Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Most short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have gained significant profits after nearly two months. Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation - The short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have been held for nearly two months with large profit margins. It is suggested to gradually reduce positions before the National Day holiday and only keep part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the $60 support during the holiday, short - term acceleration space is large [1][2] 2. Individual Varieties (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and seasonal decline in US demand, the probability of oversupply in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on oversupply should be maintained without over - emphasizing short - term positive factors [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 485. The hourly cycle turned bullish again, with the short - term support at 482. There are two strategies: stop - loss of short positions at the hourly level or widen the stop - loss to the upper limit of the daily - level oscillation at 500 [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decline in supply due to device maintenance, high production and inventory levels remain. New device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure, so the bearish view remains [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today and closed above the short - term pressure at 6935, but the rebound was weak. Half of the short positions should be taken profit [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventory reduction is slow, and there is pressure from falling crude oil prices and synthetic rubber substitution. The demand side is mixed, with semi - steel tire开工 falling and full - steel tire开工 remaining high. The fundamentals are neutral [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 16000. Short positions should be held [12][13] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand situation of synthetic rubber has no major contradictions. The supply side has seen an increase in production after device maintenance. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with port inventory increasing and supply pressure expected to rise. The cost side is bearish [14][17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 11730. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 11730 [17] (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and high production. The short - term supply - demand has weakened slightly, mainly driven by crude oil costs [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 6655. The remaining short positions should be stopped - loss [21] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and PTA has a high probability of inventory accumulation due to high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 4620. The remaining short positions should be taken profit [22] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved slightly during the peak season, but the supply pressure has increased due to new device production. Be cautious about short - selling after the price decline, and pay attention to the cost - collapse logic caused by falling crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 6935. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [24] (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak current and strong expectation continues. The domestic production is still high, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Although there is a potential for improvement in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, so it is not recommended to buy on the left side. The downward trend since August has not ended [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 2375. The remaining short positions should be held cautiously, and the take - profit can be set at 2375 [28] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to new device production, and the demand is weak both domestically and overseas. The inventory has reached a historical high, and the pressure remains [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4980 and the 15 - minute pressure at 4930. Short positions on the 15 - minute cycle can be held, with the stop - loss at 4945 [32] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure from new device production and the impact of falling crude oil prices [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4275. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 4275 [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure has increased due to new device production, and the demand improvement during the peak season is limited. The supply - demand situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - driven impact of falling crude oil prices [37] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 7205. The remaining short positions should be held [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the high - production and high - inventory situation has not improved [41] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 1321. The remaining short positions should be held [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is abundant, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has limited improvement. The inventory has increased again, and the short - term fundamentals have weakened. Attention should be paid to the demand improvement during the peak season and device maintenance in the medium term [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure difficult to determine, and the 15 - minute pressure at 2575. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [44]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report - Risk Management: Futures Technical Analysis Weekly Report (Week 36, 2025) - Report Date: September 7, 2025 Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific technical analysis and signal summaries for different sectors, which can be used to infer potential investment trends for each sector. Core Views - Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends. Some sectors have clear bullish signals, while others are in a state of oscillation. The volatility of each sector and variety also varies significantly, with some showing high volatility and others more stable [1][2][3][4]. Sector Summaries 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, nickel, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon show bullish signals, while most precious metals are in an oscillating state. Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver is oscillating. For example, aluminum, tin, and nickel have strong bullish signals [10][11]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Copper (CU2510)**: The adjustment is not over yet. Although the moving average shows a bullish arrangement and the risk of decline is weak, it is necessary to wait for price signals. The price has the potential to break through, but it needs volume - price driving signals [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The downward momentum has weakened, and it has temporarily found support at the MA60 moving average. