隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.86%，标准普尔500指数涨0.3%，纳指涨0.17%。 消息面上，美国就业市场意外爆冷，不及市场预期。 美东时间12月3日，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的就业数据显示，美国11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远 逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。 这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，美国就业市场面临的压力正在加大。 隔夜，现货黄金大多数时间稳定在4200上方，疲软的美国就业数据一度帮助金价盘中触及4241.40美元的高点，但尾盘回吐涨幅，收报4203美元附 近，接近收平。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4188美元附近徘徊。 降息大消息！ 另外，薪资增速同步放缓。ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。留在原岗位 的员工薪资增幅为4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。 目前，美国当局正陆续敲定部分经济数据发布日期。 当地时间12月3日，美国普查局宣布，美国10月耐用品数据的初步报告将于12月23日发布，9 ...

美国劳工统计局（BLS）宣布，取消了其10月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。该机构表示，它可以获取本月的 大部分非调查数据，并将"在可能的情况下"在11月份的CPI报告中发布10月份的数值。但11月份的报告将不包括那 些缺失了10月份数据项目的11月份环比百分比变化。 （图/东方IC） 而近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策的担忧。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，"在大雾 中开车时，你会怎么做？你会减速……有可能在行动上采取更为谨慎的态度会更合理。" 而据路透社报道，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams） 于当地时间周五公开称，"我认为货币政策目前适度紧 缩……因此，我认为短期内仍有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间。"威廉 姆斯的新言论使投资者认为，美联储12月会议降息25个基点的可能性接近60%，这与此前因担忧通胀而强烈认为 美联储将暂停降息的预期截然相反。 值得注意的是，美联储12月议息会议结果公布是当月11日，此前11月非农就业报告改期至12月16日发布，这意味 着美联储官员在议息会议前无法获得关键的"11月CPI报告+非农就业报告。" ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, and the focus is now on the delayed economic data, with the September non-farm payroll report set to be released next Thursday before the market opens [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also release the "real earnings" report the day after the non-farm data, which is crucial for understanding consumer purchasing power [1] - The only data released on time during the shutdown was the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it is essential for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits [1] Group 1 - The Commerce Department and its Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have not yet released a new data schedule, leaving key indicators like GDP and PCE without a confirmed release date [2] - This data gap has created market pressure and increased policy challenges for the Federal Reserve, as they must rely on alternative data to assess economic conditions [2] - Some data, such as the October CPI report, may never be collected due to the reliance on field data that could not be gathered during the shutdown [2] Group 2 - The BLS needs to restore multiple statistics, including import and export prices, job vacancies, producer prices, and labor productivity, while the Labor Department is responsible for weekly unemployment claims [3] - The Commerce Department oversees significant data releases, including personal income and spending (including the Fed's preferred PCE inflation), GDP, retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods orders [3] - The Census Bureau announced that it will publish August construction spending, factory orders, and international trade data next week, which were delayed due to the federal shutdown [3]

Group 1 - Senator Elizabeth Warren is urging the Trump administration to release the September employment report, which is crucial for economic data, especially given the Federal Reserve's concerns about a weak job market and rising unemployment rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of labor data for September, and it is likely ready for release [1][2] - The White House has attributed the government shutdown to Democrats, claiming it creates an "information vacuum" that hinders decision-making for investors, economists, and Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, including the BLS's non-farm payroll report and inflation reports, which are critical for economic assessments [1][3] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has also been asked to suspend operations, affecting the scheduled release of trade data and GDP figures [3] - The shutdown may force investors and Federal Reserve officials to rely on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicated a surprising drop in private sector employment, suggesting ongoing weakness in the job market [4]

