《亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2025年度报告》
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博鳌亚洲论坛|重磅报告发布!
证券时报· 2025-03-25 04:28
Core Viewpoint - The Boao Forum for Asia's 2025 annual meeting emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation and multilateralism in the face of global challenges, aiming to convey a strong message of confidence and collaboration to the international community [3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2025 Annual Report" indicates that despite challenges, Asian economies, particularly China and ASEAN, continue to show strong resilience and vitality, leading global economic growth [6]. - The report forecasts that by 2025, the economic growth rate of Asia is expected to rise to 4.5%, with its economic output accounting for 48.6% of the global total based on purchasing power parity [6]. - Key Asian economies such as China, India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Mongolia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are projected to maintain growth rates above 5% [6]. Group 2: Trade and Investment - Asian external goods trade is gradually recovering, with service trade maintaining rapid growth, particularly in China, which has achieved record highs in both goods and service trade [7]. - The reliance of global foreign investment on Asian economies has increased to around 60%, with China and ASEAN remaining the most attractive destinations for foreign investment [7]. - Asia is positioned as the core of global value chains, with a 41.17% share in global intermediate goods trade in 2023, surpassing the EU and North America [7]. Group 3: Financial Market Projections - The report anticipates that most Asian stock markets will maintain an upward trend despite increased volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risks [8]. - It is expected that the exchange rates of major Asian economies will remain stable, although many currencies may face depreciation pressure [8]. - The report suggests that inflation decline and continued loose monetary policies will provide a mild boost to economic activities, with a potential decrease in ten-year government bond yields [8]. Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The report indicates that fiscal expansion is expected to increase in many Asian economies, with a rise in fiscal deficit rates for 20 economies by 2025 [9]. - The easing of monetary policies is facilitated by declining inflation, which is conducive to stimulating economic growth [9]. - The implementation of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is anticipated to inject new momentum into Asian trade, with digital and green economies emerging as new highlights for regional economic integration [9]. Group 5: Climate Action and Green Development - The "Responding to Climate Change: Asia's Green Development 2025 Annual Report" highlights that green transformation is essential for sustainable development in Asia, with increasing coordination among governments, international organizations, and private sectors [9].