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of a callback, especially the support effectiveness in the range of 66,800 - 69,600 [17]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: New energy and high - tech metals represented by lithium carbonate and polycrystalline silicon have a wide price fluctuation range, indicating high market volatility. Traditional industrial metals and precious metals have relatively more stable price trends [21]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector mainly has bullish and oscillating signals. Rebar, wire rod, iron ore, coking coal, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, while other black varieties are oscillating. The European line shipping shows a bullish signal [26][27]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price has been oscillating and falling this week, but the support around 3,050 - 3,070 yuan/ton is effective. The MACD shows a potential golden cross. If the price breaks below this range, it may fall to the 2,950 - 3,000 range [30]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, and European line shipping have a wide range of support and resistance levels, indicating high market volatility. Rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have relatively more stable price trends [35]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The energy sector is in an oscillating state. In the chemical sector, glass, methanol, synthetic rubber, and pure benzene show bullish signals, while other varieties are oscillating [37][38][39]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The downward trend has stabilized, but it needs volume - price signals to confirm a rebound. The short - term support range of 1,230 - 1,250 yuan/ton is effective [43]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Paraxylene (PX), styrene, short - fiber, and bottle chips have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Crude oil, methanol, and other varieties have relatively more stable price trends [45]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil, peanuts, rapeseed oil, and the corn series show bullish signals. Eggs have changed from a bullish to a bearish signal, and cotton shows a bearish signal. Other varieties are oscillating [50][51][52]. - **Analysis of Specific Varieties**: - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price has shown signs of stabilizing in the range of 2,980 - 3,020 yuan/ton, and the MA60 moving average provides effective support. However, it needs increased volume to confirm bullish momentum [56]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, cotton, and other varieties have a wide range of support and resistance levels, with high market volatility. Corn, corn starch, and logs have relatively more stable price trends [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish; tin, alumina, and gold are bearish; and zinc, nickel, etc. are range - bound. In the black and shipping sector, the black series is in a full - scale shock, while European line container shipping is independently bullish. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish, some are bullish, and others are mainly in shock. In the agricultural products sector, palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and the corn series is bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals; tin, alumina, and gold show bearish signals; and the rest are mainly in shock [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Bullish varieties are above the pivot point, and short - term long positions can be arranged if the support is not broken. Bearish varieties are under pressure at the pivot point, and short - term short positions can be considered when rebounding to the resistance with volume. Volatile varieties need to be vigilant against breakthrough risks [15][18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector is mainly in shock, and the shipping sector shows bullish signals [22][23]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The black series is in a full - scale shock, and European line container shipping is independently bullish. Coal and coke varieties need to be vigilant against wide - range fluctuations, and the shock pattern may be broken if the boundary is broken [30]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: 20 - gauge rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda show bullish signals, and the rest are mainly in shock [34][35]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish. Bullish varieties are dominant above the pivot point, and the chemical sector is in shock. Soda ash is in wide - range shock and can be operated in the short - term range [42]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes show bullish signals, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and corn and corn starch show bearish signals [46][47][49]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish. The bean and oil varieties are generally in shock, and the corn series is mainly bearish [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures price dropped, with a closing price of 9368 yuan and a decline of 1.04%. If supply continues to increase and demand fails to improve effectively, the palm oil futures price may face continued pressure [3]. - For stock index futures, due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase [6]. - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. - For iron ore, the overall fundamentals are strongly supported, and it shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. - For glass, the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. - For alumina, it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Futures - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures closed at 9368 yuan, down 1.04%. The reasons for the decline are complex. On the supply side, Malaysia is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and Reuters expects the July inventory to reach a nearly two - year high, with the production - increasing expectation still in place in August. Indonesia's biodiesel and export policy adjustments bring uncertainty to international supply. On the demand side, domestic terminal consumption is weak, the spot basis in Chinese ports is continuously weakening despite low inventory, EU imports are down year - on - year, and India's high imports in June cannot change the overall weak demand. In addition, the weak price of soybean oil intensifies competition from substitutes, and technically, the daily line is near the over - bought area, with insufficient short - term upward momentum [3]. Stock Index Futures - Multiple institutions interpreted policies such as fiscal subsidies for personal consumer loans, and the National Data Bureau stated that China's total computing power ranks second in the world. Due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase. Today, the three major A - share indices rose first and then fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3700 points, ending an 8 - day winning streak with a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow [6][7]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mills' profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. In addition, the anti - involution sentiment in the black industry chain has led to a relatively healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. Alumina - As a "mineral with stories", alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific ratings for different sectors and varieties within the futures market, including "strongly bullish," "bullish," "sideways," "bearish," and "strongly bearish" [11][23][34][44]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market from a technical perspective, providing signals and trends for various sectors and varieties. It suggests different trading strategies based on the volatility and trends of each variety, emphasizing the importance of risk management and trading with pivot points [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Carbonate lithium and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lead, tin, nickel, alumina, and stainless steel show bearish signals. The rest are sideways [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like carbonate lithium have upward potential but are volatile; alumina faces downward pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties like copper, aluminum, and gold suggest conservative strategies [15][18]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Hot-rolled coil, iron ore, rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, with rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon being strongly bearish. The rest are sideways [22][23][24]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties such as coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon face downward risks. Coke is highly volatile but trendless. Medium-volatility varieties are under pressure, and low-volatility varieties like European container shipping are expected to be stable [29]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Asphalt shows a bearish signal, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sector, soda ash, caustic soda, and urea are sideways, while glass and methanol are bearish [33][34]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like glass and PVC face significant downward pressure, while natural rubber has opportunities but is volatile. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties suggest a wait-and-see approach [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rapeseed oil, live pigs, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, apples, and jujubes show bullish signals, while sugar and soybean No. 1 show bearish signals [43][44]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like apples have significant upward potential but are volatile, while rapeseed has no trend and is suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility bullish varieties have upward momentum, while bearish varieties like soybean No. 1 and sugar are under pressure. Oscillating varieties suggest a wait-and-see or range-trading approach [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina showing a bearish signal and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline. The Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [1][10][14]. - The overall technical rating of the black sector is stable, with rebar turning bearish. Coking coal and coke are in an adjustment period after a sharp rise last week, showing a bearish signal next week. The coking coal JM2601 is at risk of a short - term decline [2][26][30]. - In the energy - chemical sector, asphalt is bullish, crude oil and fuel oil are volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG are bearish. The glass, caustic soda, and soda ash in the chemical sector are mainly volatile, and the glass FG509 is at risk of a short - term decline [3][35][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean oil is strongly bullish, and soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs are cautiously bullish. Sugar and live pigs are bearish, and the sugar SR509 is at risk of a short - term decline [4][44][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The bullish trends in the Shanghai aluminum, zinc, nickel, and alumina futures markets have ended and turned into a volatile state, with alumina turning bearish and industrial silicon showing a strong bearish signal. The Shanghai copper CU2509 is mainly volatile with a risk of further decline, and the Shanghai lead PB2509 is at risk of falling to the bottom [10][11][14]. 1.2 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Tin, lithium carbonate, and nickel have the largest fluctuation space, especially lithium carbonate S2 has a 7.4% jump compared to S3, so short - term fluctuation risks need to be noted. The pivot points of copper, aluminum, and zinc are concentrated, and there is strong resistance in the R2 - R3 of international copper. Alumina, lead, and stainless steel have the weakest fluctuations. Polysilicon/industrial silicon shows non - continuous price jumps, and tin and lithium carbonate have significant breakthrough opportunities, so position management is necessary [23]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The overall signal indicator rating of the black sector is relatively stable. Rebar has turned into a bearish signal. Coking coal and coke were mainly in a volatile adjustment this week after a sharp rise last week, and the technical indicator signal is bearish next week [26][27]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Iron ore and European line container shipping had the smallest fluctuations this week. Coking coal and coke showed a stepped jump. Manganese silicon/silicon iron had the highest absolute price and dense resistance levels. The technical structure of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar but at a higher price level. The resistance interval from the pivot point to R1 of wire rods jumped by 152 yuan. The R3 resistance of coke is close to the R2 of coking coal, and the prices of the two are strongly correlated. Overall, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and coke have greater breakthrough potential, while iron ore and European line container shipping have limited fluctuation space [33]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy - chemical sector, except for asphalt showing a bullish technical indicator signal, crude oil and fuel oil have turned volatile, and low - sulfur fuel oil and LPG have turned bearish. The chemical sector is mainly divided into volatile and bearish parts, with glass, caustic soda, and soda ash being mainly volatile [35][36]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Crude oil had low volatility this week. The support and resistance intervals of soda ash, glass, and urea are narrow. Para - xylene, plastics, and styrene have high prices and