Core Viewpoint - The recent commitment from Iran not to execute protesters has led to a significant drop in oil prices, marking the largest decline since June, as the U.S. holds off on military action against Iran [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - WTI crude oil fell by 4.6%, closing at approximately $59.19 per barrel, following a substantial increase of 10% in the previous week [2][3]. - Brent crude oil also experienced a decline of 4.2%, with a settlement price of $63.76 per barrel [4]. Geopolitical Context - Reports indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu requested U.S. President Trump to delay military action against Iran, reducing the likelihood of immediate U.S. intervention regarding Iran's domestic protests [2]. - The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and 18 individuals and entities linked to a shadow banking network, reinforcing market expectations that conflict will not escalate immediately [2].

Group 1 - Russia's crude oil production in December 2025 fell to its lowest level in 18 years, with a daily output of 9.326 million barrels, a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day from November [3] - This production level is nearly 250,000 barrels per day lower than the quota set by the OPEC+ agreement [3] Group 2 - Ukraine launched at least 73 attacks on 28 Russian oil producers in 2025, affecting a total refining capacity of 219 million tons per year, which accounts for two-thirds of Russia's total refining capacity [5] - The significant decline in Russia's refining capacity has forced the country to increase crude oil exports, contributing to a continuous drop in oil prices, with current prices around $33 per barrel [5] Group 3 - As a result of sanctions, Russian oil is piling up on tankers at sea, with buyers reluctant to accept these shipments, leading to export difficulties [7] - By the end of December 2025, over 185 million barrels of Russian crude oil were stranded on tankers, unable to find buyers [8] Group 4 - The control of Venezuelan oil by Trump, aimed at dumping it for market share, poses an indirect blow to Russia [10] - The escalating sanctions, attacks on oil infrastructure by Ukraine, and Trump's strategic moves are expected to significantly risk Russia's energy revenues in 2026, further exacerbating economic risks for the country [10]

Group 1 - European energy stocks declined as Brent crude oil futures fell below $60 per barrel for the first time since May [1] - The Stoxx 600 Energy Index dropped by 1.1%, making it the worst-performing sector within the Stoxx 600 Index, which rose by 0.2% [1] - Siemens Energy performed relatively well, with a slight decline of only 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - The international oil market is currently influenced by negative factors, including increased OPEC+ production and geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale markets are experiencing a continuous decline, with local refineries reducing prices to stimulate sales due to poor market performance [1] - As of December 16, the average reference crude oil price is $59.75 per barrel, with a change rate of -2.05%, indicating a potential domestic price reduction of 115 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the international market suggests a lack of upward momentum for oil prices, as optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine may not significantly impact market dynamics [3] - Gasoline demand remains relatively stable, with some pre-holiday replenishment needs, while diesel demand is weakening due to lower operational rates in outdoor projects and construction [3] - The supply of raw materials for local refineries in Shandong is sufficient, but the decline in costs limits the upward potential for diesel prices, indicating a likely short-term downward trend [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent crude oil prices to be $68.91 per barrel in 2025, up from a previous estimate of $68.76 per barrel, and $55.08 per barrel in 2026, an increase from $54.92 per barrel [1] - EIA anticipates that global oil inventories will continue to grow, exerting significant downward pressure on prices; however, OPEC+ production policies and China's continued stockpiling are expected to help limit price declines in 2026 [1] - The EIA forecasts that OPEC+ production will fall short of planned levels, decreasing by 1.3 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Zhongcai Futures reports a significant downward adjustment in expectations for European refined oil shortages, leading to a decline in crude oil price trends; it predicts that oil prices will maintain a volatile trend amid geopolitical premiums and supply surplus [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in PTA prices is primarily attributed to falling crude oil prices and an ample supply of PTA in the market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - PTA prices have decreased due to a drop in crude oil prices and sufficient PTA spot supply [1] - The OPEC report indicates that oil supply will meet demand by 2026, contributing to the decline in crude prices [1] - Brent crude oil prices have reached a three-week low, further weakening cost support for PTA [1] Group 2: Supply and Production - There are no planned maintenance activities for PTA production facilities, leading to a stable supply [1] - The low processing fees for PTA have not translated into production cuts, indicating a lack of immediate response from producers [1] - Integrated refining enterprises are experiencing comprehensive profitability, which may prevent concentrated maintenance of PTA facilities despite theoretical losses in the PTA segment [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - The short-term forecast suggests a narrow decline in PTA prices [1]

