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生猪期货(LH2511合约)
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短期低位做多,中期偏多
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 10:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Go long at a low level; Medium - term: Bullish [2] Core View - In August, the supply of pork was sufficient as the group farms had a poor slaughter rhythm, while second - fattening farmers and small farmers were highly motivated to sell. The demand was still in the off - season, but low - price pork stimulated consumption, with an increase in the purchase volume of slaughter enterprises and a slight improvement in product sales, yet it was not enough to drive up prices. Suggestions for operation were to go long at a low level, pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss, with the first support level of the LH2511 contract at 13,700. Farmers were advised to sell for hedging according to their slaughter rhythm [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Relevant charts include the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads) and the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs nationwide (in kilograms) [5][7] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - Relevant charts include the开工率 of key slaughter enterprises (in %), the inventory structure of commercial pigs by weight (in %), and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises (in %) [11][13][14] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Relevant charts include the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening (in yuan per head) [16][18] 4. Market Outlook - The supply was sufficient in August, and the demand was in the off - season with a slight improvement. Operation suggestions were to go long at a low level, pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss, and farmers were advised to sell for hedging according to their slaughter rhythm [20]