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Does Broadcom Have a VMware Problem? Goldman Eyes Upside in NTNX
MarketBeat· 2025-08-06 15:13
Group 1: Broadcom Overview - Broadcom is a major player in the semiconductor industry, generating tens of billions in revenue annually and facing competition from companies like Marvell Technology in the AI chip market [1] - Broadcom's recent shift to a subscription payment model for VMware has upset many customers, leading them to explore alternatives like Nutanix [5][10] Group 2: Nutanix's Position - Nutanix has seen its revenue growth rate double from 11% to 22% over the last four quarters, driven by customers migrating from VMware [6] - Nutanix's stock has surged approximately 55% over the past 12 months, with a price target from Goldman Sachs indicating a potential appreciation of over 29% [6] - Nutanix's revenue for the last quarter was $639 million, significantly smaller than VMware's estimated $4.6 billion, indicating substantial growth potential for Nutanix if it captures even a small share of VMware's customers [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - VMware accounts for about 65% to 75% of Broadcom's infrastructure software revenue, making it a critical component of Broadcom's business [7] - The number of customers Nutanix adds per quarter has increased from 400 to 600-700 since Broadcom's changes to VMware [10] - Nutanix has successfully attracted a Global Fortune 500 company and continues to gain customers across various sizes [10] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Both Nutanix and Broadcom have strong investment cases, with Nutanix potentially serving as a hedge against any decline in Broadcom's VMware segment [12] - Nutanix's stock forecast suggests a 23.61% upside potential, with a price target of $91.00 based on analyst ratings [11]