核聚变核心部件(真空室等)
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合锻智能(603011)深度研究报告:高端成形机床龙头 卡位核聚变核心部件 远期弹性可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 08:29
Core Viewpoint - The company, focusing on high-end forming machine tools and intelligent sorting equipment, is expanding into the core equipment field of nuclear fusion, with a projected revenue of 1.67 billion yuan and a net loss of 40 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is expected to enter a capital expenditure expansion cycle from 2025 to 2028, potentially driving a surge in orders across the supply chain [1] - The global energy system may be restructured as controllable nuclear fusion emerges as a potential ultimate energy source, with intensified competition between China and the U.S. in this field [1] - Major domestic nuclear fusion projects are projected to require an investment of approximately 146 billion yuan over the next 3 to 5 years, with significant capital expenditures anticipated [1] Group 2: Company Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in the nuclear fusion sector, positioning itself in high-value components of fusion reactors, with future orders expected to be flexible [2] - The company has secured a contract for the BEST vacuum chamber project, with a total bid amount of 209 million yuan, establishing a strong technical barrier and first-mover advantage [2] - Collaborations with research institutions like Hefei Energy Research Institute enhance the company's foundational research capabilities [2] Group 3: Traditional Business Performance - The company is recognized as a champion in high-end forming machine tools, with rapid order growth and a strong market position [3] - In the intelligent sorting equipment sector, the company holds a market share of approximately 14%, ranking second in the domestic market, with a CR3 of about 42% [3] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of -22 million yuan in 2025, followed by 133 million yuan in 2026 and 220 million yuan in 2027, suggesting a potential turnaround [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a key player in the nuclear fusion supply chain, having won the BEST vacuum chamber project bid, indicating potential for significant performance growth in the next 3 to 5 years [3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 92 times for 2026, higher than the average PE of 83 times for key companies in the nuclear fusion industry [3] - The company is recommended for investment due to its strategic positioning and expected performance growth amid rising capital expenditures in the industry [3]