Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The overall market technical signals of commodity futures show a differentiated pattern. Non-ferrous metals such as alumina and aluminum are bullish; among the black series, iron ore is bullish while rebar is bearish. The signals of energy, chemical, and agricultural products sectors vary, with most varieties showing a sideways trend. Financial futures, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and SSE 300 index futures, all show a sideways pattern. Among them, the IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year variety shows a sideways trend, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year varieties show bearish signals [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals like gold and silver show bearish signals, while others show a sideways trend. In the non-ferrous metal sector, alumina and aluminum show bullish signals, zinc and tin show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [9] - The long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper is clear, but it may enter a short - term adjustment. The monthly line is in the third wave of the upward phase since 2016, with long - term trends unchanged, but the daily line shows a sideways trend [1][13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Iron ore shows a bullish signal, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways. European - line container shipping shows a bearish signal [18] - Rebar prices have been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. Currently, technical momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to move sideways above the support range [21] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bearish signal, with others being sideways. In the chemical sector, propylene and polypropylene show bullish signals, while pure benzene and pulp show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [27] - Methanol has short - term upward momentum, with key resistance in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [1][30] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean No. 1 and sugar show bullish signals, while soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, corn starch, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [36] - Sugar prices are under significant short - term bearish pressure, and although there may be a technical rebound due to oversold conditions, the overall downward pattern is difficult to change [1] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 index futures all show a sideways pattern. The IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term, but potential reversal signals need to be monitored [2][47] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show a sideways trend, while the 5 - year, 30 - year, and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals. The 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly sideways, and attention should be paid to the price trend next week [2][53]

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 53 周 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 29 日 ★风险提示 流动性风险，趋势假性反转风险，供应超预期，需求超预期， 宏观风险超预期。 ★商品期货 贵金属板块中黄金显示明确看涨信号，其余品种以震荡为 主。有色板块整体偏强，铝、氧化铝、锌、铅、工业硅和碳 酸锂均发出看涨信号，仅多晶硅看跌；其中沪铜周线在突破 三角形整理后趋势强劲，月线处于长周期上涨第三浪，各周 期技术指标共振向上，短期内大幅回调概率较低。黑色及航 运板块分化明显：热卷、铁矿石与焦煤看涨，欧线集运则以 看跌为主；螺纹钢长期处于重心抬升的下降通道内，当前技 术动能不足，预计继续低位盘整。能源板块中燃料油、低硫 燃料油和 LPG 看涨，其余震荡。化工板块多数品种如聚丙烯、 纯苯、烧碱等呈现看涨信号；周线级别显示，价格已突破调 整中枢上沿，短期具备上修动能，若突破关键阻力则中期目 标可上看更高区间。农产品板块看涨品种较多，包括豆粕、 棕榈油、白糖等；但部分品种周线仍处于明确下跌趋势中， 均线空头排列与 MACD 死叉显示空头压力显著，短期反弹预 计难以逆转整体跌势。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术 ...

