周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 9 周 报告日期： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金看跌，白 银震荡；有色板块锌、镍、工业硅、铝合金看涨，多晶硅看 跌，其余震荡；黑色及航运板块锰硅、硅铁、线材看涨，欧 线集运震荡；能源板块整体看涨；化工板块丙烯、玻璃、纯 碱看涨，纸浆、短纤看跌，其余震荡；农产品板块豆油、白 糖、原木、豆粕、油菜籽、菜籽油、玉米、鸡蛋看涨，其余 震荡。具体品种方面，沪铜主力回踩 MA10 获支撑，价格重 心持稳，MACD 金叉延续但成交量未放量，预计短期易涨难 跌，关注 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨逢低建仓机会，需严控仓位。 螺纹钢主力日线修复下跌压力，但均线未转多头，预期下周 震荡修复，下方支撑 3000 至 3040 元/吨。PTA 主力周线受 MA250 压制，日线延续 5000 至 5400 元/吨区间震荡，波动率 下降，短期缺乏趋势信号。玉米主力周线站稳 MA120，中期 看涨但上涨动能减弱，日线仍有上行空间但冲高回落风险加 大，上方阻力 2380 至 2420 元/吨，支撑 2220 至 2250 元/ ...

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 8 周 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 24 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金和白银以 震荡为主。有色板块中，镍和氧化铝显示看涨信号，多晶硅 和铝合金看跌，其余品种震荡。沪铜主力节前周线收近似十 字星，底部支撑仍存，但短期震荡，建议关注节后价格波动， 可在 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨区间逢低建仓。黑色板块热卷、铁 矿石、硅铁、焦煤看跌，欧线集运及剩余品种震荡；螺纹钢 短期震荡偏弱，日线空头排列，关注 3000-3040 元/吨支撑。 能源板块燃料油和低硫燃料油看涨，其余震荡。化工板块尿 素、烧碱、纯苯看涨，甲醇、苯乙烯、乙二醇看跌，其余品 种震荡；PTA 周线维持 5000-5400 元/吨震荡区间，短期震荡 为主。农产品板块玉米淀粉、鸡蛋、豆一、菜籽粕、玉米、 苹果、红枣看涨，棕榈油看跌，其余震荡；玉米主力短期震 荡，日线反弹但面临周线压力，支撑位 2220-2250 元/吨，压 力位关注周度 MA120。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，股指期货方面，中证 500（IC） 显示看涨信号，但短期以震荡为主。周线 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月12日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24520，基差-65；中性。 3、库存：2月11日LME锌库存较上日减少1500吨至105250吨，2月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加8100吨至42335吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a strong bullish pattern, with a tight balance between supply and demand. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate, and the industrial silicon market is expected to be weak with oscillations [1][6][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price opened significantly higher and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract rose 3.07% to 137,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: The demand side may see a surge in export orders due to the reduction of lithium battery export tax rebates, and the production schedule of the materials sector in March has a year - on - year growth rate generally greater than 50%. The supply side will see a record - high import volume in March in China corresponding to the large increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January, but this is a temporary increase. The weekly production this week decreased by 825 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,019 tons compared to last week. The tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a green line, red band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 148,100 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Based on the judgment of the lithium carbonate price's strong oscillation, one can lightly buy when the price drops to 130,000 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to market dynamics and set stop - loss points. For intraday trading, use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points [2] - **Concerns**: Whether there is regulatory upgrade, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production schedule on the demand side [3] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly. The main 2605 contract rose 0.17% to 49,370 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [6] - **Core Logic**: The trading volume is light, lacking upward and downward drivers. It is expected to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Affected by the shutdown of leading enterprises, the polysilicon production schedule in February 2026 was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased slightly, and the market orders were limited. The current production is insufficient to cover short - term shipments, leading to an increase in inventory. The spot price weakened slightly, with the N - type re - feed material quoted at 48.2 - 59 yuan/kg [6][9] - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a strong red ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 47,050 yuan/ton [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may continue to oscillate in the range of (48,000, 51,000). Pay attention to the latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream and whether trading restrictions can be gradually lifted [9] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract fell 0.59% to 8,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [15] - **Core Logic**: In the past three days, the industrial silicon has continuously increased positions and declined significantly, and the spot price has also declined. On the supply side, large factories in the northwest region have shut down, and the operation in the southwest region has remained at a low level, resulting in a tightened supply. As of February 5, the number of operating furnaces of metallic silicon in China was 178, with an overall operating rate of 22.36%, a decrease of 32 compared to last week. On the demand side, approaching the Spring Festival, most downstream silicon enterprises are on holiday, and the procurement willingness is low except for rigid - demand procurement. The polysilicon production schedule in February was 79,500 tons, a 14.97% month - on - month decrease. The operating rates of the organic silicon and aluminum alloy markets remained stable, and the overall downstream demand is expected to further narrow. The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,400 yuan/ton [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon has continued to increase positions significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green band, and green ladder. The 2 - hour cycle overnight shows a weak green ladder line, with the long - short equilibrium level at 8,850 yuan/ton [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. If it breaks through 8,400 yuan/ton downward, it may turn to a weak operation. For intraday trading, one can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Most sectors are under short - term pressure, and the volatility risk around the Spring Festival increases. Investors need to manage their positions carefully [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver in the precious metals sector are expected to decline next week; alumina in the non - ferrous sector shows a bullish signal, while aluminum, zinc, tin, aluminum alloy, copper, and industrial silicon show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai copper had large fluctuations before the festival. MACD formed a death cross approaching the zero axis, the price dropped to the lower Bollinger Band, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and correct next week. