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研报 | 预估2026年全球新能源车销量年增14%,USMCA重启谈判牵动汽车产业关键变量
TrendForce集邦· 2026-03-02 09:01
Core Insights - The article highlights the growth of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, with total sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles reaching 2.053 million units in 2025, marking a 26% year-on-year increase. The forecast for 2026 predicts sales to reach 2.340 million units, with growth slowing to 14% [2]. Market Performance - In 2025, China accounted for approximately 66% of the global EV market, but its growth rate was only 24%, slightly below the average due to a high base effect. In contrast, the Western European market saw nearly 30% growth, the highest since 2022 [2]. - BYD emerged as the top seller of BEVs in 2025 with a market share of 15.6%, surpassing Tesla, which experienced a 9% decline in sales due to a lack of product innovation. SAIC-GM-Wuling maintained third place, while Geely's market share increased from 3% to 6% due to the popularity of its "Xingyuan" model priced below 100,000 RMB [3]. PHEV Sales Insights - In the PHEV segment, BYD led with a market share of approximately 31.5%, although it faced a decline in both sales and market share for the first time. Geely, supported by its Galaxy series, rose to second place with a 6.3% market share. Li Auto, which was second in 2024, saw a 30% decline in sales and dropped to fifth place due to intense market competition and late overseas expansion [5]. Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - TrendForce indicates significant policy changes for EVs in 2026 across major markets: China's subsidies will shift from fixed amounts to a percentage of vehicle prices; the U.S. will no longer provide federal subsidies; and Germany will restart subsidies without production location restrictions, which is expected to benefit Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [6]. - The article also notes that the demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory in electric vehicles is strong due to their high level of intelligence. However, memory costs only account for about 1%-5% of total vehicle material costs, leading manufacturers to prioritize stable supply to maintain new vehicle launch schedules and feature updates [6].