| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/02 | | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/25 | 339.09 | 385.63 | -8.01 | 648.85 | -263.22 | 25.67 | 46.54 | | 2025/11/26 | 345.00 | 390.40 | -7.55 | 639.56 | -249.16 | 24.29 | 45.40 | | 2025/11/27 | 351.22 | 390.78 | -7.41 | 651.68 | -260.90 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis weakened. The HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur is supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis is weakening rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 367.09 to 353.50, a change of - 6.29; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from 406.14 to 403.35, a change of - 7.88; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased from - 4.95 to - 7.45, a change of - 0.48; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 687.85 to 734.17, a change of 1.75; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 281.71 to - 330.82, a change of - 9.63; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 30.65 to 34.17, a change of 0.50; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 39.05 to 49.85, a change of - 1.59. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 359.55 to 348.42, a change of - 6.90; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 366.12 to 354.42, a change of - 6.15; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 439.87 to 448.06, a change of - 0.93; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 90.65 to 96.80, a change of 3.51; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased from - 5.70 to - 8.25, a change of - 0.80; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 230.94 to - 268.26, a change of - 26.90. [4] - **Spot Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore decreased from 351.45 to 348.03, a change of - 0.09; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from 438.13 to 446.12, a change of - 2.87; the 380 basis increased from - 6.03 to - 5.80, a change of 0.75; the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 3.7 to 3.2, a change of - 2.7; the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 7.5 to 7.2, a change of - 1.2. [5] Domestic FU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2595 to 2560, a change of 2; the price of FU 05 increased from 2618 to 2609, a change of 3; the price of FU 09 decreased from 2586 to 2578, a change of - 1; the FU 01 - 05 decreased from - 23 to - 49, a change of - 1; the FU 05 - 09 increased from 32 to 31, a change of 4; the FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 9 to 18, a change of - 3. [5] Domestic LU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3164 to 3266, a change of 19; the price of LU 05 increased from 3154 to 3240, a change of 17; the price of LU 09 increased from 3170 to 3246, a change of 14; the LU 01 - 05 increased from 10 to 26, a change of 2; the LU 05 - 09 increased from - 16 to - 6, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 decreased from 6 to - 20, a change of - 5. [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the near - month spread declined and returned to the historical low for the same period. EW continued to weaken and rebounded on Friday. The 380 9 - 10 spread weakened to around $2, the 380 basis continued to weaken to -$7.25/ton, and the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded and then fluctuated [5]. - The Singapore 0.5 cracking fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to around $2.75, the LU internal - external spread weakened, and the 09 internal - external spread dropped to $0.7 [6]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased slightly, floating storage decreased, the near - month spread was under pressure, Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month, imports from Saudi Arabia also increased, and the UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high [6]. - High - sulfur supply and demand are still in the peak season. After the 380 cracking declined, it fluctuated. Currently, the EW arbitrage window is theoretically open, and the internal - external spread repaired and then fluctuated [6]. - This week, the hi - 5 spread fluctuated after a slight decline. The domestic LU internal - external spread decline was realized, and the FU - LU internal - external valuation was partially realized. Attention should be paid to whether there is support for the 380 near - month contract [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Data Rotterdam Market - From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by $6.61, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by $5.21, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.07, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $1.78, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by $3.43, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by $2.03, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by $1.40 [4]. Singapore Market - For Singapore fuel oil swaps from July 23 to July 29, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 had a certain price change, Singapore 180cst M1 also changed, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed, and Singapore GO M1 changed. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 also had corresponding changes [4]. - For Singapore fuel oil spot, from July 23 to July 29, 2025, FOB 380cst increased by $5.89, FOB VLSFO increased by $8.44, and the 380 basis decreased by $0.05 [4]. Domestic Market - For domestic FU from July 23 to July 29, 2025, FU 01 increased by 40, FU 05 increased by 35, FU 09 increased by 48, FU 01 - 05 increased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 13, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 8 [4]. - For domestic LU from July 23 to July 29, 2025, LU 01 increased by 69, LU 05 increased by 48, LU 09 increased by 88, LU 01 - 05 increased by 21, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 40, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 19 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread declined, the 380-month spread decreased, and the basis strengthened. The low-sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near-term month spread slightly weakened, and the basis weakened. This week, inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, inventories in ARA ports continued to accumulate, and US residual oil inventories decreased slightly. Recently, the low-sulfur valuation has shown that there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the inter-month spread after the supply recovers. The high-sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the game in the overseas market remains strong. