五粮液 501 古窖池白酒
Search documents
食品饮料行业周报:国庆出行数据较优,餐饮链表现改善-20251009
Huaxin Securities· 2025-10-09 08:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9][59]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector shows marginal improvement in sales during the double festival period, although it remains under pressure year-on-year. Inventory levels are slightly decreasing but still high, leading to anticipated price pressures as companies focus on controlling volume to maintain prices [6][57]. - The consumer goods and new consumption sectors are recovering, with significant increases in cross-regional mobility during the National Day holiday, reaching 2.432 billion people, a historical high. Retail and catering sales during this period grew by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for the restaurant chain industry [7][58]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the tea beverage sector, driven by high travel rates and promotional activities, suggesting a focus on companies like Mixue, Cha Bai Dao, and Gu Ming [7][58]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The report notes the official release of a public standard for the Fen Yang production area and reports on the production and revenue figures for the liquor and tea manufacturing industries [1][18]. Company News - Key developments include Moutai's launch of "instant delivery" services and the acquisition of Fresh Beer by Mixue Group for 297 million yuan [1][18]. Key Company Feedback - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting both gainers and losers over the past week [30][31]. Core Data Trends - The liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [34][34]. - The seasoning industry is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 687.1 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 10.23% [37][39]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend leaders in the liquor sector such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks that have corrected to attractive levels [6][57]. - In the consumer goods sector, attention is drawn to companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from ongoing recovery trends [7][58].