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and long positions are advised to wait and manage positions [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, manganese silicon, rebar, and iron ore show bearish signals next week, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate; European - line container shipping shows a bullish signal [17]. - The main contract of rebar has been falling continuously on the daily line. MACD is in a short position to the zero axis, and the price has broken through MA60. The support around 3000 - 3040 is to be noted, and the downward trend is expected to continue [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fluctuate. In the chemical sector, polypropylene shows a bullish signal, while PTA, paraxylene, etc. show bearish signals [26]. - The main contract of PTA is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in a 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton oscillation range. MACD maintains a long position but the bars are shrinking. The daily - line price shows a weak oscillation, and it is expected to fluctuate next week [29]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean No.1, sugar, and corn in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals next week, while soybean No.2, rapeseed meal, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate [36]. - The main contract of corn is expected to fluctuate before the festival. The daily - line price is in a consolidation state, with insufficient trading volume and open interest. MACD forms a death cross above the zero axis, but the downside space is limited. It may fluctuate around 2220 - 2250 yuan/ton in the short term [41]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The main contracts of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all show oscillation signals next week [2]. - The weekly - line price of IC (CSI 500) futures continued to decline by 2.93%, and the daily - line MACD is in a short position above the zero axis. It is expected to fluctuate next week, and risk and position management should be noted [50]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals next week, while the 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [53]. - The price of the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures T is expected to fluctuate. The daily - line shows a long - position arrangement, and the price has stood above MA250. Attention should be paid to the price movement around MA250, and the resistance range of 108.5 - 108.7 can be noted [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Based on technical indicator signal analysis of futures, different trends are shown in various sectors. In the precious metals sector, silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, while gold remains volatile. In the non - ferrous sector, zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy are bullish, and Shanghai lead is bearish, with the rest being volatile. In the black and shipping sector, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bullish, and European line container shipping is volatile. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG is bullish, and many varieties in the chemical sector such as rubber series, ethylene glycol, methanol, and PTA are bullish. In the agricultural products sector, peanuts and logs are bullish, and sugar, eggs and other varieties are bearish. In the stock index futures, CSI 1000 is bullish, CSI 500 is volatile, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 are bearish. In the treasury bond futures, 2 - year treasury bonds are bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds are mainly volatile [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals: Silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, and gold shows a volatile signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals, Shanghai lead shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [8][9]. - For Shanghai copper, it maintained high - level volatility this week. The weekly line is bullish, and the daily line shows a balance between bulls and bears. If it continues to rise at the beginning of next week and the MACD forms a golden cross, it is expected to break through; otherwise, continue to wait and see [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile. European line container shipping shows a volatile signal [17][18]. - For rebar, it has been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. This week, it showed a "V" shape and is currently in low - level volatility. The MACD is expected to form a golden cross above the zero - axis, and the price may rebound within the range, but it does not form a strong trend [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest of the varieties are volatile. In the chemical sector, rubber series, ethylene glycol, offset printing paper, methanol, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, propylene, pulp, staple fiber, and bottle chips show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are volatile [26][27]. - For PTA, the weekly line has broken through the adjustment center, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a golden cross in MACD, indicating short - term upward momentum. Pay attention to the pressure in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [31]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Peanuts and logs show bullish signals, sugar, eggs, live pigs, and soybean meal show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [38][39]. - For sugar, the weekly line is in a downward channel. Recently, it has been running along the lower edge of the channel, and the daily - line MACD shows a death cross. Be vigilant about the risk of decline [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 1000 futures show bullish signals, CSI 500 futures show volatile signals, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures show bearish signals [50][51]. - The weekly line of IC CSI 500 futures rose 5.45% this week, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and the Bollinger Bands expanding. The daily line shows that the price continues to rise above the MA5, indicating that the upward momentum still exists [53][54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year treasury bond futures are mainly bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile [57][61]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures have a slightly elevated center of gravity this week. The daily line shows that the price has stood above the MA60 and MA120, and the MACD maintains a golden cross. The price is running near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is expected to be volatile