李宁 20251231 摘要 Q&A 李宁公司财务状况良好，EBITDA 保持稳定，净现比高，账面净现金超 190 亿元，占市值比例高。公司增加分红，显示其财务实力和对股东的 回报意愿。这些财务数据为公司未来发展提供了坚实基础。 李宁跑步品类逆势而上，成为第一大品类，占比 34%。运动生活品类占 比 29%，篮球品类占比下降。公司需调整运动生活品类定位，并推动篮 球品类复苏，以实现整体增长。品类结构变化影响公司未来增长战略。 李宁提高营销费用率至 10%以上，通过赞助中国奥委会和马拉松赛事， 并发布新科技"超泵胶囊"增强品牌形象。在上海马拉松中，李宁跑鞋 在破 3 小时跑者中的上脚率超过耐克，表明营销策略有效。营销投入增 加旨在提升品牌竞争力和市场份额。 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业有哪些变化？ 从品牌市占度来看，运动户外行业呈现出头部集中度分散化的趋势。前两大品 牌（CR2）的市场集中度从 2019 年的 38%下降到 2025 年的 24%，前十大 品牌（CR10）的市场集中度从 76%降至 68%。这表明细分品牌的增长速度显 著高于综合性头部品牌。此外，从 2019 年至 2021 年间国际综合品牌份 ...

国信证券发布研报称，看好李宁(02331)品牌势能回升带动新的成长机会。预计公司2025-2027年归母净 利润分别为24.0亿元/26.8亿元/30.6亿元，看好后续新品与营销策略对业绩的拉动作用。综合考虑公司作 为本土龙头运动品牌经营反转向上的预期、长期盈利增长潜力以及充沛的现金储备，维持公司21.20- 22.30港元的合理估值区间，对应2026年约19-20倍市盈率，维持"优于大市"投资评级。 国信证券主要观点如下： 运动行业：持续扩容，圈层细分 中国运动户外鞋服行业2025年市场规模约4400亿元，在经历疫情前的高速增长和疫情波动后，目前增速 放缓在6%左右，同时内部结构发生显著变化：1)专业运动品类增长强于时尚运动，包括跑步、户外和 细分小球运动等领域增长强劲，但篮球市场较为承压;2)品牌格局从集中走向分散，从2019-2025年，行 业CR10从76%降至68%，先后发生国货崛起到垂类占优的趋势。 公司近况复盘："国潮旗手"的折戟与重振 2019-2021年，公司在国潮红利中产品力与品牌力共振，业绩大幅增长，2021年净利润达40亿元，相当 于3年前的5.6倍;2022-2024年，随着国潮退温 ...

智通财经记者 | 武冰聪 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 乒乓球奥运冠军马龙和刘诗雯现身北京三里屯太古里，现场聚集了大量球迷。 12月14日，李宁全球首家龙店开业，该品牌同时举办全新荣耀金标产品系列发布仪式。 自2025年5月开始与中国奥委会的合作之后，李宁在10月发布了2026年米兰冬奥会中国体育代表团领奖 装备。此次开设全新的"龙店"，是该公司围绕奥运营销的又一步棋。 在开业当天，智通财经记者走访李宁龙店了解到，相较于其他李宁门店，龙店内在售产品具备差异化。 李宁龙店中商品约90%尚未在其他李宁门店销售，约1/5的SKU使用的李宁运动科技，与2026米兰冬奥 会中国体育代表团领奖装备共用。 其次，在李宁旗下产品中，龙店销售的产品价格布局中高端。龙店内主要销售荣耀金标系列鞋服产品， 产品目标是满足通勤、商务、轻运动等全天候多元场景需求。 记者在现场了解到，其服装价格带位于449-2399元区间，鞋履价格带为799-2299元区间。其中，标价 2299元的鞋款为李宁代表性的跑鞋飞电5 ULTRA，龙店专供提供了荣耀金标黑金、白金限定版，单品售 价与李宁普通门店同款价格保持一致。 开 业时李宁龙店鞋服SKU 超过80 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in sales for Q3, with a focus on promoting Olympic and technology-related marketing initiatives. The short-term sales impact from these initiatives is expected to be limited, but there is optimism for long-term brand recovery [8] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96%. However, net profit is expected to decline by 21.58% to 3,187 million [1] - The company is increasing its store count, with 6,132 main brand stores and 1,480 young brand stores as of the end of Q3 [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 28,676 million in 2024, 28,834 million in 2025, 30,529 million in 2026, and 32,074 million in 2027, with growth rates of 3.90%, 0.55%, 5.88%, and 5.06% respectively [1] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2,313 million, reflecting a significant decline of 23.24% compared to the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.17 in 2024, 0.89 in 2025, 1.00 in 2026, and 1.13 in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 16.95 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 39,948.28 million HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.46 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of Olympic IP with Chinese e-commerce, exemplified by the phenomenon of the Beijing Winter Olympics mascot, Bing Dwen Dwen, and the upcoming marketing strategies for the Milan Winter Olympics [5][22]. Group 1: Bing Dwen Dwen Phenomenon - Bing Dwen Dwen became a cultural sensation during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, with over 100 million users visiting the Tmall Olympic flagship store in just half a month, and 600,000 consumers online daily [3]. - On its first sale day, 100,000 Bing Dwen Dwen toys sold out in one second, and the related Weibo topic garnered over 3 billion views [3]. Group 2: Milan Winter Olympics Marketing Strategy - Alibaba aims to replicate the success of Bing Dwen Dwen by leveraging its e-commerce platform and operational capabilities for the Milan Winter Olympics, launching a "super release" event on October 28 [7][21]. - The event aims to break the geographical limitations of Olympic merchandise sales, allowing global fans to easily purchase Olympic memorabilia [9]. Group 3: Product and Marketing Innovations - The Tmall Olympic flagship store has evolved to offer a diverse range of products, including plush toys and Olympic-themed jewelry, with the first-ever Olympic jewelry series launched exclusively on Tmall [24][29]. - The marketing strategy includes a comprehensive approach involving product launches, live streaming events, and exclusive member benefits to enhance user engagement and loyalty [27][29]. Group 4: Technological Integration - Alibaba's partnership with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has led to significant technological advancements, including cloud services and AI applications that enhance the viewing experience and operational efficiency of Olympic events [33][36]. - The integration of cloud technology has allowed for unprecedented broadcasting capabilities, reducing operational costs while increasing content production [33][36]. Group 5: Long-term Vision and Impact - Alibaba's collaboration with the IOC transcends traditional sponsorship, focusing on creating a deep, value-driven partnership that enhances the Olympic experience for audiences, athletes, and organizers [38][40]. - The ongoing efforts aim to redefine Olympic marketing in the digital age, emphasizing the fusion of technology and sports to reach a broader audience [40].