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李宁(02331):25Q3流水承压,产品推新和奥运营销持续推进
CMS· 2025-10-29 03:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) with a target price not specified [2][5] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's overall revenue faced pressure due to warmer weather, resulting in a year-on-year decline in total revenue in the mid-single digits. Despite deeper discounts, inventory remains controllable, and the company will continue to optimize channel structure while investing in Olympic marketing and product innovation. Management maintains guidance for flat revenue and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 [1][5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026 [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month from July to September. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while online channels experienced high single-digit growth [5][6] - The overall discount level increased in Q3 2025, with inventory levels remaining healthy and controllable, expected to be within 4-5 months by year-end [5][6] Store Expansion and Product Innovation - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores compared to the previous quarter. The company continues to push for product innovation, with new launches planned in running, basketball, and outdoor categories [5][6] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company is actively promoting its brand through Olympic marketing initiatives, including the release of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation award equipment and collaborations in skiing events [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively. Net profit projections are 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively [6][9]