Xiaomi (1810 HK) Equity Research Summary Industry Overview - **Industry**: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - **Company**: Xiaomi Corporation Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Non-IFRS Net Profit**: RMB 11.3 billion, up 81% year-on-year, exceeding consensus by 13% due to higher than expected EV average selling price (ASP) which increased by 9% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter [3][29] - **EV Business**: Achieved its first quarterly operating profit of RMB 0.7 billion in 3Q25, with vehicle deliveries increasing by 34% quarter-on-quarter [3][11] - **Total Revenue**: RMB 113.1 billion in 3Q25, a 22.3% increase year-on-year [29] Segment Performance Smartphone Segment - **Revenue**: RMB 45.97 billion, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year [29] - **ASP Decline**: From RMB 1,073 in 2Q25 to RMB 1,063 in 3Q25, with gross margin dropping from 11.5% to 11.1% [3][29] - **Profitability Pressure**: Expected due to rising memory costs; prioritizing ASP improvement over shipment growth [4][11] IoT and Lifestyle Products - **Revenue Growth**: Slowed to 5.7% year-on-year, impacted by reduced shipments of smart large home appliances due to subsidy cuts and increased competition [3][4] - **Gross Margin Recovery**: Increased by 1.4 percentage points sequentially [3] EV Segment - **Revenue**: RMB 29.01 billion, a significant increase of 199.2% year-on-year [29] - **Delivery Goal**: On track to meet 2025 vehicle delivery target of 350,000 units, with monthly deliveries expected to rise from approximately 30,000 in July to over 40,000 by October 2025 [4][11] Strategic Insights - **Premiumisation Strategy**: Aimed at alleviating cost pressures in the smartphone segment [4][11] - **Product Mix Optimization**: To mitigate the impact of subsidy reductions in the IoT segment [4] Valuation and Estimates - **Target Price**: Decreased to HKD 62.80 from HKD 65.40, implying a 54% upside from the current share price of HKD 40.78 [5][11] - **Net Profit Estimates**: Lowered by 3%, 6%, and 3% for 2025-2027, respectively, due to reduced revenue estimates [5][30] - **Valuation Method**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach; applying a 25x target PE for legacy businesses and DCF for the EV business [5][32] Risks and Challenges - **Component Shortages**: Potential revenue caps due to shortages in key semiconductor components [40] - **Competition**: Increased competition in IoT and internet services from established players like Huawei and Lenovo [40] - **FX Volatility**: Risks associated with foreign exchange fluctuations as Xiaomi expands in overseas markets [40] Conclusion - Xiaomi is positioned for growth in its EV segment while facing challenges in its smartphone and IoT businesses. The company’s strategic focus on premiumisation and product mix optimization is crucial for navigating current market pressures. The revised target price reflects a cautious outlook amid anticipated cost pressures and competitive dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Xiaomi shares, with a target price of HK$69, down from HK$73, reflecting a long-term growth thesis intact [5][11][28]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to report strong 2Q25 results, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 10.4 billion, representing a 68% year-over-year increase, despite a slight decline from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The company anticipates total revenue of RMB 114 billion for 2Q25, a 47% year-over-year increase, driven by robust IoT and EV sales [3][9]. - The smartphone segment is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with revenue of RMB 46.3 billion, while IoT revenue is projected to grow by 35% year-over-year to RMB 36 billion [3][8]. - The report highlights upcoming catalysts, including 3Q25 guidance, Phase 2 EV capacity ramp, and new product launches, which could positively impact the stock [11][28]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 483.5 billion, with adjusted net income expected to reach RMB 44.5 billion, reflecting a 63.3% growth [4][11]. - The gross margin for the overall business is projected to be 22.6% in 2025, with smartphone gross margin narrowing to 11.9% due to competitive pressures [4][8]. - EV sales are expected to contribute approximately RMB 20.7 billion in revenue for 2Q25, with gross margin improving to 24% [9][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's market share in the global smartphone market is reported at 14.5%, with a slight increase in the Chinese market share to 15.1% [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its IoT and EV segments, with a strong emphasis on product mix and pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness [2][9][28]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for Xiaomi's smartphone business, driven by subsidy-driven demand in China and normalized component costs [28][29].