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on overall revenue due to warmer weather, leading to a year-on-year decline in total channel revenue in the mid-single digits for Q3 2025, while maintaining a focus on marketing investments for the Olympics and product innovation [1][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total channel revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend observed from July to September [1]. - Breakdown of revenue by channel shows offline channels experiencing a high single-digit decline, with wholesale channels down significantly and direct sales channels down in the mid-single digits; online channels, however, saw a high single-digit growth [1]. Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts have deepened across channels, with overall channel discounts increasing in the low single digits year-on-year; the wholesale channel saw a slight increase, while direct sales and e-commerce channels experienced a more significant increase [2]. - Inventory levels are manageable, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at 5-6 months; it is expected to be controlled at 4-5 months by year-end [2]. Store Expansion - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores from the previous quarter and 15 stores from the previous year; direct stores decreased by 46 from the previous year, while wholesale stores increased by 61 [2]. Product Innovation - The company is actively promoting new products, including the launch of the superbeng capsule for key products like the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9, as well as new basketball and outdoor products [2]. Marketing Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts, including the launch of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics gear for the Chinese sports delegation and collaborations for skiing events [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company aims to maintain revenue stability through 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively; net profits are projected at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, with a strong buy recommendation maintained [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) with a target price not specified [2][5] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's overall revenue faced pressure due to warmer weather, resulting in a year-on-year decline in total revenue in the mid-single digits. Despite deeper discounts, inventory remains controllable, and the company will continue to optimize channel structure while investing in Olympic marketing and product innovation. Management maintains guidance for flat revenue and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 [1][5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026 [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month from July to September. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while online channels experienced high single-digit growth [5][6] - The overall discount level increased in Q3 2025, with inventory levels remaining healthy and controllable, expected to be within 4-5 months by year-end [5][6] Store Expansion and Product Innovation - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores compared to the previous quarter. The company continues to push for product innovation, with new launches planned in running, basketball, and outdoor categories [5][6] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company is actively promoting its brand through Olympic marketing initiatives, including the release of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation award equipment and collaborations in skiing events [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively. Net profit projections are 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q3 2025 operational data shows a marginal decline in overall revenue, with e-commerce and children's apparel performing relatively better [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Li Ning's total revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with online e-commerce growing at a high single-digit percentage while offline sales declined at a high single-digit percentage [1] - The discount rate has deepened, with a slight increase in inventory turnover ratio due to early stocking, expected to return to 4-5 months by year-end [1] - As of the end of Q3, the inventory turnover ratio was 5-6 months, showing an increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, attributed to early stocking for the upcoming festivals [1] Group 2: Product Category Performance - Running and fitness categories continue to grow, achieving low single-digit growth driven by professional products, while basketball and lifestyle segments are under pressure, with basketball sales declining over 20% [2] - The outdoor category has seen good growth due to industry trends and new product launches, although its scale remains small [2] Group 3: Channel and Store Expansion - As of September 30, Li Ning had 6,132 sales points (excluding YOUNG), a net increase of 33 from the previous quarter, with a net increase of 15 sales points year-to-date [2] - The company plans to maintain its store opening strategy for the year, with a net closure of 10-20 direct sales stores and a net increase of 50 wholesale stores [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains its 2025 performance guidance, expecting revenue to remain flat and net profit margin to be in the high single digits, despite facing some pressure [3] - Upcoming product launches, including the 2026 Winter Olympics gear and new technology platforms, are anticipated to enhance brand competitiveness and sales [3] - The company continues to focus on the sports sector, emphasizing product refinement and brand accumulation for steady growth [3]