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has declined significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high-sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year-on-year, and Singapore remained basically flat. The total marine fuel was weaker year-on-year. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities in the future. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. High-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Pay attention to the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium term. The domestic production schedule is relatively high, and the idea of shorting LU at high levels both domestically and overseas remains unchanged. [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 increased from 397.00 to 416.62, with a change of 9.39; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased from 450.35 to 469.90, with a change of 11.94; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased from -2.45 to -3.10, with a change of -0.14; the price of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 599.39 to 628.77, with a change of 12.17; the Rotterdam VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -149.04 to -158.87, with a change of -0.23; the LGO-Brent M1 remained unchanged at 17.90; the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 increased from 53.35 to 53.28, with a change of 2.55 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 412.03 to 430.99, with a change of 10.92; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 418.53 to 431.27, with a change of 4.30; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 478.40 to 501.76, with a change of 15.62; the price of Singapore GO M1 increased from 79.75 to 84.48, with a change of 2.50; the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 decreased from 0.57 to -0.91, with a change of -0.63; the Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 decreased from -111.75 to -123.39, with a change of -2.88 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FOB 380cst decreased from 435.70 to 435.55, with a change of -5.55; the FOB VLSFO increased from 489.42 to 499.42, with a change of 2.64; the 380 basis increased from 10.50 to 12.95, with a change of 0.70; the high-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference decreased from 6.7 to 6.8, with a change of -0.2; the low-sulfur domestic and overseas price difference increased from 18.4 to 17.6, with a change of 1.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the FU 01 remained unchanged at 2780; the FU 05 increased from 2657 to 2727, with a change of 10; the FU 09 decreased from 2853 to 2912, with a change of -12; the FU 01-05 decreased from 55 to 53, with a change of -10; the FU 05-09 increased from -196 to -185, with a change of 22; the FU 09-01 decreased from 141 to 132, with a change of -12 [2] Domestic LU Data - From June 5th to June 11th, the LU 01 decreased from 3356 to 3414, with a change of -17; the LU 05 decreased from 3280 to 3348, with a change of -10; the LU 09 increased from 3450 to 3524, with a change of 6; the LU 01-05 decreased from 76 to 66, with a change of -7; the LU 05-09 decreased from -170 to -176, with a change of -16; the LU 09-01 increased from 94 to 110, with a change of 23 [3]

| 燃料油早报 | | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/09 | | --- | | | | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2025/04/29 | 400.14 | 429.70 | -0.68 | 590.03 | -160.33 | 17.36 | 29.56 | | 2025/04/30 | 394.65 | 422.85 | -0.52 | 580.80 | -157.95 | 18.60 | 28.20 | | 2025/05/06 | 380.62 | 426.34 | -2.19 | 571.31 | -144.97 | 16.94 | 45.72 | | 2025/ ...

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market fluctuated, the 380 - grade monthly spread weakened, the 380 - grade basis fluctuated at a high level, and there was pressure on the inside - outer market of FU. In terms of fundamentals, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore, a drawdown in ARA, an inventory build - up in EIA onshore, an increase in floating storage, a significant drawdown in high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East, a drawdown in both onshore and floating storage in Fujairah, and a drawdown in floating storage in Singapore. Saudi Arabia's shipments rebounded month - on - month, while the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. In 2025, attention should be paid to the increase in global heavy - oil valuation due to sanctions on Iran. In the Asian region, attention should be paid to whether Russian supply will return to the benchmark. Recently, the decline in floating storage in the Middle East and the onshore inventory build - up in Singapore have put pressure on the near - term monthly spread of 380 - grade fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the situation in Singapore is weak. This week, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the inside - outer price spread also fluctuated at a low level. Global heavy - oil supply remains tight, and the supply of 380 - grade standard products is still tight. If the window rules remain unchanged, the inside - outer market is expected to remain weak in summer, and the domestic market will fluctuate around the fundamentals of downstream demand. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Market - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - 3.35, 1.41, - 0.23, - 3.47, 4.88, - 0.25, and 4.76 respectively from March 26 to April 1 [1]. Singapore Market - In the Singapore market, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore GO M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by 3.09, 2.09, 5.88, 0.64, - 0.08, and 2.95 respectively from March 26 to April 1. For Singapore fuel oil spot, the FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, 380 basis, high - sulfur inside - outer spread, and low - sulfur inside - outer spread had corresponding price changes, with the high - sulfur inside - outer spread changing by - 0.9 and the low - sulfur inside - outer spread changing by 1.0 [1]. Domestic Market - In the domestic FU market, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 71, 102, 89, - 31, 13, and 18 respectively from March 26 to April 1. In the domestic LU market, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 100, 99, 112, 1, - 13, and 12 respectively from March 26 to April 1 [1].