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国科军工(688543):首次覆盖报告:固体发动机与弹药双轮驱动,军民融合释放成长潜力
国泰海通· 2026-01-09 08:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 74.12 CNY [5][24]. Core Insights - The company is a significant supplier of solid propulsion and ammunition systems in China, benefiting from increased defense budgets and ammunition replenishment, leading to strong growth in military product sales [2][11]. - The company has established a dual product system focusing on missile solid propulsion and ammunition equipment, with a strong emphasis on military applications while extending technology into civilian sectors [11][26]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.04 billion CNY in 2023, increasing to 1.88 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.9% [4][16]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 1,040 million CNY in 2023 to 1,883 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 15.8%, 15.8%, 16.5%, and 15.9% respectively [4][16]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 141 million CNY in 2023 to 330 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 27.3%, 41.3%, 14.2%, 21.3%, and 19.8% [4][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.67 CNY in 2023 to 1.58 CNY in 2027 [4][15]. Business Segmentation - Military products are the primary revenue source, expected to contribute over 90% of total revenue from 2023 to 2027, with military revenue projected to grow at rates of 16% to 17% during this period [15][40]. - Civilian products are anticipated to experience slower growth, with revenue fluctuations expected, including a projected decline in 2024 [15][40]. - The company is also involved in contracted research and development, which is expected to see a significant decline in revenue over the forecast period [15][40]. Market Trends - The global solid rocket motor market is projected to grow from approximately 10.4 billion USD in 2024 to 23.1 billion USD by 2034, driven by defense modernization and missile system upgrades [48][52]. - The demand for solid rocket engines is expected to remain strong due to their application in tactical and strategic missile systems, as well as in space launch vehicles [52][50]. - The ammunition market is also expected to expand steadily, supported by both military and civilian applications [55][56].