Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格波动放大 国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 综述 1 观点 近期国内外燃料油价格波动明显放大，涨跌趋势来回反转。高硫方面，仅从基本面看，中东稳定的高硫出口和船燃淡季将对价格形成利空影响， 但一方面委内瑞拉地区的重油供应仍然没有恢复，同时近期伊朗地区再次浮现地缘 ...

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 月度观点综述 | | --- | CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，前期检修的炼厂继续回归，全球各地炼厂开工率逐步上升到年内高位，全球燃料 | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 油产量因此进一步上升。而在需求方面，船燃市场表现平淡，中东地区发电需求季节性走弱，同时中国、 | | | 印度进料需求仍未见恢复。 | | 价格与价差 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内继续下跌，但高硫弱势有所削减，裂解表现相对强于低硫。月 | | | 差方面，近端现货供应充足甚至趋于过剩的格局仍然压制近月合约估值，导致月差持续处于Contango结构。 | | | 高硫方面，中东地区12月出口数量有所下滑，但产量仍然处于高位，同时从船期数据来看，1月出口仍 | | | 然将大幅上升，亚太地区预计仍 ...

早上好，先来关注下海外市场。 9日晚，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示：美国2025年12月非农就业人数增加5万，预估增加7万，前值增加6.4万；美国2025年12月失业率4.4%，预期 4.5%，前值4.6%。 这份数据对本月底的美联储议息会议几乎没有影响——市场原本就不指望1月会降息。数据公布后，1月降息的概率几乎为零，3月降息的概率跌至30%，4 月降息的概率也跌破50%。 摩根士丹利预计，美联储将在6月和9月各降息25个基点，而此前的预测是今年1月和4月降息。花旗预计美联储将在3月、7月和9月各降息25个基点，而此 前的预测是今年1月、3月和9月降息。 美国非农就业数据公布后，内外盘白银价格大幅拉升，国际油价继续大涨。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | 轻质原油连续 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4513.190 | 80.155 | 59.33 | | +37.590 +0.84% | +3.486 +4.55% | +1.57 +2.72% | | 纽约金主连 | 纽约银主连 | 美原油主连 | | 4524.0 | 79.855 | 59.11 | | +63.3 +1.42% | ...

转自：新华财经 地缘扰动再起，国际油价强势大涨，带动内盘原油系相关品种9日集体走高，其中，低硫燃料油和SC原油主力合约均涨超3%，燃料油主力合约涨超2%。虽 然委内瑞拉事件对原油影响相对较小，但近期伊朗局势动荡，市场担忧可能会阶段性影响原油生产与出口。消息面上，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱 事件发出威胁， 也强化了地缘局势的不确定性。据正信期货分析，地缘多点突发且不确定性加强，委内瑞拉更多以远期过剩计价，而伊朗则更聚焦供应中 断，油价跌至支撑位后再度反弹，短期波动较大。中期来看，该机构指出，原油市场仍聚焦过剩矛盾，首先美国旨在接手委内瑞拉油田来扩大出口，其次不 排除油价上涨后欧佩克继续加速增产，最后俄乌冲突若缓和后的海上高库存问题尚未解决。 政策预期生变多晶硅续跌超8% 沪镍延续调整 在市场监管总局通报多晶硅垄断风险的背景下，市场对多晶硅回到边际成本定价模式的预期升温，这令多晶硅市场近两个交易日情绪急速转弱。在1月8日多 合约跌停之后，9月多晶硅主力合约再度大跌超8%，继续领跌商品市场。在分析机构看来，监管导向的变化使得市场对未来多晶硅产能出清路径的预期从之 前的"产业、组织间协调"，转向"以技术迭代的市 ...

人民财讯1月9日电，国内商品期货收盘，多晶硅主力合约跌超8%，沪镍、BR橡胶跌超2%。钯涨6%， LU燃油、原油涨超3%，燃料油涨超2%。 （原标题：国内商品期货收盘 多晶硅跌超8%） ...

| | | | 1 | | --- | | 15. | | 噪 | | 14 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库格局。从EIA. IEA，OPEC三大机构平衡表预估情况来看，202601全球原油市场 面临较大累库压力。美委局势难为油价反弹提供持续性的基本面支撑，反而美国对委内打击目标在于快速实现 政权更送后接管委内石油资源,若后续制裁放松,外资重新进入委内石油基础设施,则委内石油产量及出口面 临增加可能。综上,油价主基调仍为供需宽松主导的中枢下行趋势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.77 美元至 57.76 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.16%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 2.03 美元至 61.99 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 3.39%。SC2602 以 424.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.58%。美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果伊朗杀死抗议 | | | | 者，将对其进行"沉重"打击。在当前市场预期原油供应将过剩 | | | | 的背景下，伊朗石油供应中断将构成意料之外的障碍。1 月 8 日， | | | 原油 | 伊朗国家媒体报道，总统马苏德·佩泽什基安警告国内供应商不 | 震荡 | | | 要囤积或过高定价商品，德黑兰正在全国范围抗议经济困难期间 | | | | 推行高风险的补贴改革。根据局势的发展，伊朗的石油出口，相 | | | | 当于全球供应的 2%，可能面临风险。伊拉克政府此前发表声明说， | | | ...

加入交易理想国知识星球获取完整版PDF报告及精简版EXCEL 整理 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新年伊始，我们搜集整理了31家机构对于大宗商品市场2026 年的策略展望，从机构一致看多，一致看空，分期显著以及其他中性四个角度，覆盖了有色、 黑色、能源、化工、农产品、软商品等多个商品板块47个交易品种，就2026年大宗商品机会与风险进行分析，希望对大家新一年的交易有所帮助。 本系列分为：一、基本金属篇；二、黑色金属篇；三、能源化工品种篇；四、农产品软商品篇。 本篇为系列第三篇，覆盖能源化工品种。 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（一） 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（二） | | 一致看多品种 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 机构观点高度统一看涨，核心逻辑共振。 | | | 品种 | 代表性机构观点 | 核心逻辑 | | 货(偏多)、中信建投期货(强势偏多)、融达期货(相对乐观)。 PX(对二甲苯) | 明确偏多/强势:紫金天风期货(偏强)、五矿期货(明确偏多)、一德 ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...