周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 48 周 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 23 日 ★商品期货 期货市场各板块整体承压，看跌情绪占据主导。有色板块中， 仅多晶硅呈现看涨信号，铜、铅、镍等多数品种看跌，其中 铝、碳酸锂、氧化铝为强烈看跌；碳酸锂主力合约虽周内震 荡上涨，但周五大幅回调并出现"倒锤子线"弱势反转形 态，预计下周将面临回调风险，需关注 89000-90000 元/吨附 近波动。黑色及航运板块多数品种震荡，但焦煤、焦炭及欧 线集运看跌；螺纹钢主力价格虽周初上涨，但随后连续回落， 目前运行于布林带中轨下方，短期面临回调压力，支撑区间 看 2950-3000 元/吨。能化板块中，低硫燃料油、沥青、LPG 及纯苯、塑料、尿素等多个化工品显示看跌或强烈看跌信号； PTA 整体震荡，重心持平，预计下周震荡偏弱，支撑区间在 4380-4430 元/吨。农产品板块以震荡为主，其中油菜籽和玉 米淀粉看涨，而棕榈油、豆二、豆粕及鸡蛋看跌；白糖主力 本周价格创新低，但日线显示连续下跌后有一定反弹压力， 上方阻力区间在 5500-5530 元/吨。 ★金融期货 国内股指期货市场整体承压，除中证 ...

周度报告——风险管理 根据技术分析，近期商品市场各板块呈现分化格局。贵金属 整体震荡，而有色板块中铅、不锈钢等多品种显示看跌信号， 但碳酸锂逆势周线上涨，稳居 MA60 均线之上，虽在 90000 元/吨关键位面临多头平仓压力，持仓稳定预示趋势未完全 反转，短期预期围绕 MA60 宽幅震荡。技术分析显示黑色系 中铁矿石、焦煤等看跌，但螺纹钢在低位获得支撑后技术指 标显露反弹动能，价格重返 3050-3070 元/吨支撑区间，需关 注其能否有效企稳。能源化工板块技术分析评级内部分化， 原油、短纤等看涨，PTA 虽周线上行但迫近 MA60 与下降通 道上轨双重阻力，上涨动力受限，下周预计震荡。根据农技 术分析，农产品中豆粕强势突破 MA60 均线，技术形态转多， 然而上方卖压仍存，续涨动力待观察。整体市场震荡为主， 趋势性行情不明，投资者需紧盯关键技术与仓位管理。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，股指期货市场整体承压，上证 50 期货显示看跌信号，而沪深 300、中证 500 及中证 1000 期 货均呈现强烈看跌信号。其中，IC 中证 500 期货周线进入震 荡整理，布林带带宽停止扩张，MACD 柱收缩， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on technical analysis, the precious metals sector is predominantly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper are bearish, and the rest of the varieties are oscillating. Lithium carbonate shows a bullish "hammer line" pattern on the weekly chart, with short - term rebound potential, expected to fluctuate between 71,300 - 76,800 yuan/ton [1]. - Technical analysis indicates that coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and European line container shipping show bearish signals, while the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating. Rebar dropped 2.32% this week, but there is potential for a technical rebound in the 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton range [2]. - In the energy - chemical sector, low - sulfur fuel oil and urea are technically bullish, while asphalt, PVC, and caustic soda show bearish signals, and the rest are oscillating. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4,380 - 4,430 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, sugar is bullish, rapeseed and red dates are bearish, and the rest are oscillating. Soybean meal is expected to trade in the 3,065 - 3,070 yuan/ton range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The precious metals sector is mainly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [10][11]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - High - volatility varieties such as tin, nickel, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have wide price ranges for support and resistance levels, with prominent trading risks. Low - volatility varieties such as aluminum, lead, alumina, stainless steel, and gold are suitable for range - bound operations [17]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Coking coal, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals; European line container shipping mainly shows bearish signals, and the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating [21][22]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and iron ore are suitable for range - bound operations. High - volatility varieties such as coking coal, coke, and European line container shipping should be traded in the direction of the trend with strict stop - losses [29]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Signal Summary - In the energy sector, low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bullish signal, and asphalt shows a bearish signal, with the rest oscillating. In the chemical sector, urea shows a bullish signal, and PVC and caustic soda show bearish signals, with the rest oscillating [33][34]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt may be in a sideways consolidation state. High - volatility varieties such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and staple fiber require attention to price volatility risks and setting active stop - loss strategies [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Sugar in the agricultural products sector shows a bullish signal, rapeseed and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [45][47]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as soybeans, corn, and corn starch are in a low - volatility oscillating consolidation pattern. Medium - volatility varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and sugar have a certain price swing space. High - volatility varieties such as oils, live pigs, and apples have potential price volatility risks and opportunities [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The technical signals of various futures sectors are diverse. In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, gold shows a bullish signal, while some non - ferrous metals like lithium carbonate and copper show bearish signals. In the black and shipping sector, the trends of black - series products are divided, with rebar having a short - term callback risk. In the energy and chemical sector, the signals are also mixed, with LPG and some chemical products showing bullish signals. In the agricultural products sector, most products show bullish signals, except for palm oil [1][2][3][4]. - For each specific variety, pay attention to price fluctuations near key technical levels and pivot points, and manage positions carefully [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Precious metals: Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver oscillates. Non - ferrous metals: Polysilicon and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lithium carbonate, alumina, and copper show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [11][12]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of copper is 85797 - 87530 yuan/ton, with core support at 83686 - 85377 yuan/ton and main resistance at 87907 - 89683 yuan/ton. The support and resistance intervals of non - ferrous metals such as aluminum and zinc are relatively concentrated, while the fluctuation intervals of tin and nickel are larger. