焦煤 JM2601

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期货技术分析周报:2025年第31周-20250803
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 15:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina showing a bearish signal and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline. The Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [1][10][14]. - The overall technical rating of the black sector is stable, with rebar turning bearish. Coking coal and coke are in an adjustment period after a sharp rise last week, showing a bearish signal next week. The coking coal JM2601 is at risk of a short - term decline [2][26][30]. - In the energy - chemical sector, asphalt is bullish, crude oil and fuel oil are volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG are bearish. The glass, caustic soda, and soda ash in the chemical sector are mainly volatile, and the glass FG509 is at risk of a short - term decline [3][35][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil is strongly bullish, and soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs are cautiously bullish. Sugar and live pigs are bearish, and the sugar SR509 is at risk of a short - term decline [4][44][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina turning bearish and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline, and the Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [10][11][14]. 1.2 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Tin, lithium carbonate, and nickel have the largest fluctuation space, especially lithium carbonate S2 has a 7.4% jump compared to S3, so short - term fluctuation risks need to be noted. The pivot points of copper, aluminum, and zinc are concentrated, and there is strong resistance in the R2 - R3 of international copper. Alumina, lead, and stainless steel have the weakest fluctuations. Polysilicon/industrial silicon shows non - continuous price jumps, and tin and lithium carbonate have significant breakthrough opportunities, so position management is necessary [23]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The overall signal indicator rating of the black sector is relatively stable. Rebar has turned into a bearish signal. Coking coal and coke were mainly in a volatile adjustment this week after a sharp rise last week, and the technical indicator signal is bearish next week [26][27]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Iron ore and European line container shipping had the smallest fluctuations this week. Coking coal and coke showed a stepped jump. Manganese silicon/silicon iron had the highest absolute price and dense resistance levels. The technical structure of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar but at a higher price level. The resistance interval from the pivot point to R1 of wire rods jumped by 152 yuan. The R3 resistance of coke is close to the R2 of coking coal, and the prices of the two are strongly correlated. Overall, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and coke have greater breakthrough potential, while iron ore and European line container shipping have limited fluctuation space [33]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy - chemical sector, except for asphalt showing a bullish technical indicator signal, crude oil and fuel oil have turned volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG have turned bearish. The chemical sector is mainly divided into volatile and bearish parts, with glass, caustic soda, and soda ash being mainly volatile [35][36]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Crude oil had low volatility this week. The support and resistance intervals of soda ash, glass, and urea are narrow. Para - xylene, plastics, and styrene have high prices and significant fluctuations. PVC shows a jump - up structure. Natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have dense resistance levels [40][42]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - According to the technical indicator signal summary, soybean oil, soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, among which soybean oil shows a strong bullish signal, and the others are cautiously bullish signals. Sugar and live pigs show bearish technical indicator signals [44][46]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The live pig has the most dramatic fluctuations in the support and resistance intervals (the S3 - R3 span is 2264 yuan). There are short - term interval operation opportunities in the volatile market, but position management needs to be cautious. The technical structures of soybean varieties are dense (the R3 - S3 of soybean meal is only 297 yuan), and the interval operation space is small. Corn and its by - products have the weakest fluctuations, so position management is necessary [52].