Summary of China Coal Thermal Coal Production and Inventory Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of August 14 to August 20, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **11,961 kt**, which represents a **1.6% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** but a **2.1% increase year-over-year (YoY)**. On a lunar calendar basis, the output increased by **2.2% YoY** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,972 kt** (+0.2% WoW, +12.1% YoY, +11.6% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,725 kt** (+0.7% WoW, +3.4% YoY, +3.7% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,264 kt** (-4.0% WoW, -3.7% YoY, -3.4% lunar YoY) [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **88.6%**, which is a **1.4 percentage points (ppt) decrease WoW** but a **1.8 ppt increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, it increased by **1.9 ppt YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.3%** (+0.1 ppt WoW, +9.3 ppt YoY, +8.9 ppt lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **95.1%** (+0.6 ppt WoW, +3.1 ppt YoY, +3.4 ppt lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **85.7%** (-3.6 ppt WoW, -3.3 ppt YoY, -3.0 ppt lunar YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,212 kt** as of August 20, 2025, reflecting a **1.0% increase WoW** and a **1.3% increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, it also increased by **1.0% YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **879 kt** (-0.1% WoW, +4.0% YoY, +3.4% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **712 kt** (+1.0% WoW, -9.8% YoY, -10.4% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,621 kt** (+1.7% WoW, +5.4% YoY, +5.6% lunar YoY) [4] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector, with the current pecking order of demand being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] - The year-to-date (YTD) thermal coal output for the sample mines reached **400 million tonnes (mnt)**, which is a **3.6% increase YoY** [2] This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production trends, utilization rates, and inventory levels, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics and potential investment opportunities.