基于 2025 年有色板块分化行情，2026 年风险管理应以"趋 势延续但波动加剧"为核心。策略上需精细化分类，碳酸锂 等侧重区间交易与严格风控；沪铜等应当把握顺势参与风险 管理，但于关键阻力位加强对冲；沪铝等采取区间突破跟随 策略，关注震荡上行风险，关注价格在调整中枢中的表现， 注意仓位管理。 ★黑色板块 2025 年黑色板块整体震荡，原料（焦煤、焦炭）波动显著大 于成材（螺纹钢、热卷）。展望 2026 年，基于技术分析，风 险管理需精细化分类：高波动品种应侧重区间交易与严格风 控；趋势性品种可顺势而为，但需警惕关键阻力位引发的调 整；温和品种则采取区间突破跟随策略。总体需将波动率管 理与方向判断并重，灵活运用衍生工具进行风险对冲。 ★能化板块 年度报告——风险管理 基于期货技术分析 重点品种年度风险管理指引 ★有色板块 | 报告日期： | 2025 年 | 12 | 月 | 26 | 日 | | 吴奇翀 | 产业咨询高级分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ★有色板块 | | | | | | | 从业资格号： | F ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different futures sectors, including "strongly bullish", "bullish", "neutral (sideways)", "bearish", and "strongly bearish" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints The overall market shows structural differentiation. Different futures sectors have different trends, and investors need to combine technical signals and exercise caution. For example, in commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products have different outlooks; in financial futures, stock index futures and treasury bond futures also show different trends [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metal Sector - Gold and palladium in the precious metal sub - sector show bullish signals, while silver and platinum are sideways. In the non - ferrous sub - sector, aluminum, zinc, and aluminum alloy are bullish, nickel is bearish, and the rest are sideways [9]. - For Shanghai copper (CU2601), the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains intact, but there may be short - term adjustments. The resistance on the weekly line is in the range of 93,800 - 94,700 yuan/ton, and the support is around 91,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, rebar and wire rod show bearish signals, and the rest of the black series and European container shipping are sideways [19]. - For rebar (RB2601), the price dropped significantly this week. The MA60 moving average is a pressure level. The price has returned to the downward channel, and the expected upward momentum is limited. The resistance is in the range of 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sub - sector, fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are bullish, LPG is bearish, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sub - sector, synthetic rubber and ethylene glycol are bullish, and the rest are mostly sideways [29]. - For methanol (MA601), the price was relatively flat this week. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways consolidation state, and long - position holders need to pay attention to position management [33]. 4. Agricultural Product Sector - Peanuts, soybean meal, and live pigs show bullish signals, while palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, red dates, and soybean oil show bearish signals, and the rest are sideways [38]. - For sugar (SR605), the price dropped this week and hit a new low. The short - term price may fluctuate sideways or have a certain upward correction, and investors need to pay attention to position management [43]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, and CSI 500 futures show bullish signals, among which Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 futures show strongly bullish signals, and CSI 1000 is sideways [49]. - For IC CSI 500 futures, the short - term price has some upward momentum, but the medium - term price is expected to be sideways, and the upward space is limited. Investors need to pay attention to position management [51]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures show sideways signals, while 5 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals [56]. - For T 10 - year treasury bond futures, the price is under downward pressure in the short term. The support range is between 107.06 - 107.39, but the support strength is weak. If the price rises above the MA250 moving average, it may enter a high - level sideways state [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [1][4][11] 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures market is expected to be strong in the short - term. With a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. If inventory continues to decline, the futures price may rise further. It's recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The establishment of a storage platform indicates future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures market is expected to remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the industry is weak, with high inventory and limited restocking due to downstream production cut expectations [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 3.43% to 95,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [1] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by a large - scale battery purchase agreement in the North American market, there is a strong demand expectation. The inventory data to be released tomorrow afternoon may affect the price [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased significantly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a strong red ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 92,160 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [1] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 0.03% to 54,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the establishment of a joint platform, the price opened higher. The establishment of the storage platform means future production cuts, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is still accumulating [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position decreased slightly, and it is still controlled by bulls. