固收及其他基金

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量化|权益基金指数化进程有望重塑销售格局
中信证券研究· 2025-03-25 00:14
Core Viewpoint - The total holding scale of the Top 100 distribution institutions has reached a new high, driven by the accelerated indexation process of equity funds, leading to an increase in the holding scale of stock index funds while the holding scale of actively managed equity funds has decreased [1][2]. Group 1: Total Holding Scale - As of the end of 2024, the total holding scale of non-monetary market funds by the Top 100 distribution institutions reached 9.54 trillion yuan, with equity funds accounting for approximately 50.88% of this total [2]. - The holding scale of stock index funds increased by 25.26% to 1.7 trillion yuan, while the holding scale of actively managed equity funds decreased by 6.54% to 3.15 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Concentration Trends - The concentration of non-monetary fund holdings among the Top 100 distribution institutions has shown a downward trend, with their market share in non-monetary funds around 50% at the end of 2024 [3]. - The concentration of the Top 25 distribution institutions decreased from 85.4% in Q1 2021 to 79.6% at the end of 2024, while the concentration of the Top 10 decreased from 65.3% to 57.1% [3]. Group 3: Distribution Channels - Among the Top 20 distribution institutions, stock index fund holdings have generally increased, while the holdings of actively managed equity funds have decreased, indicating a clear differentiation in distribution channels [4]. - The bank channel, as the largest distribution channel for equity funds, has been significantly impacted by the decline in actively managed equity fund holdings, leading to a decrease in the overall holding scale of equity and non-monetary funds [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The indexation process is expected to reshape the sales landscape, with brokerage channels likely to benefit, while other institutions need to seize transformation opportunities [7]. - The previously dominant position of direct sales in fixed-income funds is loosening, indicating a blue ocean market that requires attention [8]. - Different sales channels exhibit varying resource endowments, suggesting that future focus points will differ [9].