格隆汇12月16日｜欧洲能源股走低，因布伦特原油期货价格自5月以来首次跌破每桶60美元。斯托克600 能源指数下跌1.1%，成为斯托克600指数中表现最差的板块；斯托克600指数涨0.2%。西门子能源表现 相对较好，仅下跌0.1%。 ...

来源：中国能源网 受原油收盘价格连续下跌影响，变化率负向开端后持续负向发展，零售价下调预期不断增强。据金联创 测算，截至12月16日第六个工作日，参考原油品种均价为59.75美元/桶，变化率为-2.05%，对应的国内 汽柴油零售价应下调115元/吨。根据"十个工作日"原则，本轮调价窗口为12月22日24时。目前计价周期 过半，本轮零售价调整大概率将迎下调，消息面支撑利空主导。国内市场来看，终端消费及社会贸易商 对后市悲观情绪较重，市场操作以按需采购为主，难以形成有力的需求拉动，市场购销气氛持续低迷。 后市来看，国际市场方面，市场权衡俄罗斯与乌克兰之间达成和平协议的乐观迹象，从而提高了对制裁 可能放松的预期，国际油价反弹动力不足，受此影响变化率或继续负向发展，消息面依旧利空主导为 主。需求面来看，汽油需求面相对平稳，且元旦假期之前，部分业者存一定补货需求，短期内汽油价格 走势将随原油窄幅波动为主；柴油方面，随气温下降，户外工程、基建等用油主力单位开工率下降明 显，柴油需求面支撑持续减弱。加之原油提前批配额下发后，山东地炼原料供应充足，目前受成本面下 降影响，炼厂利润空间尚可，柴油价格走势上行乏力，预计短期内走势 ...

来源：环球网 美国能源部（EIA）短期能源日前发布展望报告显示，预计2025年布伦特原油价格为68.91美元/桶，此 前预计为68.76美元/桶；预计2026年为55.08美元/桶，此前预计为54.92美元/桶。 中财期货则撰文认为，欧洲成品油短缺的预期大幅下调，带动原油价格走势下跌，并预计油价在地缘溢 价与供应过剩背景下维持震荡走势。 塔斯社发文称，EIA还表示，预计全球石油库存将继续增长，这将对价格施加显著的下行压力；并预计 OPEC+的生产政策，加上中国继续积累储备，将有助于限制2026年的价格下跌。此外，该部门预计， OPEC+的产量将低于计划，每天减少130万桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in PTA prices is primarily attributed to falling crude oil prices and an ample supply of PTA in the market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - PTA prices have decreased due to a drop in crude oil prices and sufficient PTA spot supply [1] - The OPEC report indicates that oil supply will meet demand by 2026, contributing to the decline in crude prices [1] - Brent crude oil prices have reached a three-week low, further weakening cost support for PTA [1] Group 2: Supply and Production - There are no planned maintenance activities for PTA production facilities, leading to a stable supply [1] - The low processing fees for PTA have not translated into production cuts, indicating a lack of immediate response from producers [1] - Integrated refining enterprises are experiencing comprehensive profitability, which may prevent concentrated maintenance of PTA facilities despite theoretical losses in the PTA segment [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - The short-term forecast suggests a narrow decline in PTA prices [1]