significant fluctuations. PVC shows a jump - up structure. Natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have dense resistance levels [40][42]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - According to the technical indicator signal summary, soybean oil, soybean No.2, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, red dates, and logs in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, among which soybean oil shows a strong bullish signal, and the others are cautiously bullish signals. Sugar and live pigs show bearish technical indicator signals [44][46]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The live pig has the most dramatic fluctuations in the support and resistance intervals (the S3 - R3 span is 2264 yuan). There are short - term interval operation opportunities in the volatile market, but position management needs to be cautious. The technical structures of soybean varieties are dense (the R3 - S3 of soybean meal is only 297 yuan), and the interval operation space is small. Corn and its by - products have the weakest fluctuations, so position management is necessary [52].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed mixed results on July 30, with lead futures experiencing slight declines while the spot market remained stable [1] Supply Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is under pressure due to increased losses, with only a slight recovery expected in July for refined recycled lead. Regular maintenance of primary lead in regions like Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has not yet concluded, which may provide strong bottom support for lead prices [1] Demand Analysis - The lead-acid battery market shows slight improvements in some areas, but overall demand during the peak season is insufficient. The recent imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese lead-acid batteries by the Middle East raises concerns about future demand [1] Market Outlook - According to technical analysis, lead prices have returned to a fluctuating range, with risks of further declines gradually being released. The market is approaching the completion of the fourth wave, with expectations of a fifth wave rebound. It is suggested to consider buying on dips or purchasing call options [1]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is neutral, with a balance of buy and sell signals across various moving averages [2][5]. - The 5-day simple moving average (MA5) is at 25017.4, indicating a sell signal, while the 50-day (MA50) and 100-day (MA100) moving averages show buy signals at 24840.0 and 24647.5 respectively [4][5]. - Technical indicators such as RSI(14) at 31 suggest a neutral position, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates overbought conditions at 99.256 [6]. Group 2 - The Average True Range (ATR) is at 61.3214, indicating low volatility in the market [6]. - The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -73.2270, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with equal buy and sell recommendations, leading to an overall neutral summary [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The colored metals sector should be vigilant against short - term trend reversals. Different varieties in the black, agricultural products, and energy - chemical sectors require differentiated risk management strategies, including short - term operations, band trading, and combining with fundamentals [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Colored Metals Sector - **1H25 Colored Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals sector in 1H25 was weak, with significant differentiation among varieties. Traditional industrial metals were relatively resistant to decline, while new energy materials declined sharply. For example, copper and aluminum prices rose, while zinc, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon prices fell [13]. - The technical indicator ratings of copper and aluminum were generally consistent, but the correlation between the rating and actual yield was different. The technical indicators of zinc and lead had a high correlation with yields. For new energy metals, the effectiveness of technical indicator ratings was limited [15][23]. - **Detailed Review of Key Colored Metals Variety - Copper** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price and volume changes of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract in the first half of the year can be divided into five trends. Currently, the volume and open interest have rebounded slightly, but the price increase is limited, and it is necessary to wait for further volume signals [39][40][43]. - **MACD**: There were 5 golden cross signals and 3 dead cross signals in the first half of the year. The short - term MACD formed a dead cross signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction. Medium - and long - term operations need to consider the long - term bullish fundamentals [45][46]. - **Oscillating Indicators**: The overall signal effectiveness of oscillating indicators was insufficient. The long - cycle KDJ was more effective in observing large - scale corrections and sudden rebounds, while the CCI had a high failure rate [49][52]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point of Shanghai copper rose steadily, showing a bullish market. However, the resistance levels were "solidified", and the support levels were "moving up". The price was compressed in a box, and the adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [53][55]. - **Colored Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - Traditional non - ferrous metals and new energy metals can use technical indicator ratings to capture price risks. For example, for Shanghai aluminum, set stop - loss levels and use put options to hedge against correction risks; for Shanghai zinc, use call options instead of some long positions [61][62]. - Shanghai copper is in a stage of shock consolidation. There is a risk of short - term correction, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of downward break - through and false breakthrough. Long - term upward trends need to be confirmed by volume [63][65]. 