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 54,835 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [7] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 1.43% to 8,255 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [11] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high with continuous accumulation for three weeks [11] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position increased slightly, and it is controlled by bears. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle shows a weak green ladder, with a long - short dividing line at 8,950 yuan/ton [11] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the influence of downstream polysilicon policies and short - term emotional fluctuations. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading with the help of the 8:30 am live broadcast [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market shows a significant differentiation pattern. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are generally strong, while the energy and chemical sectors and the agricultural products sectors are weak. The four major stock index futures show a bullish trend, and the signals in the treasury bond futures market are also differentiated [1][2]. - In operation, it is necessary to treat different types of varieties differently. For strong varieties, avoid chasing high prices and focus on opportunities after corrections. For weak varieties, pay attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colored and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, and silver is mainly oscillating. In the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, lead, stainless steel, etc. show bullish signals, while industrial silicon, alumina, and lithium carbonate show bearish signals [10]. - For Shanghai copper CU2601, the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged, with the key resistance level at 93,800 - 94,700 yuan/ton. There may be a short - term correction, but there is support at around 91,000 yuan/ton. If there is no top divergence and the Bollinger Band remains expanding during the correction, it is expected to continue the upward trend [12]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - Coking coal and manganese silicon in the black sector show bullish signals, while rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. show bearish signals. European line container shipping shows a bullish signal [20]. - For rebar RB2601, the mid - term upward repair still has momentum, but the MA60 moving average is a resistance level. The daily line shows that there are risk signals, and the upper resistance range is 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [24]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil in the energy sector shows a bullish signal, and LPG shows a bearish signal. In the chemical sector, p - xylene, plastic, etc. show bearish signals [30]. - For methanol 2601, the price mainly oscillates around the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the upward channel is not smooth. Bulls need to pay attention to position management [33]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil and red dates in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while soybean No.1, soybean meal, etc. show bearish signals [39]. - For sugar SR601, the medium - term price still has downward fluctuation space, and the short - term rebound power is weak. Pay attention to position management [44]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Sector - The four major stock index futures all show bullish signals, among which the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show strong bullish signals [50]. - For the IC CSI 500 futures, the short - term has a certain upward repair power, but the medium - term price mainly oscillates, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to position management [52]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures mainly oscillate [57]. - For the T 10 - year treasury bond futures, if the price continues to deviate below the MA250, the downward pressure is large; if it fluctuates between the two moving averages, wait and see; if it stabilizes above the MA120, the downward risk weakens [60][62].

周度报告——风险管理 ★商品期货 贵金属板块整体维持震荡，黄金与白银均未出现明确方向性 信号。有色金属板块表现活跃，其中铜、国际铜、铸造铝合 金呈现强烈看涨信号，铝、锌、工业硅及多晶硅亦显示看涨， 氧化铝则独自看跌，其余品种以震荡为主。以沪铜为例，周 线级别在突破三角形整理后维持关键支撑位上方，均线呈多 头排列，但上行面临强阻力区间，呈现缓慢震荡上行格局； 日线 MACD 出现金叉，短期大幅下跌风险较低，操作上建议 关注回调企稳后的多头机会。黑色及航运板块中，螺纹钢看 涨，焦炭与锰硅看跌，欧线集运及其他黑色系品种震荡运行； 螺纹钢周线企稳，日线已突破下降通道上轨，若布林带扩张 配合价格上涨，仍有上行空间。能源板块中仅 LPG 看涨，其 余震荡。化工板块多数品种看涨，包括 PTA、对二甲苯、丙 烯等，仅烧碱看跌。农产品板块中豆一、油菜籽及花生看涨， 豆油、苹果、菜籽粕等品种看跌，其余以震荡为主。整体市 场呈现结构性机会，建议结合技术信号与仓位管理，把握各 品种回调或突破时的操作时机。 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 49 周 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，当 ...

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 48 周 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 23 日 ★商品期货 期货市场各板块整体承压，看跌情绪占据主导。有色板块中， 仅多晶硅呈现看涨信号，铜、铅、镍等多数品种看跌，其中 铝、碳酸锂、氧化铝为强烈看跌；碳酸锂主力合约虽周内震 荡上涨，但周五大幅回调并出现"倒锤子线"弱势反转形 态，预计下周将面临回调风险，需关注 89000-90000 元/吨附 近波动。黑色及航运板块多数品种震荡，但焦煤、焦炭及欧 线集运看跌；螺纹钢主力价格虽周初上涨，但随后连续回落， 目前运行于布林带中轨下方，短期面临回调压力，支撑区间 看 2950-3000 元/吨。能化板块中，低硫燃料油、沥青、LPG 及纯苯、塑料、尿素等多个化工品显示看跌或强烈看跌信号； PTA 整体震荡，重心持平，预计下周震荡偏弱，支撑区间在 4380-4430 元/吨。农产品板块以震荡为主，其中油菜籽和玉 米淀粉看涨，而棕榈油、豆二、豆粕及鸡蛋看跌；白糖主力 本周价格创新低，但日线显示连续下跌后有一定反弹压力， 上方阻力区间在 5500-5530 元/吨。 ★金融期货 国内股指期货市场整体承压，除中证 ...

