Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]

Group 1: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 on 2026/03/25 was 580.96, and on 2026/03/31 it was 596.33, with a change of -36.45 [1] - Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 on 2026/03/25 was 608.65, and on 2026/03/31 it was 631.26, with a change of -32.76 [1] - Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 on 2026/03/25 was -4.99, and on 2026/03/31 it was -9.25, with a change of -1.68 [1] - Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 on 2026/03/25 was 1068.94, and on 2026/03/31 it was 1221.25, with a change of -44.00 [1] - Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 on 2026/03/25 was -460.29, and on 2026/03/31 it was -589.99, with a change of 11.24 [1] - LGO - Brent M1 on 2026/03/25 was 39.06, and on 2026/03/31 it was 49.92, with a change of -3.94 [1] - Rotterdam VLSFO - HSF M1 on 2026/03/25 was 27.69, and on 2026/03/31 it was 34.93, with a change of 3.69 [1] Group 2: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - Singapore 380cst M1 on 2026/03/25 was 606.07, and on 2026/03/30 it was 710.72 [1] - Singapore 180cst M1 on 2026/03/25 was 610.82, and on 2026/03/30 it was 715.23 [1] - Singapore VLSFO M1 on 2026/03/25 was 718.69, and on 2026/03/30 it was 816.17 [1] - Singapore Gasoil M1 on 2026/03/25 was 148.75, and on 2026/03/30 it was 200.89 [1] - Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 on 2026/03/25 was 1.15, and on 2026/03/30 it was 3.05 [1] - Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 on 2026/03/25 was -382.06, and on 2026/03/30 it was -670.42 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - FOB 380cst on 2026/03/25 was 631.62, and on 2026/03/31 it was 691.98, with a change of -42.53 [2] - FOB VLSFO on 2026/03/25 was 799.62, and on 2026/03/31 it was 838.95, with a change of -15.64 [2] - 380 base difference on 2026/03/25 was 26.00, and on 2026/03/31 it was 28.25, with a change of -6.70 [2] - High - sulfur internal - external price difference on 2026/03/25 was 19.2, and on 2026/03/31 it was -30.5, with a change of -1.4 [2] - Low - sulfur internal - external price difference on 2026/03/25 was 77.4, and on 2026/03/31 it was 37.3, with a change of -2.6 [2] Group 3: Domestic FU Data - FU 01 on 2026/03/25 was 3651, and on 2026/03/31 it was 3736, with a change of -122 [2] - FU 05 on 2026/03/25 was 4348, and on 2026/03/31 it was 4446, with a change of -173 [2] - FU 09 on 2026/03/25 was 3890, and on 2026/03/31 it was 4016, with a change of -158 [2] - FU 01 - 05 on 2026/03/25 was -697, and on 2026/03/31 it was -710, with a change of 51 [2] - FU 05 - 09 on 2026/03/25 was 458, and on 2026/03/31 it was 430, with a change of -15 [2] - FU 09 - 01 on 2026/03/25 was 239, and on 2026/03/31 it was 280, with a change of -36 [2] Group 4: Domestic LU Data - LU 01 on 2026/03/25 was 4209, and on 2026/03/31 it was 4451, with a change of -181 [3] - LU 05 on 2026/03/25 was 5159, and on 2026/03/31 it was 5159, with a change of -126 [3] - LU 09 on 2026/03/25 was 4505, and on 2026/03/31 it was 4650, with a change of -307 [3] - LU 01 - 05 on 2026/03/25 was -950, and on 2026/03/31 it was -708, with a change of -55 [3] - LU 05 - 09 on 2026/03/25 was 654, and on 2026/03/31 it was 509, with a change of 181 [3] - LU 09 - 01 on 2026/03/25 was 296, and on 2026/03/31 it was 199, with a change of -126 [3] Group 5: Additional Singapore Data on 2026/03/31 - Singapore data on 2026/03/31: 653.12, 680.17, 805.55, 188.40, -0.39, -588.61, with changes of -57.60, -35.06, -10.62, -12.49, -3.44, 81.81 respectively [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the progress of the cease - fire negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea [3][4]. - Different sectors have different market trends. For example, in the oil product sector, the prices are affected by supply - demand relations and geopolitical factors; in the chemical industry, the prices are influenced by policies, supply - demand, and cost factors; in the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices are supported by cost and demand factors [3][5][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: The intention of the US and Iran to cease the war has led to a decline in rising oil prices. - Fundamental: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global crude oil supply is generally tight. Incidents in Ukraine and the Red Sea have further aggravated supply concerns. - Macro: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have risen, and market sentiment has improved with the easing of the geopolitical situation [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the downward space for cracking is limited. - Fundamental: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, and the supply is still tight in April. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply - demand balance, and the supply - side tightening support is strong [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is still support in the short term. - Fundamental: Although the price has decreased due to the US's cease - fire intention, the supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical progress and downstream negative feedback. - Fundamental: The futures price has risen, the spot market has a general trading atmosphere, the supply load has increased, and the demand load has decreased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts [8][9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Policy and supply - demand are in a stalemate, and the price is in a high - level consolidation. - Fundamental: The market price is relatively stable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The tense geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran makes the short - term import shortage difficult to solve, supporting high - level operation, but the risk of chasing high prices is increasing. - Fundamental: The price is in a high - level shock, the port price has declined, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import shortage will support the high - level operation of the price, but attention should be paid to the risk of the reversal of the bullish logic [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The rigid demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure is large. - Fundamental: The price is weakly stable, the inventory has changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase. The rebound needs supply - side production cuts, but the production - cut drive is not clear [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: Both supply and demand are weak, and production cuts continue. - Fundamental: The short - term market sentiment is weak, the supply is decreasing, and the market is in a game between low supply and weak demand. In the medium term, the cost pressure has increased, and the support of low supply for the spot price will increase after the demand out of the off - season [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loosening, and