restaurants, from casual to fine dining, and also encompasses quick-service and specialty coffee operations [2] - Operators are increasingly focusing on digital innovation and partnerships with delivery platforms to enhance sales [5] Current Trends - The industry is grappling with persistent inflation and reduced consumer purchasing power, leading to declining traffic [3] - Despite these challenges, restaurant sales reached $99.1 billion in April, showing resilience as consumers continue to dine out [4] - Off-premise sales, including delivery and takeout, are becoming a significant growth driver [6] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Restaurant industry has underperformed the S&P 500, growing 8% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 11.7% increase [9] - The industry's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 26.55X, higher than the S&P 500's 21.89X and the sector's 23.95X [12] Company Highlights - **CAVA Group**: Expected to open 64-68 new restaurants in fiscal 2025, with anticipated same-restaurant sales growth of 6-8% and a profit margin of 24.8%-25.2% [14] - **Wingstop**: Leveraging AI technology for operational improvements, with projected sales and earnings growth of 16.6% and 6.3% respectively in 2025 [18] - **BJ's Restaurants**: Benefiting from increased guest traffic and sales-driving initiatives, with expected sales and earnings growth of 3.2% and 23.8% respectively in 2025 [22]

Shares of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) have declined 18.8% over the past month compared with the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry’s fall of 8.1%. The stock has underperformed the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector’s and the S&P 500’s decline of 8.3% and 9.7%, respectively.Investor sentiment surrounding Starbucks has been weighed down by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns over tariff impacts, recession risks and potential international backlash against U.S. brands.SBUX's One-Month Price Performance ...

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) has shown a stock price increase of 10.7% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry's growth of 0.1% and the declines in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and S&P 500, which fell by 4.9% and 4.8% respectively [1] Group 1: Factors Favoring Starbucks Stock - The company is undergoing a transformative period with a strategic shift focused on revitalizing its brand and operations, particularly through the "Back to Starbucks" initiative, which emphasizes a premium coffee experience over discount-driven promotions [5][6] - Starbucks has seen a 40% decline in discounted transactions year over year due to its reduced reliance on discount promotions [6] - The company has eliminated extra charges for non-dairy milk and customizations, enhancing pricing transparency and customer engagement through its "Coffee Forward" marketing campaign [7][8] - Technological investments, including a new in-store prioritization algorithm and enhancements to the mobile app, aim to optimize operational efficiency and improve customer experience [9] - Starbucks is actively pursuing store expansion and renovations, particularly in China, to enhance growth and margin opportunities [10] Group 2: Challenges Facing Starbucks Stock - Comparable store sales have declined, with a global drop of 4% in the fiscal first quarter, attributed to reduced customer traffic and a decline in transactions [11] - The operating margin contracted by 390 basis points year over year to 11.9%, primarily due to higher labor costs and the removal of extra charges for non-dairy milk [13] - Management has suspended full-year guidance, creating uncertainty regarding future earnings and growth projections [14] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for fiscal 2025 have been revised downward from $3.10 to $2.99, reflecting weakening analyst confidence [15][16] - The stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend and potential short-term volatility [17][18] Group 3: Valuation Insights - SBUX is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 2.90X, which is below the industry average of 4.12X, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity [19]