or slowly repair upwards. Pay attention to the support at 107.06 - 107.39 and the resistance at 108.5 - 108.7 [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current market shows significant structural characteristics, with various futures varieties having different trends. It is recommended to manage positions based on specific signals [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - In the precious metals sector, gold and palladium show bullish signals, while other varieties are mainly oscillating. In the non-ferrous sector, lithium carbonate shows a bullish signal, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [1][8] - The medium- to long-term upward trend of Shanghai copper has not ended. Key indicators support the continuation of the trend, and short-term sharp corrections are less likely [12] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Rebar and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, and other varieties are mainly oscillating. European container shipping shows a bearish signal [17][18] - Rebar prices are mainly in consolidation. Technical momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to consolidate above the support range in the short term [21] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, and LPG show bullish signals, and asphalt is mainly oscillating. In the chemical sector, pure benzene shows a bullish signal, synthetic rubber shows a bearish signal, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [26] - PTA is mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction. The upper resistance is in the range of 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton [1][29] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, and red dates show bullish signals. Rapeseed meal, cotton, logs, and peanuts show bearish signals, and other varieties are mainly oscillating [35][36] - Sugar prices should be noted for the risk of decline. In the long-term downward trend, short-term rebounds are difficult to fundamentally reverse the decline [1][40] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, and CSI 500 futures all show bullish signals, while CSI 1000 futures are mainly oscillating [45] - CSI 500 futures maintain a short-term oscillating upward repair pattern, but attention should be paid to short-term shock/correction risks and position management [47] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 5-year and 30-year treasury bond futures are mainly oscillating, while 2-year and 10-year treasury bond futures mainly show bearish signals [52] - 10-year treasury bond futures are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. The short-term support range is around 107.06 - 107.39, and the upper resistance range is between 108.5 - 108.7 [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The overall market technical signals of commodity futures show a differentiated pattern. Non-ferrous metals such as alumina and aluminum are bullish; among the black series, iron ore is bullish while rebar is bearish. The signals of energy, chemical, and agricultural products sectors vary, with most varieties showing a sideways trend. Financial futures, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and SSE 300 index futures, all show a sideways pattern. Among them, the IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year variety shows a sideways trend, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year varieties show bearish signals [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals like gold and silver show bearish signals, while others show a sideways trend. In the non-ferrous metal sector, alumina and aluminum show bullish signals, zinc and tin show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [9] - The long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper is clear, but it may enter a short - term adjustment. The monthly line is in the third wave of the upward phase since 2016, with long - term trends unchanged, but the daily line shows a sideways trend [1][13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Iron ore shows a bullish signal, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways. European - line container shipping shows a bearish signal [18] - Rebar prices have been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. Currently, technical momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to move sideways above the support range [21] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bearish signal, with others being sideways. In the chemical sector, propylene and polypropylene show bullish signals, while pure benzene and pulp show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [27] - Methanol has short - term upward momentum, with key resistance in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [1][30] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean No. 1 and sugar show bullish signals, while soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, corn starch, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [36] - Sugar prices are under significant short - term bearish pressure, and although there may be a technical rebound due to oversold conditions, the overall downward pattern is difficult to change [1] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 index futures all show a sideways pattern. The IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term, but potential reversal signals need to be monitored [2][47] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show a sideways trend, while the 5 - year, 30 - year, and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals. The 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly sideways, and attention should be paid to the price trend next week [2][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the futures market in the 53rd week of 2025 through technical indicators, showing that different sectors have different trends, with some showing bullish signals, some bearish, and others in a volatile state. The overall market has obvious structural characteristics, and it is recommended to track key indicators and pay attention to position management [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - The gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, while the rest are volatile. In the non - ferrous metals sector, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, and polysilicon shows a bearish signal, with the remaining varieties mainly volatile [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai copper has a strong upward trend. The weekly and monthly trends resonate, and the short - term possibility of a sharp correction is low [12]. 