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and polysilicon have higher price levels [24]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Rebar shows a bullish signal, manganese silicon shows a bearish signal, and European line shipping shows a bearish signal. Other black - series products oscillate [29][30]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of rebar is 3024 - 3086 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3207 - 3272 yuan/ton. The pivot point of iron ore is 763 - 779 yuan/ton, and that of coke is 1719 - 1754 yuan/ton. The pivot point of European line shipping is 5458 - 5568 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [37]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy and Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest oscillate. In the chemical sector, PTA, p - xylene, and bottle chips show bullish signals, while PVC, propylene, and rubber - related products show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [41][42][43]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of crude oil is 451 - 461 yuan/barrel. Among chemical products, the pivot point of p - xylene is 6391 - 6520 yuan/ton, significantly higher than others. Aromatic - series products such as pure benzene and styrene are at relatively high levels. The technical positions of polyethylene and polypropylene in the polyolefin sector are relatively close. The technical levels of methanol are highly concentrated, indicating consistent market expectations, while the technical intervals of urea and natural rubber have a large span, indicating high potential volatility [49]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sugar, cotton, and other products show bullish signals, while palm oil shows a bearish signal, and the rest oscillate [52][53]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot points of soybeans and soybean meal are in the middle range. The pivot point of palm oil is 9111 - 9295 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil is 9697 - 9893 yuan/ton, showing strong performance. The technical position of sugar is concentrated in the 5311 - 5560 yuan/ton range, with a relatively convergent fluctuation interval. The pivot points of cotton and cotton yarn show an upward trend. The technical position of pigs has a large span, indicating significant market divergence [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows significant differentiation across various sectors. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has a mixed situation, with precious metals showing callback risks and some non - ferrous metals having bullish signals. The black and shipping sector has some products with bearish signals and others in a volatile state. The energy and chemical sector is generally strong, but also has internal differentiation. The agricultural products sector is also divided, with some products bullish, some volatile, and some bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Precious metals like gold and silver show callback risks, while non - ferrous metals such as cast aluminum alloy, copper, nickel, and stainless steel show bullish signals. Most other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state. Lithium carbonate LC2601 has been rising this week, with support from the MA60 moving average, but some indicators are overbought [9][10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong, with prices of some bullish products approaching the resistance level R1, and attention should be paid to R2 and R3. Precious metals like gold and silver have a callback trend, and attention should be paid to the support at S1 and S2 [16]. 3.2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rebar and iron ore show bearish signals, the European line shows a bearish signal, shipping is mainly in a volatile state, and other products are also volatile [18][19]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Iron ore is bearish, with prices approaching the key support levels S1 and S2. If there is heavy - volume decline, it may fall to S3. Most other products such as hot - rolled coils, wires, and coking coal are in a volatile state, and the European line shipping is also volatile with intense long - short competition [25]. 3.3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Energy products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile signal. Chemical products such as PTA, p - xylene, etc. show bullish signals, while methanol, PVC, etc. show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile [29][30][31]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The energy sector is strong, with prices of some products breaking through the pivot point and approaching R1, and the upside space can reach R2. The chemical sector is internally differentiated, with some products bullish and some bearish, and overall, attention should be paid to price fluctuations around the pivot point [35]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton yarn, and eggs show bullish signals, rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile. Soybean meal M2601 rose slightly this week, and if it breaks through the MA60 moving average with heavy volume, there may be a rebound trend [40][42][45]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Products with bullish ratings are above the pivot point and testing the R1 resistance. Most other products are in a volatile pattern, and rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates are under pressure below the pivot point and testing the S1 support [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it