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风电材料|风电行业景气高启,叶片环节增长可期
中信证券研究· 2025-03-05 00:16
Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is expected to experience a significant upturn due to technological advancements improving economic viability and grid integration advantages, leading to increased investment [1][2][7]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, domestic wind power installation demand is anticipated to accelerate as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, with an expected installation scale of over 115 GW by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 30% [2]. - Long-term global demand for offshore wind power is expected to remain strong, with the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for new installations over the next three years [2]. Blade Industry Insights - Wind turbine blades are critical components for converting wind energy into mechanical energy, accounting for 15%-20% of the total cost of a wind turbine [3]. - The domestic wind power blade market is projected to reach 38 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% and a CAGR of 13.5% from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Segment Analysis - **Molds**: The demand for wind blade molds is expected to reach 1.16 billion yuan by 2025, driven by production consumption and model updates [4][5]. - **Hub Castings**: The global wind turbine hub casting market is projected to reach 42.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.1% over the next three years [5]. - **Raw Materials**: Raw materials constitute over 70% of the cost structure of wind blades, with carbon fiber demand expected to reach 48,000 tons by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 13.4% from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Investment Strategy - The wind power industry is poised for a high growth phase, with blade and related material companies expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements, leading to sustained growth in performance [7].