智通财经APP获悉，预测市场数据显示，美国联邦政府本周三关门的概率已攀升至约70%，投资者愈发 怀疑国会能否在最后时刻达成协议，以维持政府运作资金。 据Kalshi和Polymarket平台显示，在美国劳工部(DOL)宣布若政府关门将不发布本周五备受华尔街关注的 非农就业报告后，市场押注政府关门的交易明显增加。就在上周末，关门概率还维持在50%左右。 劳工部上周五公布了一份73页的应急预案，表示若政府关门，将进入"新闻与数据发布停摆"状态，并只 保留少数必要职能。劳工部旗下的劳工统计局(BLS)将全面暂停运作，期间所有计划发布的经济数据将 被延迟或取消。 这意味着原定于本周五发布的9月非农就业报告将被推迟，这是美联储在10月会议前的重要参考指标。 此外，每周四公布的初请失业金人数报告以及将于10月15日发布的消费者价格指数(CPI)也将受到影 响。CPI是10月28-29日美联储利率决议前最后一次通胀数据，若无法按时公布，将使市场失去关键指 引。 BLS每月通常会发布十余份经济报告，涵盖进出口价格、工资数据以及其他与消费者和就业相关的重要 指标。若政府关门持续，这些报告的数据收集工作也将全面停止。劳工部在文件 ...

如果美国劳工部按照年内早些时候制定的应急运营方案执行"关门"计划，其旗下的美国劳工统计局 （BLS）将推迟发布下一份非农就业报告。 美国9月份的就业形势报告原定于当地时间下周五（10月3日）公布，因其中有重要的"非农就业人数月 度变化"这一数据，该报告也被称作"非农报告"。 上周，美国国会参议院未表决通过众议院当天通过的临时预算案。鉴于2025财年将于下周二（9月30 日）结束，如果国会在当天前不能通过预算案，联邦政府将于午夜"关门"。 目前，潜在政府"关门"的具体范围尚不清楚，大多数政府机构——包括负责编制月度就业报告的劳工统 计局——也尚未更新政府"关门"之后的应急计划。 目前，劳工统计局由代理局长William Wiatrowski领导，直至特朗普提名的新局长获参议院确认。 3月方案还指出，停摆期间BLS官网不会更新，如遇技术故障也不会修复。文件还提到，"数据收集质量 的下降可能影响未来统计估算的质量。" 若政府停摆时间延长，BLS数据将持续推迟发布，意味着美联储可能在10月28-29日货币政策会议之 前，在就业与通胀方面缺乏一系列关键的经济统计数据。 本月早些时候，美联储的决策者鉴于劳动力市场降温迹象 ...

盾博dbg发现卡森集团首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克在社交平台上发帖，他表示在美联储经历5-12个月政策平台期后重启降息的11个历史案例中，标普500 指数有10次在随后一年实现上涨，他发现当货币政策从紧缩周期中抽身，市场往往能捕捉到流动性改善的先机。 鲍威尔在上周五的讲话当中首次将"就业市场健康度"放到和通胀同等重要的位置时，华尔街的交易员就觉得当前的政策将会改变，格伦梅德公司投资策略副 总裁迈克·雷诺兹指出，市场焦点已从"是否降息"转向"降息幅度与节奏"。 但克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克却提出了反对声音，揭示了货币政策委员会内部的深层分歧。 索斯尼克警告的"亢奋状态"在期权市场已有显现，VIX恐慌指数与标普500指数的背离走势，暗示着投资者可能低估了政策调整的复杂性。当降息预期从25 个基点向50个基点延伸时，市场需要重新校准风险溢价模型。 而地缘政治风险、全球供应链波动，以及新兴市场债务脆弱性则更有可能是改变降息的原因。 在9月17日决策日到来前的三周时间里，即将发布7月个人消费支出指数，8月非农就业报告，以及会议前夕的CPI与PPI数据组合，都可能会影响降息的最终 决策。 摩根士丹利首席经济学家艾伦·雷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant downward revision of 260,000 jobs in the U.S. non-farm payroll report raises serious questions about the credibility of this key economic indicator, primarily due to data adjustments and structural issues such as low survey response rates and potential impacts from the Trump administration [3][4][7]. Group 1: Employment Data Adjustments - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the non-farm payroll data for the previous two months downwards by 258,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - Specifically, the May data was revised down by 125,000 from +144,000 to +19,000, and June data was adjusted down by 133,000 from +147,000 to +14,000 [5][4]. - Approximately 40% of the downward revision in the 260,000 jobs is attributed to adjustments from state and local education departments, which were incorporated after the initial release [9]. Group 2: Discrepancy Between Job Openings and Employment Numbers - There is a notable divergence between the number of job openings and the actual number of employed individuals, with job openings increasing since 2022 while the number of employed people has remained relatively stagnant [10][11]. Group 3: Survey Response Rate Concerns - The accuracy of employment reports is being challenged by a fundamental issue: a declining willingness among businesses and households to participate in government surveys [12]. - The initial survey response rate has fallen below 60% in recent months, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic norm of over 70% [14]. - The lack of data collection leads to larger potential revisions, as highlighted by the president of a consulting firm who noted that a 50% response rate is insufficient [14]. Group 4: Underlying Causes of Response Rate Decline - The decline in survey response rates is attributed to long-standing social and institutional factors, including public fatigue with surveys and eroding trust in government institutions [15][16]. - Budget constraints and staffing limitations faced by statistical agencies have exacerbated the issue, particularly during the Trump administration, affecting their ability to collect and analyze economic data [17][18]. Group 5: Potential Impact of Policy Changes - Some economists suggest that rapid policy changes during the Trump administration in areas such as trade and immigration may have further deteriorated data quality, as businesses struggle to adapt [19]. - The BLS conducts annual benchmark revisions to calibrate data, but the preliminary estimates from last year showed the largest decline since 2009, reinforcing concerns about the reliability of initial economic data releases [19][20].