presents investment outlooks for different sectors: - **Bullish**: Precious metals, copper, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coke, European Line Container Shipping, cotton yarn, soybeans, and cotton [1][2][4] - **Bearish**: Zinc, lead, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, methanol, PTA, PVC, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, sugar, and corn [1][2][3][4] - **Sideways**: Aluminum, tin, nickel, hot-rolled coil, and soybean meal [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints The report uses technical analysis to evaluate the futures market trends for the 43rd week of 2025. It indicates that different sectors show varying trends, with some sectors being bullish, some bearish, and others sideways. The report suggests investors seize opportunities in bullish sectors, conduct range trading in sideways sectors, and avoid the downside risks in bearish sectors [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Precious metals are bullish across the board. Among non-ferrous metals, copper, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon are bullish, while lead, industrial silicon, and zinc are bearish. The rest are sideways [10][11] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Precious metals, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are likely to break through resistance levels, while zinc, lead, and industrial silicon may fall below support levels. The report recommends a differentiated strategy [17] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Coke and European Line Container Shipping are bullish, while rebar, iron ore, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bearish. The rest are sideways [19][20] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: European Line Container Shipping and coke show upward momentum, while most black commodities are bearish. Hot-rolled coil and wire rod are expected to trade sideways around pivot points [27] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG are bearish, as are most chemical products such as methanol, PTA, and PVC. Some are sideways [31][32] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, methanol, PTA, and PVC are under pressure to fall below support levels. Low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and p-xylene are in a tug-of-war around pivot points [39] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signals**: Cotton yarn, soybeans, cotton, apples, jujubes, peanuts, and logs are bullish. Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, sugar, and corn are bearish. The rest are sideways [44][45][46] - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Cotton yarn, soybeans, and cotton are likely to continue rising, while corn and corn starch may fall below support levels. Soybean meal and other sideways commodities are expected to trade within a range [50][54]

生猪空头占优 最近，鸡蛋加权价格在前低附近止跌反弹。相较8月的放量增仓下跌，9月成交量和持仓量从高位持续下降，说明中长期做空资金已逐步离场，短期资金观望 情绪增强。5日、10日、20日均线形成死叉后向下运行，短期对价格存在一定压制。MACD在零轴下方横向运行，绿柱持稳，空头打压力量有限。KDJ再次 黏合，有望形成金叉。综合来看，鸡蛋下跌趋势已经弱化，激进者可背靠前低短线操作。 （福能期货张煜） （文章来源：期货日报） 生猪加权在上周低开低走，再创上市以来新低。本周持仓量创出历史新高，成交较为活跃，价格有所止跌。这说明多空争夺激烈，但整体依旧是空头占据主 导地位。均线系统呈现空头排列，中长期下降趋势未改。MACD在零轴下方运行，绿柱小幅缩短。KDJ在超卖区间反复缠绕，但并未给出做多信号。综合来 看，生猪跌势未止，维持空头思路。 鸡蛋二次探底 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Technical indicators show various signals for different commodity sectors. In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, gold shows a bearish signal, silver is mainly oscillating, aluminum alloy is bullish, and nickel, polysilicon, and stainless steel are bearish. In the black and shipping sector, wire rods and European line container shipping are strong, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, and manganese silicon show bearish signals. In the energy and chemical sector, most energy products show bearish signals except asphalt, and methanol is bullish while PTA, plastics, etc. are bearish. In the agricultural products sector, rapeseed, apples, etc. are bullish, and rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, etc. are bearish [1][2][3][4]. - Attention should be paid to price breakthroughs near pivot points and position management in each sector [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 3.1.1 Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver is mainly oscillating. Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum alloy shows a bullish signal, while nickel, polysilicon, and stainless steel show bearish signals, and the rest are mainly oscillating [11][12]. - Lithium carbonate LC2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,300 - 76,800 yuan/ton, oscillating around the MA60 moving average [13]. 3.1.2 Weekly Pivot Analysis - Copper and aluminum are mainly oscillating. Copper has strong resistance near R3, and the core support of copper price fluctuates in the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton. Aluminum also has strong resistance near R3. Gold and silver maintain an upward trend, but gold is oscillating at a high level, and silver is approaching the overbought area, so attention should be paid to resistance breakthroughs [18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector 3.2.1 Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Wire rods and European line container shipping show bullish signals, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, and manganese silicon show bearish signals, and the rest are mainly oscillating. Rebar is currently restricted by weak trading volume and open interest, and the upward repair space is limited, with the key resistance near the MA60 moving average [20][21][24]. 