Group 1 - The probability of a U.S. federal government shutdown has risen to approximately 70%, with increasing skepticism among investors regarding Congress's ability to reach an agreement to fund government operations [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced that if a government shutdown occurs, it will not release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report this Friday, which is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve ahead of its October meeting [1] - The DOL's emergency plan indicates that if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying or canceling all scheduled economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The current impasse in Congress stems from disagreements over healthcare policy in the appropriations bill, with Democrats insisting that any bill to avoid a shutdown must include extensions for the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, while Republicans prefer to discuss these issues after passing a short-term funding bill [2] - President Trump met with key congressional leaders to discuss potential solutions to avoid a government shutdown, noting that at least seven Democratic senators would need to support the Republican version of a temporary funding bill [2] - The Trump administration has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale permanent layoffs if Congress fails to reach an agreement, indicating that this shutdown could have more profound social and economic impacts compared to previous temporary furloughs of federal employees [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Labor Department may delay the release of the next non-farm employment report due to a potential government shutdown [1] - The report, originally scheduled for October 3, includes critical data on monthly changes in non-farm employment [1] - The Senate did not pass a temporary budget, risking a government shutdown at the end of the fiscal year on September 30 [1] Group 1 - If the government shuts down, all data collection and scheduled releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will cease, affecting approximately 2,000 employees who will be furloughed [1] - The BLS is currently led by acting director William Wiatrowski until a new director is confirmed by the Senate [1] - The March plan indicates that the BLS website will not be updated during the shutdown, and any technical issues will not be addressed, potentially impacting the quality of future statistical estimates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are closely monitoring labor market data, as they recently decided to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025 due to signs of a cooling labor market [2] - Without the employment report, officials will rely on private sector data, which may not be as comprehensive as government statistics [2] - The delay in the employment report could also affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for October 15 and disrupt the Social Security Administration's announcements regarding cost-of-living adjustments for retirees [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that historical cases show a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's shift from a tightening cycle to rate cuts and subsequent increases in the S&P 500 index, with 10 out of 11 instances resulting in market gains within a year [1] - Market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the magnitude and pace of rate cuts," with traders increasing the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September from 75% to 85% [3] - The upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the July Personal Consumption Expenditures index and August non-farm payrolls, will significantly influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [3] Group 2 - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, as highlighted by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's dissenting views [4] - The VIX index's divergence from the S&P 500 suggests that investors may be underestimating the complexities of policy adjustments, particularly if rate cut expectations shift from 25 to 50 basis points [4] - Geopolitical risks, global supply chain fluctuations, and emerging market debt vulnerabilities are more likely to influence changes in rate cut decisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant downward revision of 260,000 jobs in the U.S. non-farm payroll report raises serious questions about the credibility of this key economic indicator, primarily due to data adjustments and structural issues such as low survey response rates and potential impacts from the Trump administration [3][4][7]. Group 1: Employment Data Adjustments - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the non-farm payroll data for the previous two months downwards by 258,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - Specifically, the May data was revised down by 125,000 from +144,000 to +19,000, and June data was adjusted down by 133,000 from +147,000 to +14,000 [5][4]. - Approximately 40% of the downward revision in the 260,000 jobs is attributed to adjustments from state and local education departments, which were incorporated after the initial release [9]. Group 2: Discrepancy Between Job Openings and Employment Numbers - There is a notable divergence between the number of job openings and the actual number of employed individuals, with job openings increasing since 2022 while the number of employed people has remained relatively stagnant [10][11]. Group 3: Survey Response Rate Concerns - The accuracy of employment reports is being challenged by a fundamental issue: a declining willingness among businesses and households to participate in government surveys [12]. - The initial survey response rate has fallen below 60% in recent months, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic norm of over 70% [14]. - The lack of data collection leads to larger potential revisions, as highlighted by the president of a consulting firm who noted that a 50% response rate is insufficient [14]. Group 4: Underlying Causes of Response Rate Decline - The decline in survey response rates is attributed to long-standing social and institutional factors, including public fatigue with surveys and eroding trust in government institutions [15][16]. - Budget constraints and staffing limitations faced by statistical agencies have exacerbated the issue, particularly during the Trump administration, affecting their ability to collect and analyze economic data [17][18]. Group 5: Potential Impact of Policy Changes - Some economists suggest that rapid policy changes during the Trump administration in areas such as trade and immigration may have further deteriorated data quality, as businesses struggle to adapt [19]. - The BLS conducts annual benchmark revisions to calibrate data, but the preliminary estimates from last year showed the largest decline since 2009, reinforcing concerns about the reliability of initial economic data releases [19][20].