2025 年 07 月 22 日 | 日期 | 2025/7/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 22.32 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 33.34/20.60 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,910.36 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,385.90 | | 总股本(亿股) | 85.59 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 62.09 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 16.19 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 长城汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q4 业绩承压，新车周期叠加海外布 局加速发展可期—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.28 《Q4 业绩同比增长，海外/坦克/魏牌 有望继续贡献增量—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.1 汽车/乘用车 长城汽车（601633.SH） Q2 业绩创历史新高，新车周期强势开启增长可期 投资评级：买入（维持） 《2024 年业绩预计高增，坦克/魏牌有 望带来新增量—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.1.17 赵旭杨（分析师 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 21 日 吴迪 S0820525010001 021-32229888-25523 wudi@ajzq.com 汽车 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《汽车行业周报：Grok 上车或加速智能汽车"大 模型+算力"比拼》2025-07-14 《汽车行业周报：小鹏 G7 引领高算力，智能 汽车加速发展》2025-07-07 《汽车行业周报：新能源车消费季活动启动， 或促下沉市场潜力释放》2025-06-30 《智能汽车行业点评：小米 YU7 发布即爆单， 供给撬动需求》2025-06-28 《汽车行业周报：账期压缩细则待明晰，高资 金覆盖率车企或受益》2025-06-24 徐姝婧 S0820124090004 021-32229888-25517 xushujing@ajzq.com 行业及产业 理想 i8 或打开纯电产品序列增长空间 ——汽车行业周报（2025/07/14-2025/07/20） 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 强于大市 投资要点： 本周汽车板块涨跌幅+3.28%。本周 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 一、景气向上 ： 1 ）⼟地溢价率：低位反弹 。 7 ⽉ 13 ⽇当周，百城⼟地溢价率回升⾄ 7% ，近两周平均为 5.9% 。 6 ⽉为 5.47% 。 5 ⽉为 4.93% 。 2 ）物价："反内卷"情绪延续，国内资源品价格续涨 。⼭西产动⼒末煤 (Q5500) 秦皇岛港平仓价、京 唐港⼭西主焦煤库提价、钢之家焦炭价格指数、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿⽯价格指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中 国北⽅分别上涨 1.6% 、 6.7% 、 3.9% 、 0.9% 、 2.0% 。 3 、基建：⽯油沥⻘开⼯及⽔泥发运均好于去年。 截⾄ 7 ⽉ 16 ⽇当周，⽯油沥⻘装置开⼯率为 32.8% ，同⽐ +6.3% ；截⾄ 7 ⽉ 11 ⽇当周，⽔泥发运率为 40.1% ，去年同期为 37.4% 。 ⼆、景气向下： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数回落。截⾄ 7 ⽉ 13 ⽇，该指数为 5.96% ，较 7 ⽉ 6 ⽇ (7.05%) 回落 1.09% 。 具体来看， 4 ⽉以来华创 ...

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 7月第2周乘用车环比-8.9%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月20日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.7.14-2025.7.20 2 （ ➢本周复盘总结：七月第二周交强险36.2万辆，环比上周/上月周度-8.9%/-19.6%。 ➢本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+9.4%) >SW汽车零部件(+4.1%) >SW汽车 （+3.3%）>SW乘用车(+1.8%) >SW商用载客车(-1.0%) > SW摩托车及其他(-1.4%) 。 本周已覆盖标的恒帅股份，银轮股份，江淮汽车，蔚来-SW，威迈斯涨幅前五。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发深度报告《看好增程汽车国内市场发展前景》、《车灯行业 系列专题报告（二）之国内格局演化：日系衰退，欧系稳健，自主崛起》，外发金龙 汽车2025H1业绩预告点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）理想i8开启预订，预计售价35-40万元，分别有90.1度电/97.8 度电。正式上市发布 ...

► 本 周数据： 摘要 2025年7月第2周（7.7-7.13）乘用车销量37.0万辆，同比+4.0%，环比-8.7%；新能源乘用车销量20.7万辆，同比+11.7%，环比-4.0%；新能源渗透率55.8%， 环比+2.7pct。 ► 本周行情 ：汽车板块本周表现强于市场 近期工信部倡导汽车行业反内卷，提出账期缩短、价格管控、质量强化。我们认为，反内卷政策有助于减轻零部件现金流压力，提升产业链协同效率；同时抑制恶性降 价，推动竞争从价格战转向价值战，优化产能结构，看好反内卷大背景下汽车行业恶性竞争缓解，格局优化。本周，理想i8官宣开启预订，预售价35-40万元，将于7月 29日上市；吉利银河A7开启预售，预售价10.38-13.38万元，享界S9T外观官图发布，尚界首款车型H5官图发布，展望后续，伴随新车密集上市、交付上量（重点新车 包括理想i8、小鹏G7、吉利银河A7、M9、零跑B01、享界S9T、特斯拉Model Y L、问界M8纯电等），预计车市基本面将陆续向好。 ► 投资建议 本周（7月14日-7月18日）A股汽车板块上涨3.41%，在申万子行业中排名第3位，表现强于沪深300（+1.29%）。细分板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].

