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宁德的港股溢价之谜
36氪· 2025-10-24 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of CATL (宁德时代) in the third quarter, showcasing its robust financial results and the significant premium of its H-shares over A-shares, driven by macroeconomic liquidity conditions and the company's fundamental strengths [5][6][7][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, CATL reported a net profit of 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and a net profit of 16.4 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains, reflecting a 35% growth [6]. - Following the earnings report, CATL's shares opened higher in both Hong Kong and A-share markets, with H-shares trading at a 34% premium over A-shares [7][11]. Group 2: Market Pricing Dynamics - Typically, A+H listed companies see A-shares priced higher than H-shares, but CATL is an exception, with its H-shares significantly more expensive than A-shares [8][11]. - As of October 21, 2025, among 161 A+H listed companies, only four, including CATL, had H-shares trading at a premium to A-shares, with CATL's premium being the highest at 34% [9][11]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The article discusses the unusual liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong market following a significant appreciation of Asian currencies in early May 2025, which led to a substantial injection of liquidity by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [13][15]. - The Hibor rate dropped dramatically from 4.07% to 0.58% in May, creating an environment of excess liquidity that favored investments in high-quality assets like CATL [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - CATL's market share is expected to continue growing, with a current global market share of approximately 38%, despite a decline in domestic share and an increase in Europe [29][31]. - The company is set to release new production capacity starting in the second half of 2024, with projections for 2026 output exceeding 1 TWh, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [34][44]. - Analysts predict that CATL's net profit could reach between 88 billion to 93.5 billion yuan in 2026, with a potential market valuation of 2.2 trillion to 2.4 trillion yuan based on a 25x PE ratio [44].