Core Insights - The price of crude oil has fallen below $60 per barrel, benefiting refineries producing diesel and other products [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the key indicator for diesel profit margins has increased by approximately 33% from last year's average, reaching 69 cents per gallon [1] - EIA forecasts that diesel profit margins are expected to rise further to 84 cents per gallon by 2026 [1] - Gasoline profit margins are also projected to improve during the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OPEC+ production increase plans are steadily advancing, with a persistent outlook of oversupply continuing to pressure the oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Plans - OPEC+ has initiated a recovery plan to restore voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in April 2025, with a subsequent joint reduction plan of 1.65 million bpd beginning in October 2025 [1][2]. - In October 2025, OPEC+ announced an increase of 137,000 bpd, with a further increase of the same amount planned for November [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The accelerated pace of production increases, exceeding market expectations, has created a continuous bearish impact on the oil market, with cumulative production plans nearing 2.5 million bpd by September 2025 [2][3]. - The gradual increase in production by OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply-side pressures, leading to potential downward risks for medium to long-term oil prices [2][4]. Group 3: Discrepancies in Production - There is a growing disparity between planned and actual production increases, influenced by compensatory reductions from some oil-producing countries and capacity limitations [4][5]. - The actual production figures have often exceeded target production, leading to increased volatility in the oil market [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global oil market faces risks of sustained oversupply, compounded by weak energy demand and rising production expectations from other oil-producing countries, including the U.S. [5]. - Factors that previously supported oil prices, such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and steady U.S. oil demand, have shifted, leading to bearish influences on the market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillation", with an expected bearish trend as the cost weakens [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and pure benzene and styrene follow the cost down. The supply of styrene increases after the maintenance period ends, while the demand is poor both domestically and overseas. The inventory situation is mixed, and the profit and basis are bearish. The overall market for pure benzene and styrene is under pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. After the maintenance period, styrene supply increases. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene rebounds to $150. Asian producers' economy remains negative. The market has poor expectations for the downstream [4]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Pure benzene has a slight de - stocking. The supply side increases significantly after the maintenance ends, and Yulong Petrochemical's device is about to be put into production. Overseas demand is still declining due to the low operating rate of derivatives [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples is 201,900 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous period, a +2.23% increase. The commercial inventory is 116,400 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous period, an +8.99% increase [4]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis is stable at around 30 - 40. There is an expected inventory build - up for pure benzene and styrene, and the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device will put obvious pressure on the market [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $270/ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene drops to $150 [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. Styrene device supply is sufficient [4]. - **Macro Policy**: Bearish. On October 9 local time, a US federal judge approved a partial restraining order to temporarily prevent the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard in Illinois [4]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Styrene cost weakens, expected to be mainly bearish [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: Supply increases, and prices continue to decline [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of styrene integrated plants declines. After the festival, the port inventory of styrene rises slightly [15][26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by weak overseas demand, the price of pure benzene runs weakly [38]. 3.3 Part Three: Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The demand for domestic styrene downstream polymers is okay, with stable capacity utilization and production profit [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: Inventory accumulates, and profit declines [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The load decreases, and inventory slightly decreases [74]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The load increases, and the profit slightly rebounds [84]. - **Pure Benzene - Phenol**: The port inventory declines [93]. - **Pure Benzene - Adipic Acid**: Production increases, but profit is difficult to expand [103]. - **Pure Benzene - Caprolactam**: The price drops [114]. - **Appliance**: The year - on - year export demand for household appliances declines [123].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures are running weakly. In the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were lowered by 50. For drawn PP, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 50, while those from PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment in the medium - term and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. With the continuation of China - US game on Friday, crude oil was under pressure, and in the short - term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, with cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7037, 7066, and 7124 respectively, with decreases of - 40, - 40, and - 34 compared to the day before the previous day, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.56%, and - 0.47% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6722, 6762, and 6782 respectively, with decreases of - 23, - 23, and - 25, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.34%, and - 0.37% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 225133, 21799, and 186 respectively, and the open interests were 557868, 53285, and 427 respectively, with increases of 11563, 4180, and 119 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 251636, 14886, and 258 respectively, and the open interests were 634901, 109252, and 2775 respectively, with increases of 11295, 3625, and 170 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 29, - 58, and 87 respectively, compared to previous values of - 29, - 52, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 40, - 20, and 60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 40, - 22, and 62 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2390 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2293 yuan/ton, 6495 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges were 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6550 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7250 - 7650 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6750 yuan/ton [2]. Energy News - Oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since early May, down $2.61 from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.24%, with a trading range of $58.22 - $61.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.73 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $2.49 from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.82%, with a trading range of $62 - $65.36 [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Siam Cement Group's subsidiary, Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP), has restarted its petrochemical complex in Ho Chi Minh City after a year of shutdown, coinciding with a decline in crude oil prices that has reduced operational costs [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Long Son Petrochemicals is undertaking a $500 million renovation project expected to be completed by 2027 [1] - The total investment for the complex amounts to $5 billion, which began construction in 2018 and was scheduled to commence commercial operations in September 2024 [1] - The complex has an annual production capacity of 1.4 million tons of olefin resins, supplying raw materials for various industries including packaging, agriculture, electronics, and automotive [1] Group 2: Market Context - The restart of the complex is seen as an opportunity due to the drop in crude oil prices, which has allowed for a more favorable operational environment [1] - The initial production was halted just one month after launch due to rising costs and unprofitability [1]