We are delighted to announce The Economist Insider.From next month subscribers will get access to a weekly show from @zannymb, our editor-in-chief, plus shows exploring geopolitics, defence, economics and tech. They can also submit questions https://t.co/OrmiRQlTMi ...

“Rare earths are in a sense being used as a kind of bargaining chip,” Andrea Sella of @ucl reflects on when chemistry met geopolitics. Listen to “Babbage” https://t.co/70mjAtiSnJ ...

Industry Trends - The rise of AI is fueling heightened uncertainty [1] - Fragmented geopolitics is fueling heightened uncertainty [1] - A risk of divergence is fueling heightened uncertainty [1]

Flight of the big important week. And then on the other side of the world where three of the most powerful leaders in the world really showed an affection and agreed on an agenda going forward. And frankly, for me, seeing Modi as one of those three leaders comes as a surprise, given where we were just three months ago with India, where we were on the verge of concluding one of the earliest trade agreements with Delhi.And so, boy, things have changed quickly. I'm not saying that Modi is all in with Xi Jinpin ...

Policy & Economy - Discussed bitcoin, interest rates, geopolitics, power production, immigration, home affordability, and wealth inequality with Congressman Jim Himes [1]

Market Overview & Strategy - Citi raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600, but this implies limited further upside for now [1] - The S&P 500 is moving along two parallel paths: mega-cap tech growth stocks and a more balanced part of the index [2] - Roughly half of the S&P 500's market capitalization is attached to infrastructure spending, while the other half is more susceptible to traditional economic metrics, monetary policy, and geopolitics [3][4] - Consensus estimates around 9% earnings growth for the S&P 500 this year, with half of that coming from the Mag Seven [4] Earnings Growth & Broadening - Approximately a quarter of S&P 500 constituents are projected to have negative year-over-year earnings growth this year [6] - Earnings growth acceleration is expected next year, driven by companies with negative earnings growth this year switching to positive growth [6] - A structural bull setup requires a broadening dynamic to persist into next year, beyond the mega-cap growth [11] Key Risks & Influences - The market expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the back half of the year [14] - The market is more focused on the Federal Reserve's actions, specifically Jay Powell's speech, than the Russia-Ukraine situation [13] - Geopolitical risks, such as the resolution of policy-related issues and the Iran situation, can provide a risk-on dynamic to markets [14]

Geopolitical Strategy & Trade Negotiations - The US is employing a non-linear, multi-lever economic strategy in geopolitics, leveraging military operations, diplomatic channels, financial sanctions, and oil markets to bring parties to the table and secure agreements [5][9][11] - The US is using military operations, such as those in Ukraine, as levers in negotiations, challenging notions of Russian dominance and pushing back against perceived leverage [7][8][9] - The US is leveraging financial sanctions, including freezing assets and potentially seizing Russian assets for Ukrainian benefit, as a significant tool in trade negotiations [13][14] - The US is considering offering "carrots" like lifting sanctions on Russian banks and cooperating on Arctic routes to incentivize cooperation alongside pressure tactics [15][16] - Arctic shipping routes are emerging as a critical geopolitical factor, with China and Russia collaborating to create a challenger to existing routes, impacting shipping insurance premiums and logistics costs [18][19] Digital Assets & Currency Competition - The rise of BRICS economies, de-dollarization efforts, and CBDC experiments are driving a rejig of the trade and dollar system, raising concerns within the US [23] - The US legalization of crypto has led to a significant liquidity event, with potential for further influx from other regions, particularly through 401ks [23] - Sovereign Bitcoin reserves are emerging, with the US and China becoming major holders, signaling a shift in government attitudes towards crypto as a reserve asset [24][25] - China is seriously considering launching a yuan-backed stablecoin from Hong Kong, indicating growing competition in the stablecoin space [27] - Different theaters are emerging around digital assets, including dollar-backed ecosystems, potentially neutral areas like Bitcoin, and alternative stablecoins/CBDCs from BRICS regions [28][29] Financial Market Dynamics - Liquidity dried up in bond markets after tariff announcements, but this has largely been resolved, though global bond markets and interest rates are experiencing significant shifts [32]

Geopolitical Analysis - Presidential whim replaces coherent international relations theory, increasing unpredictability and danger in geopolitics [1] - Donald Trump is neither a globalist, isolationist, nor believer in regional spheres of influence [1]

Geopolitics & International Relations - The analysis suggests Donald Trump holds a 19th-century perspective on geopolitics [1] - The report implies that romanticizing this historical period is unwarranted [1]

Stablecoin Market & Geopolitics - A7A5, the first ruble-pegged stablecoin, moved $93 billion in just 4 months [1] - Stablecoins are now a tool in geopolitics [1] - A7A5 and Grinex (a new Kyrgyz exchange) stepped in after the US closed Garantex, Russia's CEX [1] A7A5 Stablecoin Details - Launched in Kyrgyzstan, outside Western reach [2] - Backed by ruble deposits in Promsvyazbank (sanctioned) [2] - Runs on Tron & Ethereum [2] - Used as a bridge to USDT & cash out abroad, bypassing SWIFT & sanctions [2] Transaction Analysis - Most flows are weekday, done during office hour, reportedly trade payments or state linked actors [1] - It's not retail driven [1]