3.2 Black Metals Sector - **1H25 Black Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - In the first half of 2025, black metal futures all declined, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The volatility of coking coal, coke, and iron ore was high, while that of rebar and hot - rolled coil was relatively low [64]. - The pivot point distribution of each variety showed obvious differentiation, with "raw materials > finished products > alloys" in terms of volatility gradient. Coking coal and coke had a high risk of breaking through S2 and R2, iron ore had a medium risk of breaking through S3, and manganese silicon had a high risk of breaking through R3 [89]. - **Detailed Review of Key Black Metals Variety - Rebar** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price of the rebar main - continuous contract in 1H25 can be divided into five stages. Currently, the decline has slowed down, but the downward pressure has not been eliminated. The market is in a weak balance state, and it is necessary to be vigilant against break - through risks [92][93][94]. - **Technical Patterns**: The effectiveness of the dead cross signal of MACD was stronger than that of the golden cross signal. Oscillating indicators did not have significant long - or short - term guidance, and it was necessary to be cautious about rebounds in the third quarter [96][98]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point moved down step by step in 1H25, and the market was dominated by bears. The current price is in a box - shaped shock between S2 and R2. The adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [102]. - **Black Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - The upstream coking coal and coke can use short - term box operations based on the new weekly Fibonacci pivot, and long - term holding needs to consider fundamental fluctuations. Iron ore can appropriately loosen the box operation to S3 and R3. Rebar is in a weak shock pattern, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of short - term rebound and false breakthrough [113][115]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **1H25 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Rating Review** - Palm oil and soybean meal had high volatility, suitable for short - term active operations; pork and soybean oil had moderate volatility, suitable for medium - term trading; sugar, corn, and cotton had low volatility, suitable for trading strategies that follow the fundamentals [116]. - The overall fit between the market fluctuations and technical indicator ratings in the agricultural products sector was less than 40%, but the yield performance was relatively coordinated in long - and short - term ratings. High - volatility varieties need to use multi - dimensional technical indicators for refined market ratings [116]. - **Agricultural Products Sector Fibonacci Pivot Analysis** - Different varieties had different levels of activity. High - volatility varieties such as soybeans, palm oil, eggs, and red dates were suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as apples, corn starch, soybean meal, and peanuts were suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as japonica rice and cotton were suitable for combining with fundamentals and waiting for key technical level breakthroughs [139]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Sector - The energy - chemical sector mainly adopts differentiated risk management. High - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene are suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as LPG and asphalt are suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as PVC and polypropylene are suitable for medium - term operations combined with fundamentals. PTA should be vigilant against overbought corrections [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be weak with the increase in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, the reversal of the decline in domestic port inventories, the continuous decline in blast furnace operating rates and daily hot metal production, and the weakening of iron ore demand. The I2509 contract is recommended to consider a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [10]. - Given the continued decline in hot metal production, the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, and the potential increase in inventory pressure during the consumption off - season, it is suggested to buy put options [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Price**: As of June 13, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 703 (-4.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 (-10) yuan/dry ton [8]. - **Shipment**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons [8]. - **Arrival**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2673.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 76.5 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2609.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72.8 tons; at the six northern ports, it was 1383.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157.2 tons [8]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 tons [7][8]. - **Profitability**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The I2509 contract was weak this week, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2601 contract. On the 13th, the spread was 30.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Position**: On June 13, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 2700, a week - on - week increase of 800. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 30252, an increase of 6809 from the previous week [23]. - **Spot Price**: On June 13, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 760 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From June 2 - 8, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports increased [33]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8798.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.50 tons [36]. - **Inventory Availability**: As of June 12, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days [39]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In May, China imported 9813.1 tons of iron ore and concentrates, a decrease of 500.7 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 48640.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of June 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 61.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [42]. - **Domestic Production**: In April 2025, China's iron ore production was 8469.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. From January - April, the cumulative production was 32859.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. The iron concentrate production of 433 iron mines was 2301.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [46]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Production**: In April, China's crude steel production was 8602 tons, the same as the previous year. From January - April, the cumulative production was 34535 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. - **Steel Export and Import**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 tons of steel, an increase of 11.6 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January - May, the cumulative export was 4846.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 48.1 tons of steel, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January - May, the cumulative import was 255.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [49]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On June 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot metal production was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [52]. 3.5. Options Market - Given the continued decline in hot metal production and the reversal of the decline in iron ore port inventories, it is recommended to buy put options [55].