3.2.2 Weekly Pivot Analysis - Rebar and hot - rolled coils show an oscillating feature, and the market may be in a short - term technical balance. Iron ore shows narrow - range fluctuations. Coking coal and coke have high volatility, and attention should be paid to price breakthroughs near pivot points [26]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector 3.3.1 Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy sector, most products show bearish signals except asphalt. In the chemical sector, methanol shows a bullish signal, while PTA, plastics, PVC, etc. show bearish signals [30][31][32]. - PTA2601 is mainly oscillating. If the price breaks down, the secondary support is near 4,380 - 4,430 yuan/ton; if the breakdown fails, the upper pressure range is 4,940 - 5,010 yuan/ton [34]. 3.3.2 Weekly Pivot Analysis - Crude oil has high volatility and shows a wide - range oscillating pattern. PTA, styrene, etc. have high price elasticity, and plastics and other chemical products are in a stable state recently. Attention should be paid to price breakthroughs near pivot points [37]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector 3.4.1 Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Rapeseed, apples, jujubes, and peanuts show bullish signals, while rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and eggs show bearish signals, and the rest are mainly oscillating. The M2601 contract of soybean meal is mainly oscillating this week, with the center of gravity moving down by about 100 yuan/ton, and the short - term support range is 2,920 - 3,050 yuan/ton [42][43][44][47]. 3.4.2 Weekly Pivot Analysis - Soybean No.1, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, etc. show narrow - range consolidation. Soybean oil, palm oil, etc. have high price volatility. Pigs and apples show medium - wide pivot oscillating intervals, and attention should be paid to price breakthroughs near pivot points [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Most short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have gained significant profits after nearly two months. Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation - The short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have been held for nearly two months with large profit margins. It is suggested to gradually reduce positions before the National Day holiday and only keep part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the $60 support during the holiday, short - term acceleration space is large [1][2] 2. Individual Varieties (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and seasonal decline in US demand, the probability of oversupply in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on oversupply should be maintained without over - emphasizing short - term positive factors [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 485. The hourly cycle turned bullish again, with the short - term support at 482. There are two strategies: stop - loss of short positions at the hourly level or widen the stop - loss to the upper limit of the daily - level oscillation at 500 [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decline in supply due to device maintenance, high production and inventory levels remain. New device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure, so the bearish view remains [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today and closed above the short - term pressure at 6935, but the rebound was weak. Half of the short positions should be taken profit [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventory reduction is slow, and there is pressure from falling crude oil prices and synthetic rubber substitution. The demand side is mixed, with semi - steel tire开工 falling and full - steel tire开工 remaining high. The fundamentals are neutral [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 16000. Short positions should be held [12][13] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand situation of synthetic rubber has no major contradictions. The supply side has seen an increase in production after device maintenance. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with port inventory increasing and supply pressure expected to rise. The cost side is bearish [14][17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 11730. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 11730 [17] (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and high production. The short - term supply - demand has weakened slightly, mainly driven by crude oil costs [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 6655. The remaining short positions should be stopped - loss [21] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and PTA has a high probability of inventory accumulation due to high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 4620. The remaining short positions should be taken profit [22] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved slightly during the peak season, but the supply pressure has increased due to new device production. Be cautious about short - selling after the price decline, and pay attention to the cost - collapse logic caused by falling crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 6935. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [24] (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak current and strong expectation continues. The domestic production is still high, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Although there is a potential for improvement in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, so it is not recommended to buy on the left side. The downward trend since August has not ended [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 2375. The remaining short positions should be held cautiously, and the take - profit can be set at 2375 [28] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to new device production, and the demand is weak both domestically and overseas. The inventory has reached a historical high, and the pressure remains [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4980 and the 15 - minute pressure at 4930. Short positions on the 15 - minute cycle can be held, with the stop - loss at 4945 [32] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure from new device production and the impact of falling crude oil prices [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4275. