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出口专题:中国份额收缩后,非洲靠什么补位?
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-14 09:38
Group 1: China's Export Share Decline - As of July this year, China's global export share has slightly decreased from 16.1% in 2024 to 15.7%[7] - The total global export volume is approximately $13.58 trillion, with China's exports around $2.13 trillion[7] - The decline in China's export share is primarily driven by a 0.5 percentage point drop in the North American market and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the European market[12] Group 2: Africa's Role in Mitigating China's Export Decline - Africa has compensated for part of China's export share decline, with both Asia and Africa each recovering 0.1 percentage points[13] - From 2018 to July 2025, China's export share to Africa and Latin America has increased by nearly 4 percentage points[16] - Key countries contributing to this growth include Nigeria and Liberia, with a combined increase of 0.27 percentage points in export share[23] Group 3: Export Growth to Africa - In the first three quarters of this year, China's exports to Africa increased by approximately 26%, reaching $163.2 billion, surpassing the total for 2021[21] - The main products exported to Africa include machinery and electrical equipment, metals, textiles, vehicles, and ships, with vehicles and ships showing the fastest growth rates[27] - The share of vehicles in exports to Africa rose from 8% in 2024 to 10% in 2025, with a growth rate of 64%[31] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for growth, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[32]