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第11批国家组织集中采购的55种药品
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小摩:第11批国家药品集中采购透明度更高 料对制药公司影响逐渐减弱
智通财经网· 2025-07-18 03:10
Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that the Shanghai Sunshine Pharmaceutical Procurement Platform has initiated the data submission process for 55 drugs as part of the 11th National Centralized Procurement (VBP) [1] - The previous ten rounds of VBP typically saw price reductions of 50% to 60%, with the tenth round reaching a high of 70%, but recent policies indicate that price reduction may not be the sole focus moving forward [1][2] - The selection criteria for candidate drugs require at least seven manufacturers to pass consistency evaluations or have their products selected as reference formulations, with only drugs having annual procurement amounts exceeding 100 million RMB retained in further screening [1] - The notification includes a list of 68 products that met evaluation standards but were excluded from the 11th VBP, highlighting reasons for exclusion such as unresolved patent disputes and insufficient clinical safety assessments [2] Industry Implications - The estimated market size for the 55 selected drugs in 2024 is projected to be 50 billion RMB [2] - The emphasis on intellectual property and clinical value in the 11th VBP indicates a shift towards greater transparency in the national drug procurement process, which may enhance predictability and decision-making for manufacturers [2] - The anticipated price reduction in the 11th VBP is expected to be relatively moderate, with a decreasing impact on large pharmaceutical companies in China due to the reduced number of "big drugs" included in this round [1]