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 4275 [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure has increased due to new device production, and the demand improvement during the peak season is limited. The supply - demand situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - driven impact of falling crude oil prices [37] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 7205. The remaining short positions should be held [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the high - production and high - inventory situation has not improved [41] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 1321. The remaining short positions should be held [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is abundant, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has limited improvement. The inventory has increased again, and the short - term fundamentals have weakened. Attention should be paid to the demand improvement during the peak season and device maintenance in the medium term [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure difficult to determine, and the 15 - minute pressure at 2575. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [44]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report - Risk Management: Futures Technical Analysis Weekly Report (Week 36, 2025) - Report Date: September 7, 2025 Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific technical analysis and signal summaries for different sectors, which can be used to infer potential investment trends for each sector. Core Views - Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends. Some sectors have clear bullish signals, while others are in a state of oscillation. The volatility of each sector and variety also varies significantly, with some showing high volatility and others more stable [1][2][3][4]. Sector Summaries 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, nickel, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon show bullish signals, while most precious metals are in an oscillating state. Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver is oscillating. For example, aluminum, tin, and nickel have strong bullish signals [10][11]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Copper (CU2510)**: The adjustment is not over yet. Although the moving average shows a bullish arrangement and the risk of decline is weak, it is necessary to wait for price signals. The price has the potential to break through, but it needs volume - price driving signals [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The downward momentum has weakened, and it has temporarily found support at the MA60 moving average. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a callback, especially the support effectiveness in the range of 66,800 - 69,600 [17]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: New energy and high - tech metals represented by lithium carbonate and polycrystalline silicon have a wide price fluctuation range, indicating high market volatility. Traditional industrial metals and precious metals have relatively more stable price trends [21]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector mainly has bullish and oscillating signals. Rebar, wire rod, iron ore, coking coal, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, while other black varieties are oscillating. The European line shipping shows a bullish signal [26][27]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price has been oscillating and falling this week, but the support around 3,050 - 3,070 yuan/ton is effective. The MACD shows a potential golden cross. If the price breaks below this range, it may fall to the 2,950 - 3,000 range [30]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and European line shipping have a wide range of support and resistance levels, indicating high market volatility. Rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have relatively more stable price trends [35]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The energy sector is in an oscillating state. In the chemical sector, glass, methanol, synthetic rubber, and pure benzene show bullish signals, while other varieties are oscillating [37][38][39]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The downward trend has stabilized, but it needs volume - price signals to confirm a rebound. The short - term support range of 1,230 - 1,250 yuan/ton is effective [43]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Paraxylene (PX), styrene, short - fiber, and bottle chips have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Crude oil, methanol, and other varieties have relatively more stable price trends [45]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil, peanuts, rapeseed oil, and the corn series show bullish signals. Eggs have changed from a bullish to a bearish signal, and cotton shows a bearish signal. Other varieties are oscillating [50][51][52]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price has shown signs of stabilizing in the range of 2,980 - 3,020 yuan/ton, and the MA60 moving average provides effective support. However, it needs increased volume to confirm bullish momentum [56]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, cotton, and other varieties have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Corn, corn starch, and logs have relatively more stable price trends [59].