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小鹏汽车-W(09868):看好AI智驾能力再进化
HTSC· 2026-03-05 06:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 104.10 [1][9][15] Core Views - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's AI driving capabilities and its evolution, highlighting multiple growth avenues including "dual energy + AI + robotics + external cooperation" [5][7] - The company experienced a significant drop in February sales, down 50% year-on-year, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and changes in tax incentives for new energy vehicles. However, sales are expected to recover in March with new model launches [6][5] - The second-generation VLA model was launched, enhancing driving capabilities and efficiency, and is expected to support L4 level autonomous driving [7] - The new X9 electric version was introduced, featuring advanced technology and competitive pricing, which is anticipated to boost sales significantly [8] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 are estimated at RMB 40.87 billion, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 130.50 billion by 2027 [4] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.41 billion in 2026, with a substantial increase to RMB 5.34 billion by 2027 [4] - The report maintains a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 0.95x for the automotive sales business, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [9][12] - The overall valuation is estimated at approximately HKD 1,990 million, leading to the target price of HKD 104.10 [15][12]