Market Overview - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed mixed, with the benchmark contract down by 0.10% [1] Global Wheat Production and Exports - AgResource, a private consulting firm, indicated that global wheat exporters produced an additional 1.1 billion bushels of grain for the 2025-26 marketing year [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that as of December 18, net sales of U.S. wheat for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 148,000 tons, down from 433,000 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 46,000 tons, up from 9,000 tons the previous week [1] - U.S. wheat export shipments for the 2025/2026 marketing year totaled 627,000 tons, compared to 491,000 tons the previous week [1] Argentina and Canada Wheat Production - Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina's wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record high of 27.8 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 27.1 million tons, due to high yields as the harvest nears completion [1] - Statistics Canada reported that, except for oats, the delivery volumes of major grains increased in November. The total grain delivery in Canada for November was 5,623,537 tons, a 14.2% increase from 4,923,512 tons in the same month last year. Total wheat deliveries were 3,442,185 tons, a 21% increase from 2,844,116 tons year-over-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global supply surplus and weak competitiveness in the U.S. continue to suppress the rebound potential of wheat prices, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closing down 0.14% as of the week ending November 14, 2025 [1] Market Information - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending November 13, 2025, was 246,533 tons, down from a revised 291,443 tons the previous week [1] - For the crop year to date, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume is 12,363,115 tons, compared to 10,363,288 tons during the same period last year [1] - The U.S. wheat crop year began on June 1 [1] International Supply Data - Reports indicate that Russia's total wheat, barley, and corn exports for November are estimated at 5 million tons, a decrease from 5.4 million tons in October [1] - Specifically, wheat exports fell from 5.1 million tons in October to 4.6 million tons, while barley remained at 2 million tons, and corn doubled from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [1] Future Procurement Goals - The Egyptian supply ministry aims to procure 5 million tons of local wheat in the next quarter [1] Global Inventory Projections - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that the global wheat ending stocks for the 2025-26 season will be 271.43 million tons, exceeding analysts' expectations of 266.13 million tons [1]