Core Insights - The price of crude oil has fallen below $60 per barrel, benefiting refineries producing diesel and other products [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the key indicator for diesel profit margins has increased by approximately 33% from last year's average, reaching 69 cents per gallon [1] - EIA forecasts that diesel profit margins are expected to rise further to 84 cents per gallon by 2026 [1] - Gasoline profit margins are also projected to improve during the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OPEC+ production increase plans are steadily advancing, with a persistent outlook of oversupply continuing to pressure the oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Plans - OPEC+ has initiated a recovery plan to restore voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in April 2025, with a subsequent joint reduction plan of 1.65 million bpd beginning in October 2025 [1][2]. - In October 2025, OPEC+ announced an increase of 137,000 bpd, with a further increase of the same amount planned for November [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The accelerated pace of production increases, exceeding market expectations, has created a continuous bearish impact on the oil market, with cumulative production plans nearing 2.5 million bpd by September 2025 [2][3]. - The gradual increase in production by OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply-side pressures, leading to potential downward risks for medium to long-term oil prices [2][4]. Group 3: Discrepancies in Production - There is a growing disparity between planned and actual production increases, influenced by compensatory reductions from some oil-producing countries and capacity limitations [4][5]. - The actual production figures have often exceeded target production, leading to increased volatility in the oil market [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global oil market faces risks of sustained oversupply, compounded by weak energy demand and rising production expectations from other oil-producing countries, including the U.S. [5]. - Factors that previously supported oil prices, such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and steady U.S. oil demand, have shifted, leading to bearish influences on the market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillation", with an expected bearish trend as the cost weakens [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and pure benzene and styrene follow the cost down. The supply of styrene increases after the maintenance period ends, while the demand is poor both domestically and overseas. The inventory situation is mixed, and the profit and basis are bearish. The overall market for pure benzene and styrene is under pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. After the maintenance period, styrene supply increases. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene rebounds to $150. Asian producers' economy remains negative. The market has poor expectations for the downstream [4]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Pure benzene has a slight de - stocking. The supply side increases significantly after the maintenance ends, and Yulong Petrochemical's device is about to be put into production. Overseas demand is still declining due to the low operating rate of derivatives [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples is 201,900 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous period, a +2.23% increase. The commercial inventory is 116,400 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous period, an +8.99% increase [4]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis is stable at around 30 - 40. There is an expected inventory build - up for pure benzene and styrene, and the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device will put obvious pressure on the market [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene drops to $150 [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. Styrene device supply is sufficient [4]. - **Macro Policy**: Bearish. On October 9 local time, a US federal judge approved a partial restraining order to temporarily prevent the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard in Illinois [4]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Styrene cost weakens, expected to be mainly bearish [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: Supply increases, and prices continue to decline [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of styrene integrated plants declines. After the festival, the port inventory of styrene rises slightly [15][26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by weak overseas demand, the price of pure benzene runs weakly [38]. 3.3 Part Three: Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The demand for domestic styrene downstream polymers is okay, with stable capacity utilization and production profit [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: Inventory accumulates, and profit declines [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The load decreases, and inventory slightly decreases [74]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The load increases, and the profit slightly rebounds [84]. - **Pure Benzene - Phenol**: The port inventory declines [93]. - **Pure Benzene - Adipic Acid**: Production increases, but profit is difficult to expand [103]. - **Pure Benzene - Caprolactam**: The price drops [114]. - **Appliance**: The year - on - year export demand for household appliances declines [123].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures are running weakly. In the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were lowered by 50. For drawn PP, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 50, while those from PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment in the medium - term and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. With the continuation of China - US game on Friday, crude oil was under pressure, and in the short - term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, with cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7037, 7066, and 7124 respectively, with decreases of - 40, - 40, and - 34 compared to the day before the previous day, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.56%, and - 0.47% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6722, 6762, and 6782 respectively, with decreases of - 23, - 23, and - 25, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.34%, and - 0.37% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 225133, 21799, and 186 respectively, and the open interests were 557868, 53285, and 427 respectively, with increases of 11563, 4180, and 119 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 251636, 14886, and 258 respectively, and the open interests were 634901, 109252, and 2775 respectively, with increases of 11295, 3625, and 170 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 29, - 58, and 87 respectively, compared to previous values of - 29, - 52, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 40, - 20, and 60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 40, - 22, and 62 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2390 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2293 yuan/ton, 6495 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges were 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6550 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7250 - 7650 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6750 yuan/ton [2]. Energy News - Oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since early May, down $2.61 from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.24%, with a trading range of $58.22 - $61.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.73 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $2.49 from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.82%, with a trading range of $62 - $65.36 [2].