Core Viewpoint - The current futures market shows a significant increase in the holding scale of the main 01 contract and the secondary 05 contract for red dates, indicating an escalation in market competition and a shift in expectations regarding supply and demand dynamics [5][7][17]. Futures Market Dynamics - The holding scale of the red date futures contracts has surpassed the total production of gray dates in recent years, reflecting a market that is heavily influenced by historical production seasons [5][7]. - The pessimistic expectations for the traditional peak season 01 contract are driven by the rapid decline in purchase prices after a brief increase in late October, suggesting potential sales losses for industries purchasing new dates [5][6][17]. - Historical data indicates that the nature of red date seasons is distinct, with the 01 contract only falling below the 05 contract during the chaotic sales period at the end of 2022 due to pandemic control measures [5][17]. Price and Inventory Analysis - The current purchase prices in Xinjiang have slightly increased compared to the same period in 2021, but the market remains in a phase of negotiation, with industries lacking the ability to pass high prices onto end consumers [6][17]. - The presence of past production seasons' inventory in the market may suppress consumption while indicating that current market price expectations are too high [17]. - The analysis suggests that if the current production season does not show significant reductions, industries will not rush to purchase, and farmers' reluctance to sell at lower prices will further complicate the market [17]. Market Strategy Recommendations - Despite the intense market competition, maintaining a long position in the peak season 01 contract is viewed as having a high cost-performance ratio, while short positions in the 05 contract should wait for clearer pricing signals from major sales regions like Hebei [6][17]. - The report emphasizes that the traditional peak season's pricing dynamics will likely influence the performance of the off-peak season, making it challenging to establish a successful inverse spread strategy between the 01 and 05 contracts [17].