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中国房地产研报:春节楼市|穗渝等认购好于往年同期,节后2月将延续止跌回稳行情
立鼎证券· 2025-03-04 08:47
Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on recovery trends in key cities post-Spring Festival [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Guangzhou and Chongqing showed better performance compared to the same period last year, with a general trend of stabilizing after a decline [3][4]. - The overall transaction volume in 35 monitored cities during the Spring Festival week was approximately 234,600 square meters, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 11% [4]. - The first-tier cities experienced a significant increase in transactions, with a year-on-year growth of 134%, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [5][14]. - The demand for newly built homes remained strong, particularly in core urban areas, with a notable increase in the number of transactions for affordable and high-value projects [11][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Spring Festival saw a total of 18.43 million square meters of new home subscriptions across 19 key cities, with Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi'an each surpassing 20,000 square meters in subscriptions [6][12]. - The transaction volume for new homes during the Spring Festival was at its lowest for the year, but showed signs of recovery starting from the fourth day of the new year, reaching 45,000 square meters by February 4 [4][9]. City-Specific Trends - In Guangzhou, the subscription area increased by 71% year-on-year, while Chongqing reached its highest subscription volume in four years [9][12]. - The report highlights that cities like Wuhan and Chengdu maintained market heat due to strong product offerings, with several projects achieving high sales rates [16][17]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize in February, with expectations of positive year-on-year growth in transaction volumes [17][18]. - The differentiation in market performance is expected to persist, with strong demand for high-quality projects in core areas and competitively priced offerings in secondary markets [18].