Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group (CDFG) continues to decline, with revenue and profit both showing significant drops, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [7][8]. Revenue Analysis - In Q4 2024, CDFG reported revenue of 135 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, reflecting a consistent downward trend without signs of recovery [11][13]. - The overall sales in Hainan's duty-free market decreased by 21%, but CDFG's revenue decline did not show improvement, suggesting a potential loss of market share [11][13]. - The decline in taxable sales revenue (-26%) is significantly higher than the decline in duty-free sales revenue (-16%), indicating that taxable sales remain a major factor in the overall revenue downturn [2][16]. Profitability Metrics - CDFG's gross profit for Q4 was 38 billion RMB, with a gross margin dropping to 28.5%, marking a continuous decline over three consecutive quarters [3][18]. - The gross margin for taxable sales plummeted from 17.4% to 8.9%, highlighting the need for adjustments in this segment to signal a potential turnaround [3][20]. - The company reported a net profit of only 5.5 billion RMB for the quarter, down from 6.6 billion RMB in the previous quarter, which is insufficient for a company with a market capitalization of over 1 trillion RMB [5][31]. Marketing and Operational Expenses - Marketing expenses remained stable at 22.7 billion RMB for the quarter, with a slight reduction in marketing expense ratio to 16.9% [4][22]. - Management expenses increased to 5.9 billion RMB, indicating efforts to control costs, but the reduction was not sufficient to offset revenue declines, leading to a rise in management expense ratio [4][27]. Future Outlook - The recovery of airport channels has been noted, with significant growth in duty-free sales at Beijing and Shanghai airports, but this is not enough to compensate for the larger decline in Hainan's duty-free sales [2][16]. - The market expects a profit of around 60 billion RMB for 2025, suggesting that current valuations are based on optimistic recovery scenarios, which may not materialize [8][29].