国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月12日 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：盘面转入弱势，FU相对偏强 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格持续下跌，目前已经来到年内低点。高硫方面，市场成交有小幅好转，升贴水有所上升，中东发运量维持高位，但俄罗斯在 近期遭遇国内燃料短缺以及无人机袭击导致的炼油产能下线，因此其高硫出口数量未来很难恢复，这将对整个亚太现货市场产生支撑。低硫 方面，亚太地区目前没有明显的供应缺口，各地现货仍在正常发运，但8月新加坡船燃销量数据较好，需求端有一定支撑。内盘方面，配额问 | | --- | --- | | | 题已经被市场充分计价，但舟山地区继续发生累库，盘面仍有仓单。此外，LU与新加坡现货仍然存在价差，这意味着一旦内盘出现短缺，进 | | | 口将成为有效的补充，因此LU的估值近期将持续受到压制，可能将使得LU短期内继续弱于FU。 | | 估值 | FU：2650~3000 LU：3150~3450 | | | 1）单边：FU、LU跟随原油下跌，短期进入弱势周期 | | 策略 | 2）跨期：F ...

目前来看，燃料油行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于燃料油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 银河期货指出，俄罗斯能源设施受袭持续，但炼厂与各运输设施检修回归也较及时，Primorsk港于9月 中旬受袭后两日就恢复石油装载，梁赞及伏尔加格勒等大炼厂设施也处于陆续回归恢复状态。中东高硫 出口随着发电需求消退有所回升，虽伊朗出口仍受限制。墨西哥高硫出口在Olmeca和Tula二次装置投产 背景下稳定低位。需求端，夏季发电需求彻底消退。高硫裂解下行及税改的低成本背景下，进料需求支 撑仍不明显。高硫近端库存高位仍压抑市场价格。高硫近月关注新仓单生成及后续库存消化节奏。 周五夜盘，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，燃料油期货主力合约开盘报2744.00元/吨，盘中低位震 荡运行；截至收盘，燃料油主力最高触及2747.00元，下方探低2712.00元，跌幅达2.50%。 新湖期货分析称，国庆期间，随着欧洲柴油进口量增加，柴油裂解大幅下跌，对低硫支撑减弱。在成品 油出口利润转好的预期下，需留意主营将低硫出口配额转为成品油配额的消息。短期原油端65美元/桶 并未有效跌破，对低硫拖累有限。以色列和哈马斯达成了停战协 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 观点综述 | 月度观点综述 | | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 炼厂开工与产量方面，全球主要产区燃料油产量总体上升，但俄罗斯地区炼厂开工下降明显，其燃料油 | | 产量以及出口数量环比明显下降。需求方面，中东发电需求开始逐步接近尾声，沙特9月燃料油进口数量 | | | 继续下降，而炼化端中国、印度等地的燃料油进口仍然没有明显的增长。 | | | 价格与价差 硫的裂解也相对低硫更强。 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内涨跌互现，各地高硫价格走势明显强于低硫，同时部分地区高 | | 高硫方面，中东出口维持高位，9月内整个亚太区域现货成交相对清淡，成交升贴水呈现低位震荡形态。 | | | 需要注意的是，俄罗斯炼油产能由于乌克兰无人机袭击，目前有20%左右的产能处于下线状态；同时，由 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 201.8 万桶。商业原油库存比去年同期低 0.59%；比过去五年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 低 4%；汽油库存比去年同期高 1.95%；比过去五年同期低 1%；馏 | | | | 分油库存比去年同期高 2.57%，比过去五年同期低 6%。当前在供 | | | | 应增量预期，地缘因素缓和，需求进入淡季的三重考验下，油价 | | | | 整体延续偏弱运行态势。 | | | | 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收跌 1.25%，报 2834 元/ 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2511 收跌 1.23%，报 3360 元/吨。尽 | | | | 管符合规格的含硫 0.5%低硫燃料油的东西方套利窗口在近几周 | | | | 基本处于关闭状态，但用于调和低硫燃料油的组分油总体流入量 | | | 燃料油 | 持续增加。此外，亚洲秋季炼厂检修并未显著收紧当地供应，新 | 震荡 | | | 加坡低硫燃料油市场供应充足。亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构表现坚 | | | | 挺，部分原因在于相对稳定的下游船燃活动，但随着中东地区夏 | | ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 10 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌 | 沪铅 | 郑棉 | | ビー | PVC | 菜粕 | | 棕榈油 | 豆油 | 豆粕 | | 白糖 | 聚丙烯 | 甲醇 | | 沪锡 | 热轧卷板 | 橡胶 | | 沪金 | 鸡蛋 | 玉米 | | 沪铜 | 锰硅 | 沖铝 | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 菜油 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | ...

| 日期 | | 新加坡380cst M1新加坡180cst M1 | | 新加坡 GO M1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 | | ent M1 | O M1 | | 2025/09/25 | 407.32 | 416.26 | 475.67 | 89.89 | -3.83 | -189.52 | | 2025/09/26 | 412.16 | 421.41 | 479.10 | 91.66 | -3.78 | -199.18 | | 2025/09/29 | 409.64 | 418.64 | 477.13 | 90.86 | -3.88 | -195.23 | | 2025/09/30 | 399.48 | 407.91 | 469.01 | 87.92 | -3.36 | -181.60 | | 2025/10/09 | 391.75 | 398.60 | 461.14 | 86.78 | -4.00 | -181.03 | | 变化 | -7.73 | -9.31 | -7.87 | -1.14 | -0.64 ...

俄罗斯的防线在于"能源纵深"。尽管炼油厂受损严重，但原油开采未受重创，每日仍能向中印出口超 300万桶原油，维持基本收入流。国内供暖依赖的天然气产能完好，民众过冬尚无生存之忧，民生压力 远小于乌克兰。但其防空体系的疲态已显露无遗：乌克兰无人机能穿透2100公里防线打击秋明炼油厂， 暴露了俄广袤领土防御的致命漏洞，而无人机的低成本与高频率，正持续消耗俄军昂贵的防空导弹。 这场博弈的关键变量，在于"外部支撑的可持续性"与"内部韧性的临界点"。乌克兰的命门是西方援助 的"断供风险"：欧盟虽承诺长期支持，但匈牙利等国已私下转向土库曼斯坦采购天然气，对乌援助的内 部共识正在松动。俄罗斯的软肋是"炼油修复的技术封锁"：西方制裁导致设备备件断供，受损炼油厂平 均修复周期长达6个月，产能流失可能持续恶化。 从现实困境看，乌克兰的"扛不住"风险更迫在眉睫。其天然气缺口需11月前完成采购，而欧盟援助资金 到位尚需时间；电网设施若再遭两轮大规模袭击，将彻底丧失供暖能力，民众过冬将面临直接生存威 胁。俄罗斯虽面临燃油短缺与财政压力，但民生基本盘未破，原油出口的"现金流"仍能支撑战争消耗。 2025年10月的东欧平原已泛起寒意，乌克兰 ...