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摩根士丹利:微软等四家公司未来四年折旧超6800亿美元
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-02-04 09:58
Core Insights - Major technology companies are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, which is expected to lead to a substantial rise in depreciation expenses over the next few years [1] - Morgan Stanley highlights that this trend has not yet been fully reflected in market expectations, drawing attention from notable short-seller Michael Burry [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that large enterprises are shifting from a relatively asset-light business model to one that relies on heavy infrastructure, expanding data center capacity to meet the rapid growth in artificial intelligence demand [1] - The report estimates that Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, and Alphabet will incur a total depreciation expense exceeding $680 billion over the next four years, based on a revised depreciation model that accounts for the increase in construction in progress [1] - Traditional forecasting methods may underestimate future asset depreciation due to not adequately considering the lag between capital expenditures and asset utilization [1] Group 2: Accounting Practices and Profit Inflation - Michael Burry warns that tech giants are artificially inflating profit levels by extending the useful life of assets, predicting that from 2026 to 2028, large tech companies could inflate profits by $176 billion [2] - Specific companies like Oracle and Meta may see their profits overstated by 26.9% and 20.8%, respectively, due to these accounting practices [2] - Bank of America analyst Justin Post notes that Wall Street is slow to react to the rising speed of depreciation expenses, with Google, Meta, and Amazon expected to significantly increase capital expenditures from 2024 to 2025, leading to accelerated depreciation expenses post-2026 [2]