"近几年夏季车市淡季不淡的特征日益明显。"乘联分会数据显示，2014年至2019年的7月车市零售占全 年总量平均在6.9%，而2020年至2024年的7月车市零售占全年总量平均在8.4%，其中2024年仍达到7.5% 的占比。2025年2月起，行业置换率稳定在60%以上，已成为拉动乘用车市场的主要动力。 "期待以旧换新的效果下半年更强。"乘联分会建议地方政府加强预算编制的科学性和合理性，提前规划 好补贴资金的使用计划，避免出现资金提前用尽的情况。建议各地加强政策协调，制定统一的补贴标准 和实施细则，减少地区之间的差异。 7月16日，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会(简称"乘联分会")发布的数据显示，7月1日至13 日，全国乘用车市场零售57.1万辆，同比增长7%，较上月同期下降5%，今年以来累计零售1147.3万 辆，同比增长11%。 另外，数据显示，7月第一周全国乘用车市场日均零售4万辆，较去年7月同期增长1%，较上月同期下降 6%。7月第二周全国乘用车市场日均零售4.8万辆，较去年7月同期增长11%，较上月同期下降4%。 新能源市场方面，7月1日—13日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售33.2万辆，同比增 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index, reported a value of 2636.75 points, with a monthly increase of 2.98%, a three-month increase of 4.82%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.68% [1] - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen index series, which includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: Laopu Gold (2.32%), Leap Motor (1.91%), Fuyao Glass (1.63%), Great Wall Motors (1.43%), Tongcheng Travel (1.38%), BAIC Blue Valley (1.31%), Chao Feng Power (1.31%), Gongxiao Daji (1.29%), Wanfeng Aowei (1.23%), and Magpow (1.19%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 42.90%, Shanghai Stock Exchange 31.40%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange 25.70% [2] - The industry composition of the index's holdings includes: Passenger Cars and Parts 44.98%, Durable Consumer Goods 16.70%, Textiles, Apparel, and Jewelry 13.19%, Consumer Services 12.62%, and Retail 12.51% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is reported at 3880.00 points, with a recent increase of 2.84% over the past month and a slight decrease of 0.47% year-to-date [1][2] - The CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is composed of various sectors categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, and over 90 tertiary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index include Sichuan Changhong (6.97%), Ninebot (6.54%), Chuanfeng Power (4.85%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of companies [2] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is primarily from the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 62.05%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 37.95% [2] - The index's holdings are significantly concentrated in the passenger vehicles and parts sector (35.37%) and durable consumer goods (34.76%), highlighting the focus on these industries [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring the index remains reflective of market conditions [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **automobile industry** in China, focusing on passenger car exports and sales performance in the first quarter of the year [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Passenger Car Exports**: In Q1, the overall export growth rate for passenger cars was **6.1% year-on-year**. Domestic brands saw an export growth of **11.5%**, while joint ventures experienced a decline of **16.7%**. The decline in joint venture exports was significantly influenced by Tesla, which saw a **57% year-on-year drop** in export volume, equating to a reduction of **50,000 units** [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The company maintains a positive outlook on **plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)**, expecting them to lead the next phase of global electrification. The anticipated growth in PHEV exports is expected to offset the decline caused by Tesla's performance [2]. - **Sales Projections**: The sales performance in Q1 suggests an implied annual growth rate of **7.8%** based on seasonal trends. This figure is derived from the Q1 sales of **4.96 million units**, which is adjusted for seasonal factors. However, this growth rate may need to be discounted due to the reduced impact of new vehicle purchase incentives compared to previous years [3][4]. - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape has shifted, with notable changes in market share among key models. For instance, the **Dihao** and **Hikang Galaxy** models saw the largest market share increases, while the **Volkswagen Langyi** experienced a decline of **1.7 percentage points** [5][6]. - **Product Launches and Market Dynamics**: The launch of new models, such as the **Tank 300** and the **Tesla Model Y**, has contributed to significant market share gains. The **Lynk & Co 900**, set to launch on April 28, is also expected to impact the high-end SUV segment positively, with early indications of strong pre-orders [6]. Additional Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of pricing strategies in the current market, with several brands implementing aggressive pricing to boost sales. For example, the **Buick Regal** saw a **2 percentage point** increase in market share following a price reduction strategy [5]. - The impact of external factors, such as the potential return of General Motors and Ford to the North American market, may further influence export volumes in the near term [2]. - The overall sentiment in the industry remains cautious yet optimistic, with expectations of stable volume and gradual price increases in the passenger vehicle market [4]. - The conference concluded with a note on upcoming opportunities and recommendations for investment in specific companies within the sector, indicating a strategic focus on emerging market players [7].