Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. federal government shutdown has risen to approximately 70%, with increasing skepticism among investors regarding Congress's ability to reach an agreement to fund government operations [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that if a government shutdown occurs, it will not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting [1] - The DOL's emergency plan indicates that if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying or canceling all scheduled economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The current impasse in Congress stems from disagreements over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill, with Democrats insisting that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include extensions for the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, while Republicans prefer to discuss these issues after passing a short-term funding bill [2] - President Trump met with key congressional leaders to discuss potential solutions to avoid a government shutdown, noting that at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the Republican version of a temporary funding bill [2] - The Trump administration has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress fails to reach an agreement, indicating that this shutdown could have more profound social and economic impacts compared to previous temporary furloughs of federal employees [2]