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江河集团(601886):扣非业绩高增、股息率优异,海外订单增长强劲
GF SECURITIES· 2026-03-22 05:15
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jianghe Group (601886.SH) with a current price of 8.00 CNY and a fair value of 9.10 CNY [5]. Core Insights - Jianghe Group reported a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 42.06% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 4.31% [5]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow and a high dividend payout ratio of 93%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.6% [5]. - The overseas orders have shown robust growth, with a total bid amount of 28.54 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.51% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2024A, 2025A, 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E are 22,406 million CNY, 21,845 million CNY, 23,133 million CNY, 24,498 million CNY, and 25,943 million CNY, respectively, with a growth rate of 6.9% in 2024 and a decline of 2.5% in 2025 [4]. - **Net Profit**: Forecasted net profits for the same years are 638 million CNY, 610 million CNY, 690 million CNY, 765 million CNY, and 837 million CNY, with a growth rate of -5.1% in 2024 and -4.3% in 2025 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.56 CNY, 0.54 CNY, 0.61 CNY, 0.68 CNY, and 0.74 CNY for the years 2024A to 2028E [4]. Order and Market Dynamics - The company has adopted a dual-driven business model of "EPC + platformization" for its overseas operations, achieving a significant increase in overseas orders, which accounted for 35% of total orders [5]. - The company secured new supply orders for curtain wall products worth 648 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 897% [5].