the export end shows signs of weakening. - Fundamental: The short - term spot price shows a marginal weakening trend, the export demand still has support, but attention should be paid to the price decline risk if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The upstream mine has disturbances, the processing fee is at a low level, the demand is growing structurally, the inventory is in a state of destocking in some places, and the long - term demand for new energy transformation is beneficial [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The monetary policy outlook is uncertain, the Middle East conflict has an impact on inflation and the US dollar index, and the weakening of the US dollar index may drive the rise of the gold price [18]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations, and the price trend is full of uncertainties [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and may continue to rise in the short term due to increased geopolitical risks on the supply side, strong Asian refining activities on the demand side, and stable inventory with potential supply risks that could inhibit inventory accumulation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 30, 2026, the price of the SC main contract rose from 740.8 yuan/barrel on March 27 to 763.5 yuan/barrel, a 3.06% increase. The WTI and Brent main contract prices remained stable at 101.18 and 106.29 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened from 0.91 US dollars/barrel to 4.15 US dollars/barrel, a 356.04% increase, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 6.02 US dollars/barrel to 9.26 US dollars/barrel, a 53.82% increase. The Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 5.11 US dollars/barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread rose slightly from 16.9 yuan/barrel to 17.9 yuan/barrel, a 5.92% increase [1]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks. Houthi attacks on Israel and the US warning to Iran have increased concerns about supply disruptions. Vietnam's refineries are seeking to diversify their supply sources [2]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is strong, mainly driven by Asian refining activities. Vietnam's refineries have high production targets and capacity utilization, and India's export tax exemption may stimulate export demand. Asian naphtha refining profits have reached record highs [2]. - **Inventory Side**: On March 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3,511,000 barrels, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 49,960 tons, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 35,600 tons [2]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: The SC price increased, while WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, and other prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened significantly, while the Brent - WTI spread remained stable. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and most other assets remained unchanged, and the RMB exchange rate had a 0.04% change [5]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU and LU prices increased, while some international fuel oil futures prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Paper Prices**: Some paper prices were not available. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.90%. - **Inventory**: Some Platts prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On March 30, Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical is negotiating to buy Russian crude oil, will increase purchases of African and US crude oil, and has secured 2.3 million barrels of Vietnamese crude oil for May and June production. It will produce 2 million tons of fuel in the second quarter with a capacity utilization rate of 123% and aims to produce 8.3 million tons of petroleum products in 2026 [7][8]. b. Demand - India exempts refineries in special economic zones from export taxes on diesel and aviation kerosene, and Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel policy [9]. c. Inventory - An oil storage tank in Haifa, Israel, was attacked, but the loss was minor. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased [10][11]. d. Market Information - The market's concern about long - term supply disruptions in the Middle East has increased, pushing Asian naphtha refining profits to a record high. Asian buyers are seeking alternative supply pricing mechanisms. Vietnam's refinery will put new oil storage tanks into use in May [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and refinery operating rates [13][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with Trump warning Iran and the Houthi rebels launching missile attacks on Israel, which may lead to further escalation of the conflict and push up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the overall center of gravity is moving upward [1]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil, and the supply is actually tightening. They are expected to maintain high - level operation, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted [2]. - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the end of the conflict should be noted, and its price volatility is expected to be smaller than that of other oil products [2]. - The polyester industry chain follows the cost - end fluctuations. The PX has many overhauls, the PTA operating load is at a high level, and the coal - based and oil - based production of ethylene glycol is differentiated. The downstream polyester yarn sales are sluggish [3]. - The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly. The cash trends of natural rubber and butadiene are differentiated [5]. - The methanol inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is de - stocking, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the WTI May contract closed up $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the Brent May contract closed up $0.21 to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase; the SC2605 closed at 759.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.1 yuan per barrel, a 0.41% decrease. Geopolitical tensions may further push up oil prices, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 4.05% to 4,619 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.44% to 5,285 yuan per ton. Affected by factors such as the rise in diesel cracking and freight, the supply is tightening, and it is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2606 rose 0.02% to 4,513 yuan per ton. