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花旗:Xiaomi_1810HK_2Q25_Preview_A_Strong_Quarter_but_Largely_In-line-Xiaomi_1810HK
花旗· 2025-08-11 01:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Xiaomi shares, with a target price of HK$69, down from HK$73, reflecting a long-term growth thesis intact [5][11][28]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to report strong 2Q25 results, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 10.4 billion, representing a 68% year-over-year increase, despite a slight decline from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The company anticipates total revenue of RMB 114 billion for 2Q25, a 47% year-over-year increase, driven by robust IoT and EV sales [3][9]. - The smartphone segment is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with revenue of RMB 46.3 billion, while IoT revenue is projected to grow by 35% year-over-year to RMB 36 billion [3][8]. - The report highlights upcoming catalysts, including 3Q25 guidance, Phase 2 EV capacity ramp, and new product launches, which could positively impact the stock [11][28]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 483.5 billion, with adjusted net income expected to reach RMB 44.5 billion, reflecting a 63.3% growth [4][11]. - The gross margin for the overall business is projected to be 22.6% in 2025, with smartphone gross margin narrowing to 11.9% due to competitive pressures [4][8]. - EV sales are expected to contribute approximately RMB 20.7 billion in revenue for 2Q25, with gross margin improving to 24% [9][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's market share in the global smartphone market is reported at 14.5%, with a slight increase in the Chinese market share to 15.1% [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its IoT and EV segments, with a strong emphasis on product mix and pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness [2][9][28]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for Xiaomi's smartphone business, driven by subsidy-driven demand in China and normalized component costs [28][29].