Summary of Conference Call on Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market is currently facing challenges due to the implementation of new national standards, which have not been well accepted by consumers. Actual sales figures are significantly lower than those reported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) [1][2] - Dealers are not overly concerned about December sales, as previous quarters showed strong performance, and they are utilizing methods like license plate substitution to stockpile vehicles to circumvent policy restrictions, although this is under strict regulation [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Consumer Demand**: New national standard vehicles do not fully meet consumer needs, particularly regarding commuting convenience. There is an expectation that local governments may relax enforcement of standards to accommodate market demands, similar to previous policy implementations [1][5][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The introduction of industry standards is seen as positive for market health, but some policies are criticized for being overly rigid and not considering the unique needs of smaller enterprises [7][8] - **Sales Forecasts**: Yadea's total shipment for 2025 is projected to be over 16 million units, falling short of the initial target of 17 million units. The overall market for electric two-wheelers in 2025 is expected to be between 16.5 million and 16.8 million units [3][14][15] - **Inventory Management**: Dealers are currently selling old stock as "0 km used cars" at a markup, which is expected to continue until after the Spring Festival. Inventory levels vary significantly by brand and region [10][11] Regulatory Environment - The likelihood of modifying existing national standards is low due to various vested interests. However, local governments may choose to relax certain regulations to maintain public image and address livelihood concerns [6][19] - The strict enforcement of new standards in first- and second-tier cities accounts for only 20% to 30% of the national total, indicating a disparity in regulatory application across regions [12] Future Market Outlook - The first half of 2026 is expected to be challenging for the electric two-wheeler market, with potential declines in total sales by 15% to 30% if national subsidies are not reinstated. The absence of clear guidance on subsidies from the MIIT and the Ministry of Commerce adds to market uncertainty [17][18][20] - Companies are preparing for potential policy changes by stockpiling new standard models that can be modified to meet consumer needs, with expectations for these models to be available by May if regulations are relaxed [19] Additional Insights - The current market is experiencing a significant reshuffle, primarily affecting smaller companies, while larger brands like Yadea maintain a strong market position [8] - The number of companies that have passed the 3C certification is approximately 40 to 50, despite claims of hundreds of models being certified, highlighting a mismatch between official data and market reality [9]