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to be strong [2]. - **Polyester**: The TA605 closed at 6,768 yuan per ton, down 1.57%; the EG2605 closed at 5,359 yuan per ton, up 1.52%. The industry chain is affected by the cost and device changes, and the market is waiting for the development of the situation [3]. - **Rubber**: The main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,540 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 110 yuan per ton to 13,845 yuan per ton. The natural rubber inventory is slightly increasing, and the butadiene rubber is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian plants may suppress price increases, and the market is prone to large fluctuations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device overhauls and production cuts are more, and the demand is gradually released in spring. However, the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, which may hinder the growth of subsequent demand [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC export will supplement the domestic demand to a certain extent, and the short - selling power has not weakened. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on March 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump warned Iran that unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the US will destroy its oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island. He also said that the response to Iran's attack on an Israeli refinery "will come soon" [9]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that as more ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz over time [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are multiple charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][14][17][20][23][27][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [29][30][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][44][47][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [54][56][57][59] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [61][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - BU: Oscillating [1] - FU/LU: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant collapse of the asphalt cracking spread and the extreme compression of production profits have led to a substantial shrinkage in domestic supply. Although the inventory is still at a high level, concerns about the continuous tightening of short - term supply are difficult to alleviate. With the gradual start of road demand in the north in the second quarter, the absolute price of asphalt is unlikely to decline significantly, and the slow repair of the cracking spread is more worthy of attention [2][79] - The fuel oil market has higher elasticity than the asphalt market. It is still in an oscillation period dominated by geopolitical games. The short - term risk is still the instability of supply, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental pricing. In the most optimistic scenario, the supply tension is expected to ease in late April. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, the cracking spread will weaken, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. Overall, no significant price correction is expected in the second quarter [3][79][80] Summary According to the Directory 1. Asphalt: Cracking Spread Collapse, Significant Supply Contraction - **Cost Increase and Profit Squeeze**: The US intervention in Venezuelan crude oil sales has led to a significant reduction in the discount of Merey crude oil, pushing up the production cost of local refineries. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March caused international oil prices to soar, while the increase in asphalt prices was far less than that of crude oil, resulting in a rapid decline in the cracking spread and production profits. The problem of raw material shortage is expected to persist in the second quarter [11][14][15] - **Substantial Supply Contraction and Limited Inventory Pressure**: In mid - March, major refineries reduced production or stopped shipping due to concerns about raw material shortages and increased losses. The output in March and April decreased significantly year - on - year. Overseas supply also shrank significantly. Although the current asphalt inventory is high, the short - term supply shortage makes the near - month price easy to rise and difficult to fall [21] - **Upcoming Demand and Price Support**: The second quarter is the recovery period of asphalt demand. Although the demand growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, the early allocation of special bonds may support the improvement of demand. The key to the absolute price of asphalt lies in when the raw material shortage can be resolved, and the gradual return of the cracking spread is a more certain long - term trend [26][27] 2. Fuel Oil: Low - Sulfur Remains Relatively Strong, Focus on the Long - Term Return of Cracking Spread - **Disruption of Persian Gulf Fuel Oil Supply and Strong Cracking Spread**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 cut off the only shipping route for Persian Gulf product exports, causing a supply gap of about 250,000 tons of high - sulfur fuel oil, accounting for about 20% of global demand. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from key refineries has also been affected [36][37][38] - **Differentiated Trends of High - and Low - Sulfur, Low - Sulfur Gaining the Upper Hand**: At the beginning of the geopolitical conflict, high - sulfur prices rose more strongly. However, as diesel prices soared, the relative relationship between high - and low - sulfur reversed, and the high - low sulfur spread began to widen. The term structure of fuel oil also showed different trends for high - and low - sulfur [45][46][48] - **Differentiated Supply and Demand in Ports, Stable Inventory in Singapore**: The fuel oil market fluctuations vary in different regions. The supply in the Middle East has been severely affected, while Singapore has shown more resilience due to the inflow of Russian goods. The demand has also been redistributed among ports. Although Singapore has buffered the supply impact, the low - sulfur blending pool has not been substantially alleviated [58][59][69] - **The Strait of Hormuz is the Key, Don't Be Over - Optimistic about Resumed Navigation**: The current situation has not been substantially alleviated. In the most optimistic scenario, supply relief in Singapore may occur in late April, and the price correction may occur at the end of the second quarter. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. In the pessimistic scenario, fuel oil prices will continue to soar [70][75][77] 3. Summary and Outlook - The marginal changes in the supply side are the key factors affecting the asphalt and fuel oil markets in the second quarter. The main price ranges of BU, FU, and LU in the second quarter are expected to be [3800,4800], [4000,5000], and [4500,6500] yuan/ton respectively, and the high - low sulfur spread in Singapore is expected to be in the range of [100,200] US dollars/ton. If the geopolitical situation does not change significantly, opportunities to buy the asphalt cracking spread and the high - low sulfur spread at low prices can be considered. If the seasonal rigid demand for asphalt recovers strongly, the opportunity for the BU - FU spread to widen can also be considered [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].