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光伏组件回收迎来“退役潮”,新国标出台助力行业步入“正规化”
Xinda Securities· 2026-02-28 12:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "retirement wave" of photovoltaic (PV) modules starting in 2025, with a significant increase in waste expected by 2030, reaching approximately 18GW or 140,000 tons. By 2040, the cumulative waste is projected to reach 253GW, equating to around 20 million tons. The market for PV recycling is anticipated to grow to approximately 26 billion yuan by 2030 and 420 billion yuan by 2050 [4][18][24]. - The introduction of new national standards for the recycling of PV modules is expected to drive the industry towards formalization, addressing the current lack of large-scale enterprises and the predominance of illegal recycling channels [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of environmental quality and industrial green development as part of the national "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting that energy conservation and environmental protection will maintain high levels of prosperity [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 27, the environmental sector saw a 7.0% increase, outperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.0% to 4162.88 [4][11]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the establishment of international standards for urban wastewater treatment facilities, which aims to enhance energy efficiency management in the context of carbon neutrality goals and high energy prices [29]. - The new environmental air quality standards released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment are set to tighten limits on particulate matter and other pollutants, enhancing public health protections [30][31]. Recycling Market Insights - The report notes that the current recycling capacity for PV modules is insufficient, with only about 20 qualified recycling companies in China capable of processing 300,000 tons annually, leaving a gap of 900,000 tons that is likely to flow into illegal channels [24][21]. - The report outlines the three main recycling technologies: physical, chemical, and pyrolysis methods, each with its advantages and limitations [21][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, while suggesting attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [48].