Core Viewpoint - The momentum for the Russia-Ukraine peace process is primarily driven by the mineral agreement, but this momentum is insufficient to achieve a lasting ceasefire or a long-term peace agreement. A greater push is needed for the peace process to advance [1][11][12]. Group 1: Recent Developments - As of May 2025, the Russia-Ukraine peace process has noticeably accelerated [2]. - On May 11, Russian President Putin proposed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey, to which Ukrainian President Zelensky responded positively, expressing willingness to meet face-to-face [3][4]. - Although Zelensky traveled to Turkey awaiting Putin, the latter did not attend, leading to a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations on May 16, marking the first direct talks in three years [5]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind the Peace Process - The acceleration of the peace process is attributed to the signing of the "U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement," which originated from the mineral agreement [6][10]. - The signing of the mineral agreement signifies a deep and long-term interest alignment between the U.S. and Ukraine, prompting Putin to propose negotiations as a strategic move to gauge U.S.-Ukraine relations [10]. Group 3: Perspectives of Key Leaders - For Putin, the mineral agreement represents a significant shift in U.S.-Ukraine relations, and his negotiation proposal serves both as a display of attitude and a strategic probe into future developments [10]. - Zelensky's proactive approach, including his trip to Turkey, stems from concerns about being sidelined following the mineral agreement's enactment, as there are factions within Ukraine that may seek to replace him [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The peace process may continue to progress, but the current momentum from the mineral agreement is only sufficient to initiate talks, not to secure a lasting ceasefire or peace [11]. - A potential future driving force could be a comprehensive assessment report on Ukraine's mineral resources, which could significantly influence the peace process if it yields favorable insights [13]. - However, there is a possibility that the report may disappoint both the U.S. and Ukraine, and currently, there seems to be no movement towards initiating such an assessment [14].

Core Viewpoint - The peace process between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated significantly as of May 2025, with both parties showing a willingness to engage in negotiations, marking a shift from previous stances of hostility and isolation [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - On May 11, President Putin proposed negotiations in Turkey, to which President Zelensky responded positively, even offering to meet face-to-face [1][2]. - Although Zelensky traveled to Turkey, Putin did not attend, leading to a meeting between the representatives of both countries on May 16, which was the first direct negotiation in three years [3]. - U.S. President Trump engaged in extensive diplomatic efforts, speaking with both leaders and European counterparts, indicating a complex interplay of interests among Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe [3]. Group 2: Motivations Behind the Peace Process - The acceleration of the peace process is attributed to the signing of the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement, which signifies a deepening of U.S.-Ukraine ties [4][5]. - Both leaders have different motivations: Putin views the agreement as a way to gauge U.S.-Ukraine relations and adjust his strategy, while Zelensky fears being sidelined and seeks recognition of his legitimacy from Russia [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The current momentum from the mineral agreement may initiate negotiations but is insufficient for a lasting ceasefire or peace agreement [8]. - A potential driving force for further progress could be a comprehensive assessment report on Ukraine's mineral resources, which remains uninitiated [10][11]. - The outcome of such a report could significantly influence the peace process, either positively or negatively, but there is currently a lack of action from both U.S. and Ukrainian sides regarding this investigation [12][13].