Summary of Li Ning's Q3 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning - **Date**: Q3 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Industry Performance - Li Ning's overall channel revenue in Q3 decreased by mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month [2][4][6] - The retail environment remains challenging, with expectations for Q4 to be below prior forecasts [2][8] Financial Metrics - As of the end of Q3, the number of main brand stores increased by 15 to 6,132, while direct-operated stores decreased by 46 [2][4] - The company maintained its annual store opening target but adjusted the net opening/closing numbers for various store types [2][5] Sales and Discounts - Discounts across all channels deepened year-on-year, particularly in direct and e-commerce channels, with offline discounts reaching mid-60% levels [2][6] - The company anticipates that the overall terminal performance will remain below expectations, posing challenges to achieving annual financial guidance [2][8] Product Categories - Pressure in Q3 primarily stemmed from basketball and sports lifestyle categories, with running and fitness growth slowing down [2][15] - Children's products and women's products showed better growth compared to men's products, but overall consumer spending remains weak [2][15] Marketing and Promotions - Li Ning plans to leverage upcoming events, including the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, to enhance brand visibility and support sales growth [4][10][11] - The company is focusing on a comprehensive marketing matrix to support business development and manage costs effectively [3][16] Inventory Management - The company has increased inventory levels in anticipation of the double holiday and "Double Eleven" shopping festival, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-5 months [6][9] - Despite the increase in inventory, Li Ning aims to control discounts to maintain profitability [9][23] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment remains intense, with brands focusing on balancing revenue and inventory, leading to increased discounting pressure [8][20] - Li Ning is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness in running and basketball while addressing the challenges posed by competitors like Nike [8][20][21] Future Outlook - The company is currently formulating its 2026 budget, expecting moderate growth in domestic consumption but acknowledging ongoing business pressures [14] - Li Ning's long-term strategy includes focusing on high-value and functional products, as well as tapping into emerging sports trends [14][27] New Product Launches - Upcoming product launches include new running shoes featuring advanced water-repellent technology and collaborations with popular franchises [18][19] - The company is also enhancing its outdoor product line and integrating elements of traditional Chinese aesthetics into its offerings [21][22] Conclusion - Li Ning is navigating a challenging retail environment with strategic marketing initiatives and product innovations aimed at sustaining growth and enhancing brand equity [27]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q3 2025 operational performance shows a mixed picture with offline sales declining while e-commerce continues to grow robustly, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, Li Ning's overall revenue decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline channel sales experiencing a high single-digit decline and e-commerce sales growing by a high single-digit percentage [1]. - The wholesale channel saw a significant decline in revenue, with a high single-digit percentage drop year-on-year, while the number of wholesale stores stood at 4,881 by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 61 stores since the beginning of the year [1]. - Direct sales revenue also fell by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with the total number of direct stores at 1,251, which is a net decrease of 46 stores since the start of the year [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Young Segment - E-commerce revenue in Q3 2025 increased by a high single-digit percentage, showing an improvement in growth rate compared to the mid-single-digit percentage increase in Q2 [2]. - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, continued its rapid growth, with 1,480 stores by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a net increase of 12 stores since the beginning of the year, and is expected to achieve double-digit growth in revenue [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - The inventory-to-sales ratio is projected to be between 5-6 at the end of Q3 2025, which is an increase from previous periods, driven by preparations for upcoming holidays and promotional events [2]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to decline by 22% [3]. - The company plans to leverage the upcoming Olympic events for marketing activities, which may lead to a new growth phase for the brand in the medium to long term [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.366 billion, 2.540 billion, and 2.759 billion yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].