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal show bullish signals, the rest of the black varieties are volatile, and European line container shipping shows a bearish signal [20]. - The price of the main rebar contract mainly consolidates, with insufficient technical momentum and is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [24]. 3.3能化板块 - Fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and LPG in the energy sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. In the chemical sector, polypropylene, pure benzene, caustic soda, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile [29]. - The PTA main contract has short - term upward repair momentum. If it breaks through the resistance, the medium - term target can be higher [32]. 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean meal, palm oil, rapeseed meal, sugar, corn, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. The sugar main contract needs to pay attention to the risk of decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to reverse the downward trend [38][42]. 3.5股指期货板块 - The Shanghai 50 Index futures, CSI 500 Index futures, CSI 1000 Index futures, and SSE Composite 300 Index futures all show a volatile pattern. The IC CSI 500 Index futures are expected to fluctuate next week with upward momentum, and attention should be paid to whether there are reversal signals [49][52]. 3.6国债期货板块 - The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures are volatile. The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile, with upward repair power in the short term but also pressure [55][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Based on the performance of various sectors in 2025, the report provides technical analysis and risk management guidelines for different sectors in 2026, emphasizing the need for refined and differentiated risk management strategies due to the significant differentiation in sector trends and price fluctuations [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The prices of non - ferrous metals showed significant differentiation in 2025, with most rising but with different fluctuation paths. Volatility varied among different varieties, with lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and nickel having higher volatility [12]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Copper (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is still in an upward trend, with the next long - term resistance expected between 100,550 - 101,040 yuan/ton. In the short term, the upward trend is not smooth, and there is a risk of adjustment within the range [28][33]. - **Aluminum (SHFE)**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in an upward cycle, but a strong trend requires a signal. In the short term, there is a lack of a strong upward signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction [39][45]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a bullish trend but lacks verification. In the short term, the sustainability of the upward channel needs further verification, and there is a risk of volatility [50][58]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should focus on "continuing trends but increasing volatility, with significant differentiation in variety strategies", using refined and differentiated strategies for different varieties [62]. 3.2. Black Metals Sector - **2025 Review**: The black metals sector showed an overall oscillatory pattern in 2025, with raw materials more volatile than finished products. Finished products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils were under pressure throughout the year, while raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke showed a pattern of falling first and then rising [67][68]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Rebar**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a downward channel, and technical indicators show no signal of trend reversal. In the short term, it maintains low - level operation, and price fluctuations need attention [83][89]. - **Iron Ore**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, lacking technical indicator signals. In the short term, the center of the oscillation range moves down, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [94][100]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should establish the core of "uncertain overall trend but coexistence of structural risks and opportunities", implementing refined and differentiated strategies [105]. 3.3. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **2025 Review**: The energy cost side represented by crude oil declined throughout the year, dragging down downstream chemical products. There was significant differentiation among varieties, with high volatility in raw materials and building materials and relatively mild volatility in mid - stream chemical products [107][108]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Methanol**: In the medium - to - long term, the long - cycle trend lacks technical guidance, and there is still price volatility. In the short term, attention should be paid to rebound opportunities, but sustainability and strength need more trading days to verify [128][135]. - **PTA**: In the medium - to - long term, the downward trend is not completed, and its sustainability is uncertain. In the short term, there is upward repair momentum, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations near the resistance range [140][148]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should adopt refined management, mainly using interval band operations when the trend is unclear and continuously tracking factors affecting price fluctuations [152][153]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **2025 Review**: The agricultural products sector showed an overall oscillatory and weak pattern in 2025, with significant differentiation among varieties. Feed raw materials and some varieties showed a downward trend, while sugar showed independent oscillations [154]. - **Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook**: - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuation of the downward trend [170][176]. - **Corn**: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, and attention should be paid to short - term price opportunities. In the short term, the oscillation center rises, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations in the downward channel [180][188]. - **Risk Management Guidelines**: In 2026, risk management should abandon simple judgments on the overall direction of the sector and formulate differentiated strategies based on the technical forms and volatility characteristics of each variety [193].