周度报告——风险管理 根据技术分析，近期商品市场各板块呈现分化格局。贵金属 整体震荡，而有色板块中铅、不锈钢等多品种显示看跌信号， 但碳酸锂逆势周线上涨，稳居 MA60 均线之上，虽在 90000 元/吨关键位面临多头平仓压力，持仓稳定预示趋势未完全 反转，短期预期围绕 MA60 宽幅震荡。技术分析显示黑色系 中铁矿石、焦煤等看跌，但螺纹钢在低位获得支撑后技术指 标显露反弹动能，价格重返 3050-3070 元/吨支撑区间，需关 注其能否有效企稳。能源化工板块技术分析评级内部分化， 原油、短纤等看涨，PTA 虽周线上行但迫近 MA60 与下降通 道上轨双重阻力，上涨动力受限，下周预计震荡。根据农技 术分析，农产品中豆粕强势突破 MA60 均线，技术形态转多， 然而上方卖压仍存，续涨动力待观察。整体市场震荡为主， 趋势性行情不明，投资者需紧盯关键技术与仓位管理。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，股指期货市场整体承压，上证 50 期货显示看跌信号，而沪深 300、中证 500 及中证 1000 期 货均呈现强烈看跌信号。其中，IC 中证 500 期货周线进入震 荡整理，布林带带宽停止扩张，MACD 柱收缩， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on technical analysis, the precious metals sector is predominantly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper are bearish, and the rest of the varieties are oscillating. Lithium carbonate shows a bullish "hammer line" pattern on the weekly chart, with short - term rebound potential, expected to fluctuate between 71,300 - 76,800 yuan/ton [1]. - Technical analysis indicates that coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and European line container shipping show bearish signals, while the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating. Rebar dropped 2.32% this week, but there is potential for a technical rebound in the 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton range [2]. - In the energy - chemical sector, low - sulfur fuel oil and urea are technically bullish, while asphalt, PVC, and caustic soda show bearish signals, and the rest are oscillating. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4,380 - 4,430 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, sugar is bullish, rapeseed and red dates are bearish, and the rest are oscillating. Soybean meal is expected to trade in the 3,065 - 3,070 yuan/ton range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The precious metals sector is mainly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [10][11]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - High - volatility varieties such as tin, nickel, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have wide price ranges for support and resistance levels, with prominent trading risks. Low - volatility varieties such as aluminum, lead, alumina, stainless steel, and gold are suitable for range - bound operations [17]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Coking coal, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals; European line container shipping mainly shows bearish signals, and the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating [21][22]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and iron ore are suitable for range - bound operations. High - volatility varieties such as coking coal, coke, and European line container shipping should be traded in the direction of the trend with strict stop - losses [29]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Signal Summary - In the energy sector, low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bullish signal, and asphalt shows a bearish signal, with the rest oscillating. In the chemical sector, urea shows a bullish signal, and PVC and caustic soda show bearish signals, with the rest oscillating [33][34]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt may be in a sideways consolidation state. High - volatility varieties such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and staple fiber require attention to price volatility risks and setting active stop - loss strategies [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Sugar in the agricultural products sector shows a bullish signal, rapeseed and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [45][47]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as soybeans, corn, and corn starch are in a low - volatility oscillating consolidation pattern. Medium - volatility varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and sugar have a certain price swing space. High - volatility varieties such as oils, live pigs, and apples have potential price volatility risks and opportunities [53].