Previous forecasts predicted that bonuses would shrink in 2025; now they're set to rise, and probably soar for stock traders amid a volatile market. https://t.co/2Ji82um2Ox ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the U.S. markets, particularly focusing on the NASDAQ and its volatility, which has been compared to the Hang Seng Index (HSI) in Hong Kong [3][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - The recent market behavior has been characterized by extreme volatility, with the NASDAQ experiencing a 700-point swing within 45-60 minutes, reminiscent of the market conditions in 2022 [2][3]. - There is a significant level of uncertainty in the market, primarily driven by potential policy decisions from the U.S. Administration, particularly under President Trump, which could lead to drastic market movements [3][4][5]. - Earnings estimates are currently deemed secondary to the ability to predict policy decisions, as tariffs are creating a "moving target" for fair stock valuations [5]. - The Hang Seng Index is experiencing a "melt-up" phase, with less policy uncertainty compared to the U.S. markets, leading to a consistent buying trend [6]. Additional Important Content - The current market structure in the U.S. is described as "mean-reverting" until there is a resolution regarding tariffs, indicating that price movements may oscillate around a mean value rather than following a clear trend [11]. - The approach to investing in this volatile environment should be tailored to individual risk tolerance, investment goals, and time horizon, suggesting that aggressive investors may consider buying the dip, while those closer to retirement may need to be more cautious [9][12].

今天行情好啊，港股势如破竹，a股稳中有升，最重要的是周五，我喜欢周五大涨，涨一天算三天。 恒生科技指数今天爆升6.5%，双倍反包昨天的阴线，中概股彻底支棱起来了。还记得我上周说过中概股的合理估值是向上30%嘛，当时正好很多人套了好 几年的恒科etf刚解套，犹豫要不要走，我画的这个饼让一些老读者咬牙决定留下来再看看。 我觉得比较合理的状态就是一半信，一半怀疑，半信半疑的做交易，觉得情绪过热，股票拿着烫手了，可以少少卖一些，但大的交易节奏还是根据 中期目标来执行。这种两头不靠的交易风格容易钝化曲线，避免自己陷入巨大困境，反之那些在中国股市做的很决绝的人，炒股生涯肯定惊涛骇 浪，因为A股虽然回报率最低，但是波动率最高，它赚钱效应虽然很差，但却是最刺激的。 能够长期在这样的股市里沉淀下来，并研究出一套适合自己的交易方法论的股民，最差也算半个赌徒。 …… 昨天写到了港澳银行开卡的新闻，一些新读者还是对离岸卡概念一团浆糊。这也不怪他们，大部分中国人这辈子都没怎么单独出过国，自然也就接触不到 外汇防火墙。 其实我自己当时也在思想斗争，去年10月8日已经翻红有盈利了，就是因为不甘心没走，又滚犊子滚回粪坑了。无论港股还是a股， ...