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成本端走弱、现货大单成交重心下移 汽柴油市场价格中枢易跌难涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 07:15
Group 1 - International crude oil prices have recorded six consecutive declines, reaching the lowest level in nearly eight weeks, influenced by weak demand for gasoline and diesel, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook for domestic gasoline and diesel markets [1][3] - The second batch of Northeast gasoline and diesel collective procurement prices in August saw a decline, with 92 procurement price at 7720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period, and 0 diesel procurement price at 6600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] - Gasoline collective procurement prices remained stable above 7700 yuan/ton in July, but limited demand growth led to fluctuations in August, with prices initially rising before declining [1][3] Group 2 - In the external procurement market, gasoline 92 external procurement price was 7690 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and 0 diesel external procurement price was 6690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2] - The shipping market for gasoline and diesel has seen reduced trading activity, with total gasoline and diesel shipping transactions in Shandong decreasing by 6.2 million tons compared to the previous week, although diesel transactions showed some recovery [2] - The main transaction price range for domestic 92 gasoline shipping is between 7650-7850 yuan/ton, while 0 diesel shipping prices range from 6650-6840 yuan/ton, indicating a general decline in transaction prices [2] Group 3 - The short-term outlook for international crude oil remains weak, with bearish sentiment driven by supply risks diminishing due to upcoming US-Russia negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [3] - Refinery operating rates are slightly declining, but inventory risks are low, with gasoline demand expected to weaken seasonally, while diesel demand remains primarily driven by essential small orders [3] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with speculative demand being limited, and the decline in collective procurement, external procurement, and shipping large order prices contributing to a bearish outlook for gasoline and diesel market prices [3]