Key Takeaways from the Economic Survey F2025-26 Industry Overview - **Country**: India - **Focus**: Economic growth, fiscal policy, inflation, external stability, and sectoral performance Core Insights 1. **Growth Expectations**: - Real GDP growth is projected at **7.4% YoY for F2026** and between **6.8% and 7.2% YoY for F2027**. Domestic demand is expected to support this growth despite global uncertainties [9][10] - The cumulative impact of recent policy reforms has lifted the economy's medium-term growth potential closer to **7%** [11] 2. **Inflation Management**: - Headline CPI has softened due to a downturn in food prices, with core inflation hovering around **4%**. The survey anticipates inflation to remain anchored within manageable ranges, supported by strong agricultural output and stable global commodity prices [9][18] 3. **External Stability**: - India maintains robust external macro stability, with strong services exports and remittances supporting the current account. The capital account has attracted substantial gross FDI, indicating resilience amid global volatility [19][20][22] 4. **Fiscal Policy**: - The fiscal deficit is expected to be **4.2% of GDP** for F2027, with a commitment to a transparent medium-term debt glide path of **50% of GDP ±1ppt by F2031**. The government emphasizes a calibrated fiscal strategy that combines consolidation with sustained public investment [2][23] Sectoral Insights 1. **Agriculture**: - Growth in agriculture is critical for food security and livelihoods. Allied activities like horticulture and dairy are key contributors. Policy measures to improve infrastructure and productivity are essential [11] 2. **Industry**: - Transition to higher-value manufacturing is gaining traction, supported by ongoing capital expenditure and reforms like the PLI scheme. However, challenges such as high logistical costs and regulatory complexity persist [12][13] 3. **Infrastructure**: - Significant investments in infrastructure are crucial for growth and productivity. Initiatives like PM GatiShakti and the National Logistics Policy aim to enhance logistical coordination and reduce transaction costs [14] 4. **Services**: - The services sector is a major driver of economic growth and employment, with a focus on high-value, technology-driven segments. Tailored reforms are necessary to maintain competitiveness [15] Additional Considerations - **Medium-term Growth Path**: - Achieving inclusive growth is linked to augmenting productive capacity and institutional transformation, aligning with the long-term vision of "Viksit Bharat" by 2047 [27][28] - **State Finances**: - State governments are encouraged to improve revenue mobilization and spending composition, with a focus on conditional cash transfers linked to verifiable actions to avoid widening deficits [24][25][26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Economic Survey F2025-26, highlighting India's growth trajectory, fiscal strategies, and sectoral developments while addressing potential risks and challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The US service sector is experiencing its weakest growth since April, with the S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index dropping to 52.5 in December from 54.1 in November, indicating a slowdown in expansion [1]. Group 1: Growth and Demand - The easing of growth suggests that the post-pandemic resilience of the US economy may be diminishing, with business activity rising for the 35th consecutive month but at a noticeably slower pace [2]. - New business inflows have slowed to their weakest rate in approximately 20 months, attributed to tighter client budgets and increased caution among customers [3]. - The service sector saw the smallest rise in new business in 20 months, alongside the first decline in manufacturing orders in a year, indicating a broad-based weakening in demand growth [4]. Group 2: Employment and Cost Pressures - Employment growth in the service sector stalled in December, marking the first time since February that firms cutting jobs outnumbered those adding them, linked to cost concerns and budget constraints [6]. - Despite the hiring stall, backlogs of work increased modestly for the tenth consecutive month, while operating costs rose at the fastest pace since last May [7]. Group 3: Inflation and Pricing - Input price inflation reached a seven-month high, driven by tariffs, higher supplier charges, and rising labor-related expenses, leading companies to increase selling prices at a quicker rate [8]. Group 4: Business Confidence - Business confidence for the upcoming year remains positive but has softened further in December, staying below its long-term average due to uncertainty over government policy, tariffs, and affordability [9]. - Future output expectations entering 2026 are significantly lower than at the start of 2025, raising concerns that the slowdown in December and job market issues could extend into the new year [10].

Industry Focus - OpenTable CEO Debby Soo discusses serving the service industry [1] Company Overview - The article provides insights into OpenTable's operations and strategies [1]

Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with high interest rates impacting households and businesses[11] - Overall consumer confidence has declined due to high consumer prices, with spending slowing down across most regions except Brazil[13][22] - The OECD global consumer confidence index shows a downward trend, indicating reduced consumer sentiment[20] Manufacturing and Services Sector - Manufacturing experienced its first contraction in 2024, while the services sector continues to show stable growth[14] - Manufacturing growth in China and the US has stagnated, with the Eurozone still in contraction[34] - The services sector remains a bright spot in the global economy, driven by industrial production growth and capital market improvements[45] Trade and Supply Chain - Global trade volume increased by 0.7% in June, primarily driven by growth in developed economies[50] - The global supply chain market is normalizing, with the pressure index reaching historical averages in July[51] - Total port trade in June 2024 decreased compared to June 2023, mainly due to reduced activity in Asian economies[69] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rates in the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil's unemployment rate showed a declining trend[73] - Inflation in developed economies is easing, with the Eurozone facing deflationary pressures[77] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia experiencing an acceleration[84] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[89] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $2,439 per ounce in August[93] - Stock markets faced challenges in August, with most exchanges reporting losses[123]